Winter 2014-2015 Medium-Term Discussion

[Ottawa Blizzard]

According to a source whose link is now dead (so I can no longer link to the data; it was a MN website), 1855-6 was El Nino fwiw. Here is what I had copied:

 

 

 “Both the 1824-1825 and 1877-1878 winters coincided with El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes [Quinn, 1978], periodic warmings of the far away Equatorial Pacific Ocean that have been linked to anomalous weather conditions in higher latitudes (e.g., heavy winter rainfall in Southern California or mild winters in the Upper Midwest.  Other Quinn identified ENSO's that encompass the 1820-1869 period of study include 1819-20, 1821-22, 1828-29, 1832-33, 1837-38, 1844-45, 1845-46, 1850-51, 1852-53, 1855-56, 1857-58, 1864-65, and 1868-69."

 

So, this list claims that 14 of the 50 winters were El Ninos. That is 28% of them, which is about right.

Thanks for the info. David Ludlum's book is awesome by the way. I had to order it from ABE books online given it's been out of print for decades.

[Mitchel Volk]

I am looking at the current pattern and the middle range projections, thinking that I ,may need to decrease the snowfall and increasing the temps for the northeast for the winter. This coupled with the prospects for a possible moderate to strong El Niño, due to the latest data from the CPC. In addition there is a strong Kelvin wave at the Nino 3.4 region which indicated a possible strong El Niño. I will wait until the next monthly update from the CPC before I update, but at this time I am strongly considering a change from my earlier forecast.

[GaWx]

I am looking at the current pattern and the middle range projections, thinking that I ,may need to decrease the snowfall and increasing the temps for the northeast for the winter. This coupled with the prospects for a possible moderate to strong El Niño, due to the latest data from the CPC. In addition there is a strong Kelvin wave at the Nino 3.4 region which indicated a possible strong El Niño. I will wait until the next monthly update from the CPC before I update, but at this time I am strongly considering a change from my earlier forecast.

 

Mitchel,

 Thanks. However, I can't see there being a strong El Nino as per the ONI. That kind of sudden rise by this winter would be pretty much unprecedented in the records. I'm still going weak to low end moderate. OTOH, I could see strong being possible at some point later in 2015 (after the winter).

[donsutherland1]

Mitchel,

 Thanks. However, I can't see there being a strong El Nino as per the ONI. That kind of sudden rise by this winter would be pretty much unprecedented in the records. I'm still going weak to low end moderate. OTOH, I could see strong at some point later in 2015 (after the winter).

My biggest worry about ENSO is not the strength of El Niño (probably weak-to-moderate) but what I suspect has become close to an equal probability that it could wind up being a basin-wide event (not Central Pacific-based one).

[GaWx]

My biggest worry about ENSO is not the strength of El Niño (probably weak-to-moderate) but what I suspect has become close to an equal probability that it could wind up being a basin-wide event (not Central Pacific-based one).

 

Don,

 Thanks. I assume you're aware that weak basin wide El Nino's can and have been very cold for much of the E US. When it is weak, it apparently doesn't matter much if it is west based, east based, or both. Example: 1976-7 and 1969-70 were east based and both were quite cold. 1976-7 was the coldest on record in Atlanta (back to 1879-80) and other locations.

 

If we end up with weak to low end moderate, a solid +PDO, and a solid -AO, the chances for a cold E Us winter would be very high regardless of where it is centered imo. Of course, snowfall is much harder to predict and will vary a lot by region.

[jdrenken]

My biggest worry about ENSO is not the strength of El Niño (probably weak-to-moderate) but what I suspect has become close to an equal probability that it could wind up being a basin-wide event (not Central Pacific-based one).

 

I have been seeing a basin wide event, as a whole, for quite some time despite the constant beating of chest about a Modoki. Despite the cooling waters in the sub-surface East of 100°W, we are still seeing "El Niño-like" numbers in Region 1+2 this past week.  Looking at the TAO sub-surface and it has a chance to bounce back to boot...

 

Modoki's have Region 1+2 and Region 3 substantially cooler...

 

[leo1000]

Meterologist Larry Cosgrove says it looks likely that a typhoon that will be affecting the Philippines will recurve into a sub- Aleutian Low.

[donsutherland1]

Don,

 Thanks. I assume you're aware that weak basin wide El Nino's can and have been very cold for much of the E US. When it is weak, it apparently doesn't matter much if it is west based, east based, or both. Example: 1976-7 and 1969-70 were east based and both were quite cold. 1976-7 was the coldest on record in Atlanta (back to 1879-80) and other locations.

