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8 week experimental forecast


Ginx snewx

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We just remember the grinch events. 1995, 2002, 2009 were decidedly ungrinchy. 2004 also and 1993.

2002 was one of those Christmas Days that I remember cherishing and full well knowing I would likely not see that again in my life.

Just SW of ALB we had 26", ending early in the morning on the 26th...peaking at 3-6"/hr rates in the evening...Christmas dinner amid just pounding snow and significant amounts. Dream come true.

Christmas Day Severe Nor'easter

Wednesday into early Thursday Morning December 25-26, 2002

"The tremendous amount of snow produced by this classic winter storm is going down into the record books at Albany as being among the top ten largest dumps since records began in 1885. And the 19.2 inches of snow that fell on December 25 calendar day smashed the previous Christmas day record snow at Albany of 11.8 inches which fell in a large storm in 1978. Lighting and thunder occurred in the area of mixed precipitation as low pressure began rapidly intensifying along the coast. With the storm exploding east of New Jersey bands of exceptionally heavy snow began forming and rotating northwest away from the storm center through the area between 1:30pm and 9:00pm. The most intense snow band cranked snow out at five to six inches per hour during the late afternoon and evening over the Catskills and Mohawk valley during the late afternoon and evening. That band of blinding snow pivoted through the Capital Region during the evening and eventually ended up in western New England between 8:00 and 10:00pm. This storm, like most of the weather systems to affect the Northeast this season to date originated in the very active southern jet stream branch."

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2002 was one of those Christmas Days that I remember cherishing and full well knowing I would likely not see that again in my life.

Just SW of ALB we had 26", ending early in the morning on the 26th...peaking at 3-6"/hr rates in the evening...Christmas dinner amid just pounding snow and significant amounts. Dream come true.

Christmas Day Severe Nor'easter

Wednesday into early Thursday Morning December 25-26, 2002

"The tremendous amount of snow produced by this classic winter storm is going down into the record books at Albany as being among the top ten largest dumps since records began in 1885. And the 19.2 inches of snow that fell on December 25 calendar day smashed the previous Christmas day record snow at Albany of 11.8 inches which fell in a large storm in 1978. Lighting and thunder occurred in the area of mixed precipitation as low pressure began rapidly intensifying along the coast. With the storm exploding east of New Jersey bands of exceptionally heavy snow began forming and rotating northwest away from the storm center through the area between 1:30pm and 9:00pm. The most intense snow band cranked snow out at five to six inches per hour during the late afternoon and evening over the Catskills and Mohawk valley during the late afternoon and evening. That band of blinding snow pivoted through the Capital Region during the evening and eventually ended up in western New England between 8:00 and 10:00pm. This storm, like most of the weather systems to affect the Northeast this season to date originated in the very active southern jet stream branch."

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

Still the largest storm I've personally experienced. And then 10 days later another ~20"...that was awesome.

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2002 was one of those Christmas Days that I remember cherishing and full well knowing I would likely not see that again in my life.

Just SW of ALB we had 26", ending early in the morning on the 26th...peaking at 3-6"/hr rates in the evening...Christmas dinner amid just pounding snow and significant amounts. Dream come true.

Christmas Day Severe Nor'easter

Wednesday into early Thursday Morning December 25-26, 2002

"The tremendous amount of snow produced by this classic winter storm is going down into the record books at Albany as being among the top ten largest dumps since records began in 1885. And the 19.2 inches of snow that fell on December 25 calendar day smashed the previous Christmas day record snow at Albany of 11.8 inches which fell in a large storm in 1978. Lighting and thunder occurred in the area of mixed precipitation as low pressure began rapidly intensifying along the coast. With the storm exploding east of New Jersey bands of exceptionally heavy snow began forming and rotating northwest away from the storm center through the area between 1:30pm and 9:00pm. The most intense snow band cranked snow out at five to six inches per hour during the late afternoon and evening over the Catskills and Mohawk valley during the late afternoon and evening. That band of blinding snow pivoted through the Capital Region during the evening and eventually ended up in western New England between 8:00 and 10:00pm. This storm, like most of the weather systems to affect the Northeast this season to date originated in the very active southern jet stream branch."

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

Lots of sleet in that one. In fact it started as snow..and then pounded sleet mixed with occasional big globs of snow most of the day..and then finally later in the afternoon went over to heavy snow.

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2002 was one of those Christmas Days that I remember cherishing and full well knowing I would likely not see that again in my life.

Just SW of ALB we had 26", ending early in the morning on the 26th...peaking at 3-6"/hr rates in the evening...Christmas dinner amid just pounding snow and significant amounts. Dream come true.

