Absolute Humidity Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 November wasn't far off the Novembers of 1972 and 1997 imby...can someone post a map for this year...I lost my link...thanks... I won't post December's map because it's ugly...you can see similarities in some analogs every winter...today reminded me of these two el nino years...I hope Christmas reminds me of 2002 this year.. Both super Nino years - I'd toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I've been wondering right along if the sub-surface and coastal pacific warming wouldn't magnify the admittedly weak El Nino signal into something worth reckoning. No use arguing with 'cold winter' fanbois though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Morning thoughts... Both the GFS ensembles and ECMWF ensembles are in very strong agreement with the evolution of the 500 mb pattern over the next 10 days. The pattern that is forecast to evolve will prove discouraging to those looking forward to winter's cold and snow. Within 6-8 days, both sets of guidance scour the cold from virtually all of Canada. Instead, much above normal readings build eastward from western Canada. By Day 10, almost all of North America is bathed in above normal anomalies. Nevertheless, temptations to write winter's obituary should be held off. If one finds the siren songs of winter's premature demise too tempting to resist, one should probably focus more on the coming joy of Hanukkah and Christmas (sentiments that should always be close at hand regardless of the variability in the weather). Almost certainly, winter will return. The Snow Advance Index (SAI), October Pattern Index, and winters following a summer AO < 0/October AO of -0.5 or below, typically feature a lot of blocking. If one looks at the latest run of the GFS ensembles, even as there is enormous spread when it comes to the AO forecast, one finds more members than not hinting at a negative NAO toward mid-month. With the exception of a single Grinch among the members, the other positive members are also falling toward negative values. Second, with prospects for a moderate El Niño increasing (the latest ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has crept up to +1.0°C), it can be noted that the 1965-66 winter, which featured a moderate to borderline strong El Niño and the development of persistent blocking at the beginning of January (with a brief episode just before mid-December) provides a case example of the role blocking can play. The development of blocking dramatically transformed what had started as a very mild winter into a cold one. Both January and February were cold across much of North America. Some maps follow. The important themes to take away are: 1. A blocky winter still appears very likely. 2. The development of blocking will likely bring about sustained cold and opportunities for snowfall. A "non-Winter" similar to 1997-98, which featured blocking coupled with a super El Niño does not appear likely, as the evolving El Niño is not likely to reach anything close to the magnitude of that ENSO event. For now, patience and perhaps strong nerves are required as a warmer pattern begins to descend on much of North America in coming days. Good post Don. The annual early December panic around here is certainly not aided by the coming warm spell, but everyone should relax as winter is only beginning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Thanks for the update Don. As someone who resides in the great Prairie tundra of southern Manitoba, I can only hope this winter isn't a repeat of 1965-66. That winter featured our second coldest January since 1872, a ridiculous cold snap in mid-February that saw temperatures plunge to -45C (-49F) in Winnipeg, and then a massive early March blizzard (March 4th) that paralyzed the city and much of the Red River valley including North Dakota. After last winter, the prospect of another severe winter up here is not something we're looking forward to! http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=&StationID=3698&Year=1966&Month=2&cmdB1=Go# I too would hate a repeat of that winter. December torch turned into a brutally cold January, but the winter featured very low snowfall. I don't expect a repeat of last winter, which was the most severe on record here (cold+snow), but to have to deal with brutal cold BUT little snow...ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Since it's looking like December could be one of the warmest on record, I thought I'd post this. It's December 1939, which most sources agree was an +ENSO, +PDO winter. December 1939 currently ranks as the warmest on record. And the ensuing January. January 1940, which is the fourth coldest of record behind only 1979, 1977, and 1930. Winter as a whole. Not too dissimilar to NOAA's outlook for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 December 1939 December 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 the records I have for NYC for the 1850's... the cold months were... January 1852... January/February 1854... December 1854... February 1855... January/February 1856... January 1857... February 1858... January 1859... 1852-53 was the mildest winter... 1854-55 and 1855-56 were the coldest... January 1857 was the coldest month until February 1934... This agrees with what I have for Cleveland, Ohio. January 1856 was 15.5F, which would be third coldest of record in the modern dataset, February 1856 was 18.6F, which would be sixth coldest of record in the modern dataset, and March 1856 was 25.2F, which would be third coldest of record in the modern dataset. The winter of 1856-1857 was also an interesting one. November 1856 was cold with a mean temp of 36.1F. December 1856 was quite mild (warmer than November!) with a mean temp of 36.4F. January 1857 was frigid with a mean temp of 14.7F, third coldest in the modern dataset (beating January 1856). February 1857 was very warm with a mean temp of 37.6F, which is warmer than any in the modern dataset (current record: 1998 and 1930, with a mean of 37.5F). March 1857 was cold (several degrees colder than February) with a mean temp of 32.4F. April 1857 was excessively cold with a mean temp of 37.8F (only two tenths of a degree warmer than February!), and would easily be the coldest of the modern dataset (current record: 1881, with a mean of 39.1F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Polar Vortex, I have been posting about 1939-40 for weeks in the SE subforum as well as other sub forums and at another BB. It is one of, if not THE top analogs of mine due to a number of similarities such as late starting nonstrong El Niño, overall warm Oct., overall cold November, solid +PDO, and solid -AO/-NAO for DJF averaged. Also, it followed a winter of weak cold ENSO just like the current winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Polar Vortex, I have been posting about 1939-40 for weeks in the SE subforum as well as other sub forums and at another BB. It is one of, if not THE top analogs of mine due to a number of similarities such as late starting nonstrong El Niño, overall warm Oct., overall cold November, solid +PDO, and solid -AO/-NAO for DJF averaged. Also, it followed a winter of weak cold ENSO just like the current winter. Larry what are next two analogs in addition to 39-40? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Larry what are next two analogs in addition to 39-40? 1911-12 may be close to 2nd best due to its similar ENSO, it following weak cold ENSO, warm SE Oct. (though not through most of the US), cold November, and warm Dec. in E 1/2 of US. 1884-5 may be third. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Just a query; have any of you 'analog fans' stopped to consider that they aren't likely to be accurate anymore? Our snowfall analogs from as recent as the 1970's are completely useless, a result of prevailing winds and systems related to meta-signals (NAO, AO, etc.) having altered, even slightly. Temps are within 'reasonable' boundaries, but not impressively so, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Just a query; have any of you 'analog fans' stopped to consider that they aren't likely to be accurate anymore? Scott, They are just guidelines/tools to give us a general idea of where we may be headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Scott, They are just guidelines/tools to give us a general idea of where we may be headed. So is the CFSv2, but at least its been validated. You're just looking for something to validate your own desire, which is foolishness. At this point CFSv2 is forecasting a warm December generally, with a Christmas/New Year cool down, and a low confidence, warm January after that. Bet the under if you want, but the house always wins over any probabilistic interval, guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 So is the CFSv2, but at least its been validated. You're just looking for something to validate your own desire, which is foolishness. At this point CFSv2 is forecasting a warm December generally, with a Christmas/New Year cool down, and a low confidence, warm January after that. Bet the under if you want, but the house always wins over any probabilistic interval, guaranteed. People ride the analogs over the cliffs every year. It's a fun game, but the sample size is too small and the mechanics are not well enough understood. The NAO, for example, isn't a single fundamental variable -- it's an attempt to quantify what is actually a fairly complicated set of