 

If we end up with weak to low end moderate, a solid +PDO, and a solid -AO, the chances for a cold E Us winter would be very high regardless of where it is centered imo. Of course, snowfall is much harder to predict and will vary a lot by region.

Absolutely. I'm still expecting a colder than normal winter across the eastern CONUS, especially as I believe we'll have a frequent PNA+/AO- setup. I do believe one might be dealing with lower snowfall along the East Coast if a basin-wide event sets up. My worries concern the details, as I remain more confident in a cold winter.

[Absolute Humidity]

Meterologist Larry Cosgrove says it looks likely that a typhoon that will be affecting the Philippines will recurve into a sub- Aleutian Low.

This

[winterymix]

The fact that we've had prior warm intervals does not undermine

real climate change that is verified and ongoing.

[nzucker]

The fact that we've had prior warm intervals does not undermine

real climate change that is verified and ongoing.

This. A warm winter in 1855 doesn't mean that winters now aren't consistently milder due to anthropogenic climate change. 

[dendrite]

Let's keep the climate change discussion for that forum.

[michsnowfreak]

This. A warm winter in 1855 doesn't mean that winters now aren't consistently milder due to anthropogenic climate change. 

1855 wasnt a warm winter. They were saying 1855-56 started warm the first 2-3 weeks of December then turned very cold for the rest of the winter.

 

The reference was about a string of very mild winters in the midwest in the 1820s. And I also agree this isnt the thread nor forum for this discussion, but since its been brought up....Winters are NOT consistently milder here (at least in this part of the midwest).

[JBG]

This. A warm winter in 1855 doesn't mean that winters now aren't consistently milder due to anthropogenic climate change.

Let's keep the climate change discussion for that forum.

1855 wasnt a warm winter. They were saying 1855-56 started warm the first 2-3 weeks of December then turned very cold for the rest of the winter.

The reference was about a string of very mild winters in the midwest in the 1820s. And I also agree this isnt the thread nor forum for this discussion, but since its been brought up....Winters are NOT consistently milder here (at least in this part of the midwest).

Moved the response to this discussion here (link).

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Let's keep the climate change discussion for that forum.

 

 

1855 wasnt a warm winter. They were saying 1855-56 started warm the first 2-3 weeks of December then turned very cold for the rest of the winter.

 

The reference was about a string of very mild winters in the midwest in the 1820s. And I also agree this isnt the thread nor forum for this discussion, but since its been brought up....Winters are NOT consistently milder here (at least in this part of the midwest).

Sorry about that. My intention had never been to start a climate change debate in this thread, simply to draw attention to David Ludlum's amazing work.

[uncle W]

the records I have for NYC for the 1850's...

the cold months were...

January 1852...

January/February 1854...

December 1854...

February 1855...

January/February 1856...

January 1857...

February 1858...

January 1859...

1852-53 was the mildest winter...

1854-55 and 1855-56 were the coldest...

January 1857 was the coldest month until February 1934...

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Toronto Pearson airport tied with 1989 for the coldest November in 25 years, fifth coldest since records began at the airport 75 years ago.

[WidreMann]

Let's keep the climate change discussion for that forum.

It seems relevant if we're comparing winters from 150+ years ago to today.

[JBG]

Sorry about that. My intention had never been to start a climate change debate in this thread, simply to draw attention to David Ludlum's amazing work.

I moved my response to the cross-talk here (link).

[JBG]

January 1857 was the coldest month until February 1934...

What about the December 1917-18 intense cold wave?

 

And what treaty helped end warming then?

[Rainman]

What about the December 1917-18 intense cold wave?

 

And what treaty helped end warming then?

 

First, I will state the obvious:  A treaty would only help reduce warming if a measurable component of the warmth was due to greenhouse gas emissions in the first place.  Second, you're lost.  Go here:  http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum/18-climate-change/ 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

As I posted in the lakes sub-forum, I've found another interesting winter, which apparently was an El Nino, which had a torch December only to have a snowy January and February: the winter of 1923-1924. Below I've posted the Environment Canada data for December 1923 in both Toronto and Ottawa. Notice how mild it was, shades of December 2006. Next, take a look at what January and February 1924 had to offer! It seems to be a recurrent pattern in many El Nino years for December to be warm, followed by a flip to a much colder and snowier regime between Christmas and New Years. The temperatures are in degrees Celsius.