Christmas Day Severe Nor'easter

Wednesday into early Thursday Morning December 25-26, 2002

"The tremendous amount of snow produced by this classic winter storm is going down into the record books at Albany as being among the top ten largest dumps since records began in 1885. And the 19.2 inches of snow that fell on December 25 calendar day smashed the previous Christmas day record snow at Albany of 11.8 inches which fell in a large storm in 1978. Lighting and thunder occurred in the area of mixed precipitation as low pressure began rapidly intensifying along the coast. With the storm exploding east of New Jersey bands of exceptionally heavy snow began forming and rotating northwest away from the storm center through the area between 1:30pm and 9:00pm. The most intense snow band cranked snow out at five to six inches per hour during the late afternoon and evening over the Catskills and Mohawk valley during the late afternoon and evening. That band of blinding snow pivoted through the Capital Region during the evening and eventually ended up in western New England between 8:00 and 10:00pm. This storm, like most of the weather systems to affect the Northeast this season to date originated in the very active southern jet stream branch."

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

I live right where the "3" is in the 32 inch zone north of Oneonta.

That was one incredible storm.

My kids have never seen one like it and I hope this winter will be their turn to experience it.

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I remember that Christmas day storm like it was yesterday. It was awful down here, total disappointment. It rained all morning and early afternoon, then changed to a mix of sleet and rain in the afternoon before going to all snow after sunset. The snow fell fast and only for a few hours and ended not before just a few inches fell...mainly on grassy surfaces. Around an inch or two on the streets.

 

The wonder and excitement that was Christmas passed by the time the change over occurred and no one around here really paid attention. I was jealous of the enormous totals just north and west of here, even New York City cashed in with around 10.0 inches I believe.

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  • 2 months later...

I had pretty good success last year with a 6 week forecast and am going to try to extend it to 8 this year. The methods I used are the same as last year so hopefully this works again. My forecast is tamer than what my results show but safe to say its very impressive if you are a fan of winter..

Experimental and for fun

Week of 11/15/14

Well below normal with some snow chances during this period with LES events -3 to -6

Week of 11/22/14

Very much below normal period - 5 to -7 with a good chance at a strong Noreaster with snows to the coast

Week of 11/29/14

A strong soueaster heralds in yet another cold blast -2 to -4

Week of 12/06/14

Return to much below normal cold possible coastal snowstorm around the 4th -4,-6 then a 2-3 day milder pattern

Week of 12/13/14

Couple of very cold days then a thaw, temps normal

Week of 12/20/14

Much warmer, Grinch week ,cutter a temporary pattern flip

Week of 12/27/14

Huge snowstorm, entire country frigid -4/-7

Week of 1/4/15

much much below normal extreme cold and dry - 6 /-8 Epic LES

well I had some ups and downs, no big snowstorm at the end of Dec but did ok at Tday,Christmas and this week. Will issue next eight weeks next week. Just for fun
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2nd 8 week period


 


Experimental and for fun


 


Week ending 1/24/15


+1.-1


Normal climo colder at end of week, possible cutter mid week


 


Week ending 1/31/15


 


-1,-2


Colder ,coastal storm interior heavier snow cold after end of week storm


 


Week ending 02/07115


-3,-5


Cold Possible strong Miller B region wide snowstorm to start, deep cold then end of week back to climo


 


Week ending 02/14/15


-2,-4


Milder to start then climo with moderate snowstorm 9-11 then deep cold


 


Week ending 02/21/15


Frigid -3,-5


Dry but intense cold  entire country then a relaxation then renewed Arctic blast


 


Week ending 02/28/15


-4,-6


Continued Arctic cold with 2 snowstorms this week with possible KU 2nd storm


 


Week ending 03/07/15


-1,-2


Cold start then milder finish 3 day thaw


 


Week ending  03/14/15


-4,-7


much much below normal  possible KU number 2 in this time frame or possibly  the week between of the 21st but two weeks of MidMarch snows appear likely


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2 KUs, what are you predicting for the teles?

I see an strong negative EPO signal and definitely a strong tendency for NAO blocking to especially set up in March. The STJ comes into play in Feb with some decent PNA weeks and some blocky days. Overall things look really good to me for the period.

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  • 1 month later...

 

2nd 8 week period

 

Experimental and for fun

 

Week ending 1/24/15

+1.-1

Normal climo colder at end of week, possible cutter mid week

 

Week ending 1/31/15

 

-1,-2

Colder ,coastal storm interior heavier snow cold after end of week storm

 

Week ending 02/07115

-3,-5

Cold Possible strong Miller B region wide snowstorm to start, deep cold then end of week back to climo

 

Week ending 02/14/15

-2,-4

Milder to start then climo with moderate snowstorm 9-11 then deep cold

 

Week ending 02/21/15

Frigid -3,-5

Dry but intense cold  entire country then a relaxation then renewed Arctic blast

 

Week ending 02/28/15

-4,-6

Continued Arctic cold with 2 snowstorms this week with possible KU 2nd storm

 

Week ending 03/07/15

-1,-2

Cold start then milder finish 3 day thaw

 

Week ending  03/14/15

-4,-7

much much below normal  possible KU number 2 in this time frame or possibly  the week of the  21st but two weeks of MidMarch snows appear likely

 

Much colder and snowier than I thought, still like the last 4 weeks ideas

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