weather patterns, upper air and surface, over a decent chunk of real estate. When we do analog comparisons using just the predominant phase of the NAO over long periods, we've washed out so much relevant information that the comparisons are likely to be useless. Yet the train continues...right off the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 So is the CFSv2, but at least its been validated. You're just looking for something to validate your own desire, which is foolishness. At this point CFSv2 is forecasting a warm December generally, with a Christmas/New Year cool down, and a low confidence, warm January after that. Bet the under if you want, but the house always wins over any probabilistic interval, guaranteed. We'll know the answer by late Dec./January. Analogs vs. CFS 2. Who will win? We'll see! People who have read my posts over the dozen or so years know that I don't forecast based on my desire as that surely would be foolish. 1939-40 has been one of my top analogs ever since October turned out warm. Also, keep in mind that the Cohen SAI/SCE analogs show warmth in much of the first 20 days of Dec. on average. Edit: the CFSv2 is far from reliable in case you don't realize it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 1911-12 may be close to 2nd best due to its similar ENSO, it following weak cold ENSO, warm SE Oct. (though not through most of the US), cold November, and warm Dec. in E 1/2 of US. 1884-5 may be third. Take a look at December 1911 in Toronto (temperatures in degrees Celsius) and then check out how cold January and February 1912 were. Note the blowtorch between December 8-12, 1911, not far off from the time of the month when a torch may occur this December. http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=5051&dlyRange=1840-03-01%7C2013-12-10&cmdB1=Go&Year=1911&Month=12&Day=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 This agrees with what I have for Cleveland, Ohio. January 1856 was 15.5F, which would be third coldest of record in the modern dataset, February 1856 was 18.6F, which would be sixth coldest of record in the modern dataset, and March 1856 was 25.2F, which would be third coldest of record in the modern dataset. The winter of 1856-1857 was also an interesting one. November 1856 was cold with a mean temp of 36.1F. December 1856 was quite mild (warmer than November!) with a mean temp of 36.4F. January 1857 was frigid with a mean temp of 14.7F, third coldest in the modern dataset (beating January 1856). February 1857 was very warm with a mean temp of 37.6F, which is warmer than any in the modern dataset (current record: 1998 and 1930, with a mean of 37.5F). March 1857 was cold (several degrees colder than February) with a mean temp of 32.4F. April 1857 was excessively cold with a mean temp of 37.8F (only two tenths of a degree warmer than February!), and would easily be the coldest of the modern dataset (current record: 1881, with a mean of 39.1F). Cleveland.png Dec 1856 was actually cold...you were looking at Dec 1857. But nevertheless thats an awesome chart! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 November wasn't far off the Novembers of 1972 and 1997 imby...can someone post a map for this year...I lost my link...thanks... I won't post December's map because it's ugly...you can see similarities in some analogs every winter...today reminded me of these two el nino years...I hope Christmas reminds me of 2002 this year... I'm getting that 1972 feel as well. And this year without the little bit of fun we got on December15, 1972 and the big cold of December 16-17, 1972. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 So is the CFSv2, but at least its been validated. You're just looking for something to validate your own desire, which is foolishness. At this point CFSv2 is forecasting a warm December generally, with a Christmas/New Year cool down, and a low confidence, warm January after that. Bet the under if you want, but the house always wins over any probabilistic interval, guaranteed. So is the CFSv2, but at least its been validated. You're just looking for something to validate your own desire, which is foolishness. At this point CFSv2 is forecasting a warm December generally, with a Christmas/New Year cool down, and a low confidence, warm January after that. Bet the under if you want, but the house always wins over any probabilistic interval, guaranteed. CFS v. 2 is trash. I've never in my life witnessed a model flip as much as it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 So is the CFSv2, but at least its been validated. You're just looking for something to validate your own desire, which is foolishness. At this point CFSv2 is forecasting a warm December generally, with a Christmas/New Year cool