 

Toronto: http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=5051&dlyRange=1840-03-01%7C2013-12-10&cmdB1=Go&Year=1923&Month=12&Day=30

 

Ottawa: http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=4333&dlyRange=1889-11-01%7C2014-01-30&Year=1923&Month=12&cmdB1=Go

 

Another board member drew my attention to the winter of 1911-1912, which also saw a very mild December only to be followed by frigidly cold weather in January and February.

[JBG]

The fact that we've had prior warm intervals does not undermine

real climate change that is verified and ongoing.

Go here (link) for a discussion of the role of political correctness in these discussions.

[donsutherland1]

As I posted in the lakes sub-forum, I've found another interesting winter, which apparently was an El Nino, which had a torch December only to have a snowy January and February: the winter of 1923-1924. Below I've posted the Environment Canada data for December 1923 in both Toronto and Ottawa. Notice how mild it was, shades of December 2006. Next, take a look at what January and February 1924 had to offer! It seems to be a recurrent pattern in many El Nino years for December to be warm, followed by a flip to a much colder and snowier regime between Christmas and New Years. The temperatures are in degrees Celsius.

Much of January and February, unlike December, featured blocking (AO-). I suspect the coming winter will feature a lot of cold once the blocking commences and I still believe odds strongly favor a blocky winter.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

 

Both the GFS ensembles and ECMWF ensembles are in very strong agreement with the evolution of the 500 mb pattern over the next 10 days. The pattern that is forecast to evolve will prove discouraging to those looking forward to winter's cold and snow. Within 6-8 days, both sets of guidance scour the cold from virtually all of Canada. Instead, much above normal readings build eastward from western Canada. By Day 10, almost all of North America is bathed in above normal anomalies.

 

Nevertheless, temptations to write winter's obituary should be held off. If one finds the siren songs of winter's premature demise too tempting to resist, one should probably focus more on the coming joy of Hanukkah and Christmas (sentiments that should always be close at hand regardless of the variability in the weather). Almost certainly, winter will return.

 

The Snow Advance Index (SAI), October Pattern Index, and winters following  a summer AO < 0/October AO of -0.5 or below, typically feature a lot of blocking. If one looks at the latest run of the GFS ensembles, even as there is enormous spread when it comes to the AO forecast, one finds more members than not hinting at a negative NAO toward mid-month. With the exception of a single Grinch among the members, the other positive members are also falling toward negative values.

 

 

Second, with prospects for a moderate El Niño increasing (the latest ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has crept up to +1.0°C), it can be noted that the 1965-66 winter, which featured a moderate to borderline strong El Niño and the development of persistent blocking at the beginning of January (with a brief episode just before mid-December) provides a case example of the role blocking can play. The development of blocking dramatically transformed what had started as a very mild winter into a cold one. Both January and February were cold across much of North America. Some maps follow.

 

 

The important themes to take away are:

 

1. A blocky winter still appears very likely.

2. The development of blocking will likely bring about sustained cold and opportunities for snowfall. A "non-Winter" similar to 1997-98, which featured blocking coupled with a super El Niño does not appear  likely, as the evolving El Niño is not likely to reach anything close to the magnitude of that ENSO event.

 

For now, patience and perhaps strong nerves are required as a warmer pattern begins to descend on much of North America in coming days.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Morning thoughts...

 

Both the GFS ensembles and ECMWF ensembles are in very strong agreement with the evolution of the 500 mb pattern over the next 10 days. The pattern that is forecast to evolve will prove discouraging to those looking forward to winter's cold and snow. Within 6-8 days, both sets of guidance scour the cold from virtually all of Canada. Instead, much above normal readings build eastward from western Canada. By Day 10, almost all of North America is bathed in above normal anomalies.

 

Nevertheless, temptations to write winter's obituary should be held off. If one finds the siren songs of winter's premature demise too tempting to resist, one should probably focus more on the coming joy of Hanukkah and Christmas (sentiments that should always be close at hand regardless of the variability in the weather). Almost certainly, winter will return.

 

The Snow Advance Index (SAI), October Pattern Index, and winters following  a summer AO < 0/October AO of -0.5 or below, typically feature a lot of blocking. If one looks at the latest run of the GFS ensembles, even as there is enormous spread when it comes to the AO forecast, one finds more members than not hinting at a negative NAO toward mid-month. With the exception of a single Grinch among the members, the other positive members are also falling toward negative values.