down, and a low confidence, warm January after that. Bet the under if you want, but the house always wins over any probabilistic interval, guaranteed. You obviously don't know larry. He does not forecast based on his desire. It's based on the research he does which he has presented over and over . Logs of data going back 50, 60, 70 years. It's easy for you to sit here and say he is looking for something to validate his desire as YOU said. Instead of presenting your own data and research to challenge his. It's always easy to trash others who take the time to research and present a valid argument vs taking the time to do research of your own. The only thing foolish is your statement that larry is looking to validate his desire. Ignorant statement. Maybe this belongs in the banter thread but it relates to the topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 NYC monthly and annual temperatures from Governors Island N.Y...Official temperatures are from Central Park NYC from 1869 to the present... year.....Jan..Feb..Mar..Apr..May.June July..Aug..Sep..Oct..Nov..Dec..Annual1822..26.2 29.8 42.1 52.4 63.4 70.6 78.4 74.6 70.9 59.1 48.4 34.5 54.21823..31.2 25.3 36.4 49.6 59.8 68.9 74.9 73.4 64.1 51.8 38.2 34.7 50.51824..35.3 31.3 37.6 49.9 58.0 68.3 73.6 70.4 64.1 55.1 42.7 38.5 52.11825..32.7 32.6 43.7 51.3 62.5 74.6 81.3 74.0 67.4 57.1 43.9 31.7 54.41826..28.9 31.3 37.7 43.3 64.9 69.8 75.9 75.9 68.8 56.5 43.7 33.1 52.51827..24.0 31.9 39.3 52.1 59.5 68.6 75.6 74.3 67.1 55.9 39.7 33.2 52.51828..33.6 41.3 40.7 45.3 60.1 72.2 74.7 76.5 66.8 53.4 44.9 38.7 54.01829..27.1 25.4 37.9 52.3 63.8 71.1 73.7 75.0 64.1 54.8 43.9 41.3 52.51830..31.7 31.9 41.1 52.9 60.3 70.4 78.7 77.1 67.1 58.7 51.1 36.9 54.81831..25.7 26.3 42.0 50.0 61.2 74.1 76.4 76.4 66.9 55.4 43.3 22.2 51.61832..28.5 32.3 39.0 48.3 56.1 67.1 73.3 73.2 65.4 54.1 44.7 36.4 51.51833..35.1 30.9 35.9 51.3 60.7 66.1 74.7 70.6 64.8 52.2 41.5 34.6 51.51834..28.3 37.2 39.6 48.5 56.5 66.7 76.2 71.8 64.2 51.6 41.0 30.7 51.01835..29.4 27.2 35.6 45.6 58.4 67.1 72.5 69.8 60.7 56.4 43.8 28.4 49.61836..27.8 21.5 32.2 44.3 58.0 62.3 73.0 67.9 64.0 45.8 38.7 31.2 47.61837..26.3 29.8 34.9 46.0 55.3 64.5 69.5 68.6 62.2 52.9 44.0 35.6 49.11838..34.5 23.3 37.8 44.2 56.2 70.4 77.2 77.4 65.4 51.7 40.0 29.1 50.31839..30.5 31.9 38.6 49.8 57.8 63.4 73.0 70.8 66.7 56.3 39.9 35.6 51.21840..23.8 34.8 40.3 51.5 58.8 67.0 72.3 73.3 64.0 55.2 43.6 30.3 51.21841..30.8 28.1 37.4 46.0 56.5 69.1 73.9 73.4 68.6 51.8 44.9 33.8 51.21842..33.7 38.1 44.6 51.5 58.5 67.2 74.4 72.9 67.1 51.7 39.2 32.1 53.41843..36.5 25.7 30.3 47.3 59.1 71.2 74.1 74.3 68.0 53.7 40.5 36.1 51.41844..25.7 29.7 38.8 53.5 63.3 69.2 74.5 72.9 65.8 53.5 43.3 34.0 52.01845..35.0 31.9 42.1 50.8 60.5 71.3 76.6 76.0 65.5 55.3 45.7 38.3 53.31846..31.4 27.4 39.3 50.3 60.4 67.4 72.2 73.2 69.7 54.0 48.1 33.9 52.31847..32.4 31.6 36.0 49.5 59.5 70.8 75.6 72.3 64.7 51.4 46.0 37.9 52.31848..33.8 31.2 36.1 50.1 61.4 69.1 74.3 73.5 63.4 54.1 39.7 39.3 52.31849..25.8 24.7 37.8 47.5 55.0 69.5 72.8 72.3 64.3 52.6 48.2 32.1 50.21850..32.8 33.4 36.2 44.1 54.4 68.6 75.1 71.0 64.3 53.8 45.2 33.2 50.91851..32.1 33.7 39.7 49.1 58.2 68.4 75.6 74.0 69.7 57.3 42.2 37.4 52.11852..24.3 30.7 36.7 43.7 60.3 69.7 76.6 73.3 63.8 55.6 46.1 40.4 51.41853..32.1 32.5 39.6 48.1 60.2 71.2 72.8 73.5 66.4 52.0 44.3 33.1 52.21854..28.7 28.2 36.2 45.1 59.9 68.5 75.9 72.9 66.4 55.7 43.7 27.5 50.71855..31.2 23.9 36.0 46.6 58.6 68.1 75.6 70.6 65.6 53.3 44.6 34.7 50.71856..21.9 23.9 30.8 49.9 57.6 71.1 74.6 71.7 66.7 51.5 42.6 37.6 50.01857..19.6 34.5 35.3 43.3 58.2 68.7 74.0 72.7 64.8 53.3 42.5 36.9 50.01858..35.3 24.5 35.0 47.9 56.1 72.3 74.6 71.7 65.4 56.6 40.1 32.9 51.01859..24.5 33.1 43.9 48.3 61.0 67.3 73.2 72.6 63.8 50.5 45.4 30.0 51.41860..30.1 29.0 41.1 47.3 59.7 70.1 74.4 73.8 64.1 55.6 46.1 30.8 51.91861..28.9 35.5 37.5 49.9 56.6 70.2 74.6 72.1 66.9 59.6 43.9 34.8 52.71862..29.4 30.0 36.9 47.7 61.0 68.3 74.1 74.4 67.9 57.6 44.1 33.8 52.11863..34.2 31.4 33.6 48.2 61.8 67.2 76.5 76.8 63.3 55.1 46.6 32.8 52.31864..30.4 32.6 38.3 47.7 63.2 70.0 74.1 76.2 63.8 54.1 46.1 35.9 52.71865..24.7 30.9 43.3 52.4 61.3 73.9 75.4 72.9 71.1 54.2 45.9 37.2 53.61866..27.5 31.5 37.5 51.2 58.4 70.2 78.6 69.4 67.5 56.5 46.2 33.2 52.61867..24.2 37.3 36.3 49.7 56.7 69.5 73.3 73.9 66.6 55.5 44.2 28.5 51.11868..25.4 22.5 37.2 44.8 55.9 68.1 78.4 75.1 66.5 52.4 43.4 29.4 50.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I'm getting that 1972 feel as well. And this year without the little bit of fun we got on December15, 1972 and the big cold of December 16-17, 1972. no way will we get an el nino as strong as that year...It remains to be seen if the AO/NAO go negative later on...I don't believe We will see less than 3" of snow for the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 New Euro Weeklies.....WOW! Pattern flips around DEC 20. DEC 20-JAN5 look beautiful!!!!!!!!!!!11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 The CFSv2 has improved in recent years and usually is skillful within the last 7-10 days before the succeeding month. But there can be big busts, too. The November 2014 forecast: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201411.gif I still think the idea that the pattern will begin to evolve toward a colder one around mid-month +/- a few days remains a plausible scenario. Before then, some transient shots of cold are possible. Parts of North America will probably finish December with warm anomalies, but I suspect that there will be an area of cool anomalies, too. That area will probably be more expansive than anything on the last run of the CFSv2 for December's monthly anomalies if the pattern evolves as I suspect it will and the ECMWF's idea of some periodic cold shots through the medium-term verifies. Of course, longer-range ideas are inherently more risky than near-term ones. It will be interesting to see how things turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Don, thank you for the creative thinking. Incidentally, a very recent short term trend in numerical modeling for the Mid-Atlantic seems to be temperature bias-errors for the 700 mb to 850 mb std. levels. These temperatures verified warmer than were modeled. We've experienced more "33 and rain" than some of the cooler-biased models were modeling, we've missed out on hints of sleet/snow that failed to verify. My hunch is that you are recommending patience. Please, let us not have a winter of 33 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 6, 2014 Author Share Posted December 6, 2014 Don, thank you for the creative thinking. Incidentally, a very recent short term trend in numerical modeling for the Mid-Atlantic seems to be temperature bias-errors for the 700 mb to 850 mb std. levels. These temperatures verified warmer than were modeled. We've experienced more "33 and rain" than some of the cooler-biased models were modeling, we've missed out on hints of sleet/snow that failed to verify. My hunch is that you are recommending patience. Please, let us not have a winter of 33 and rain. I most definitely recommend patience. I still see little reason to worry that this will be a "non-winter" so to speak and that there will be too many nightmares of "33 and rain." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The CFSv2 has improved in recent years and usually is skillful within the last 7-10 days before the succeeding month. But there can be big busts, too. The November 2014 forecast: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201411.gif I still think the idea that the pattern will begin to evolve toward a colder one around mid-month +/- a few days remains a plausible scenario. Before then, some transient shots of cold are possible. Parts of North America will probably finish December with warm anomalies, but I suspect that there will be an area of cool anomalies, too. That area will probably be more expansive than anything on the last run of the CFSv2 for December's monthly anomalies if the pattern evolves as I suspect it will and the ECMWF's idea of some periodic cold shots through the medium-term verifies. Of course, longer-range ideas are inherently more risky than near-term ones. It will be interesting to see how things turn out. Don, very informative stuff as always. Have Nov temp anomalies been released? Would think the CFSv2 bust would be quite large especially for Eastern Con US. But wondering how close predictions were for western US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 NYC monthly and annual temperatures from Governors Island N.Y...Official temperatures are from Central Park NYC from 1869 to the present... year.....Jan..Feb..Mar..Apr..May.June July..Aug..Sep..Oct..Nov..Dec..Annual 1830..31.7 31.9 41.1 52.9 60.3 70.4 78.7 77.1 67.1 58.7 51.1 36.9 54.8 I take that December figure with many grains of salt. Still great work in compiling them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 no way will we get an el nino as strong as that year...It remains to be seen if the AO/NAO go negative later on...I don't believe We will see less than 3" of snow for the season...This time around we have a +PDO and warmer North Atlantic. The sensible weather so far is very much like November and December 1972, even with a much cooler Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 I take that December figure with many grains of salt. Still great work in compiling them. The 54.8 figure is the annual figure. December 1830 had a mean temperature of 36.9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.