 

 

Second, with prospects for a moderate El Niño increasing (the latest ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has crept up to +1.0°C), it can be noted that the 1965-66 winter, which featured a moderate to borderline strong El Niño and the development of persistent blocking at the beginning of January (with a brief episode just before mid-December) provides a case example of the role blocking can play. The development of blocking dramatically transformed what had started as a very mild winter into a cold one. Both January and February were cold across much of North America. Some maps follow.

 

 

The important themes to take away are:

 

1. A blocky winter still appears very likely.

2. The development of blocking will likely bring about sustained cold and opportunities for snowfall. A "non-Winter" similar to 1997-98, which featured blocking coupled with a super El Niño does not appear  likely, as the evolving El Niño is not likely to reach anything close to the magnitude of that ENSO event.

 

For now, patience and perhaps strong nerves are required as a warmer pattern begins to descend on much of North America in coming days.

Well said Don. Family and friends are what are most important in life. In the end, the weather will do what it wants to do.

[Isotherm]

Latest ENSO values as of this week now reflect a west-based event, with the eastern regions cooling significantly.

 

Region 4: +1.04C

Region 3.4: +0.94C (down slightly from last week)

Region 3: +0.84C

Region 2: +0.58C

Region 1: +0.21C

 

 

Don, my only disagreement would be that we're highly unlikely to see a trimonthly ONI moderate el nino this winter. With that being said, atmospherically, the pattern is behaving quite like an early season moderate el nino.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

For what it's worth, I watched JBs video on Weatherbell today and he doesn't seem to think it will be as warm as the GFS is depicting. He says it doesn't make sense given the GFS is also forecasting a typhoon to re-curve.

[wxnut]

Morning thoughts...

 

Both the GFS ensembles and ECMWF ensembles are in very strong agreement with the evolution of the 500 mb pattern over the next 10 days. The pattern that is forecast to evolve will prove discouraging to those looking forward to winter's cold and snow. Within 6-8 days, both sets of guidance scour the cold from virtually all of Canada. Instead, much above normal readings build eastward from western Canada. By Day 10, almost all of North America is bathed in above normal anomalies.

 

Nevertheless, temptations to write winter's obituary should be held off. If one finds the siren songs of winter's premature demise too tempting to resist, one should probably focus more on the coming joy of Hanukkah and Christmas (sentiments that should always be close at hand regardless of the variability in the weather). Almost certainly, winter will return.

 

The Snow Advance Index (SAI), October Pattern Index, and winters following  a summer AO < 0/October AO of -0.5 or below, typically feature a lot of blocking. If one looks at the latest run of the GFS ensembles, even as there is enormous spread when it comes to the AO forecast, one finds more members than not hinting at a negative NAO toward mid-month. With the exception of a single Grinch among the members, the other positive members are also falling toward negative values.

 

 

Second, with prospects for a moderate El Niño increasing (the latest ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has crept up to +1.0°C), it can be noted that the 1965-66 winter, which featured a moderate to borderline strong El Niño and the development of persistent blocking at the beginning of January (with a brief episode just before mid-December) provides a case example of the role blocking can play. The development of blocking dramatically transformed what had started as a very mild winter into a cold one. Both January and February were cold across much of North America. Some maps follow.

 

 

The important themes to take away are:

 

1. A blocky winter still appears very likely.

2. The development of blocking will likely bring about sustained cold and opportunities for snowfall. A "non-Winter" similar to 1997-98, which featured blocking coupled with a super El Niño does not appear  likely, as the evolving El Niño is not likely to reach anything close to the magnitude of that ENSO event.

 

For now, patience and perhaps strong nerves are required as a warmer pattern begins to descend on much of North America in coming days.

 

 

Thanks for the update Don. As someone who resides in the great Prairie tundra of southern Manitoba, I can only hope this winter isn't a repeat of 1965-66. That winter featured our second coldest January since 1872, a ridiculous cold snap in mid-February that saw temperatures plunge to -45C (-49F) in Winnipeg, and then a massive early March blizzard (March 4th) that paralyzed the city and much of the Red River valley including North Dakota. After last winter, the prospect of another severe winter up here is not something we're looking forward to! 

 

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=&StationID=3698&Year=1966&Month=2&cmdB1=Go#

[uncle W]

 November wasn't far off the Novembers of 1972 and 1997 imby...can someone post a map for this year...I lost my link...thanks...

I won't post December's map because it's ugly...you can see similarities in some analogs every winter...today reminded me of these two el nino years...I hope Christmas reminds me of 2002 this year...