TeleConnectSnow Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 With the pattern rapidly changing in the past couple of days presenting us with a new outlook on what NOV might bring, winter may be upon us sooner than expected. CFS (Yes, I know why mention them), however, they are coming in COLDER and COLDER and more consistent. That along with the AO looking to dive into the negative territory, paired with a negative NAO, positive (?) PNA, things are looking better and better in the medium/long range. Lets get this disco started! WINTER WEATHER WEENIES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 2, 2014 Author Share Posted November 2, 2014 Euro is not just seeing the AO going slightly negative, but has it projected to reach -3 to -4. Very interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 There are a few interesting time frames coming up with the potential of a coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 TeleConnectSnow i agree november may be getting us into winter mighty fast with the -AO pretty much tanking and cold air ready to dump into the central and eastern US by mid month looks like. This winter looks pretty exciting looking at the early signs, may we see snow threats in november? I dont know about that but how can you not like what we are seeing currently for next month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 TeleConnectSnow i agree november may be getting us into winter mighty fast with the -AO pretty much tanking and cold air ready to dump into the central and eastern US by mid month looks like. This winter looks pretty exciting looking at the early signs, may we see snow threats in november? I dont know about that but how can you not like what we are seeing currently for next month Whether or not we get snow this month, it's important to me that we are seeing these coastal storms pop up on the models. An active southern jet is what we need in order to get some blockbuster storms. I am now getting excited for the times ahead like most on here. The teleconnections are right where we want them at this stage and look to get even better in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Whether or not we get snow this month, it's important to me that we are seeing these coastal storms pop up on the models. An active southern jet is what we need in order to get some blockbuster storms. I am now getting excited for the times ahead like most on here. The teleconnections are right where we want them at this stage and look to get even better in the medium range. agreed. JB has really beat the drum today on weatherbell in his excerpts and has the models to back him up. I want to try and stay level headed but the pattern going forward into atleast November looks ripe for more coastals like you said and cold air and troughs in the east. only thing I want to start get some consistency is a +PNA/-NAO regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 agreed. JB has really beat the drum today on weatherbell in his excerpts and has the models to back him up. I want to try and stay level headed but the pattern going forward into atleast November looks ripe for more coastals like you said and cold air and troughs in the east. only thing I want to start get some consistency is a +PNA/-NAO regime. Exactly. It's not definite that we will have a -AO, but its looking GREAT, and I mean GREAT. We just need the PNA and NAO to cooperate and this will be a winter to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Exactly. It's not definite that we will have a -AO, but its looking GREAT, and I mean GREAT. We just need the PNA and NAO to cooperate and this will be a winter to remember. the -AO will be tanked in big part to the recurved typhoon and historic snow cover in Canada and Eurasia. the +PNA/-NAO and HOPEFULLY -EPO we can get to work in unison as well and then we could talk possible big snow storm ramifications for the east coast come December. having the aluetian low move west is only going to help us out, IMO we should be excited for what we are seeing but keep it tempered since this is November 1st and not December 1st. We have climatology against snow for us until after turkey day/ December 1st, cant say it wont happen but unless you live well N&W of NYC we should not be expecting anything more than maybe a coating-2" event until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Looking like a cold November with the tellies in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 Currently blasting some christmas music to get me in the mood lol. However, thanksgiving comes first. LOTS and LOTS of food. Back on topic Yes, I am interested to see the runs tonight to see if they keep those coastals around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Currently blasting some christmas music to get me in the mood lol. However, thanksgiving comes first. LOTS and LOTS of food. Back on topic Yes, I am interested to see the runs tonight to see if they keep those coastals around. when this pattern sets up and teleconnectors line up in unison I want to see how long the pattern will lock in for. Could it run deep into December take a break and come back or not, leaving us with a front ended winter with no real action the rest of the winter? or bookend? or wire-to-wire like last year? LOTS to look into in the long term as we head deeper into this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Currently blasting some christmas music to get me in the mood lol. However, thanksgiving comes first. LOTS and LOTS of food. Back on topic Yes, I am interested to see the runs tonight to see if they keep those coastals around. GFS has a coastal for next weekend but it's warm. I thought I was the only one who listens to Christmas songs this year. Heck, I listen to them in the summer lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 GFS has a coastal for next weekend but it's warm. I thought I was the only one who listens to Christmas songs this year. Heck, I listen to them in the summer lol. Do you listen to them when you are doing verticals in the PJs ? lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Do you listen to them when you are doing verticals in the PJs ? lol.. Not at all.I don't work in the PJ's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 EURO looks not just cold, but BRUTAL towards the end of the run. This is getting kinda crazy to think this might happen this early in the year. Yes, it might be overdoing the cold, but still a GREAT signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 Question for the METS: Am I right by saying that the Super Typhoon right now will help our causes and enhance things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 EURO looks not just cold, but BRUTAL towards the end of the run. This is getting kinda crazy to think this might happen this early in the year. Yes, it might be overdoing the cold, but still a GREAT signal. just wondering, is your annual snowfall similar to that of NYC? Correct me if I'm wrong but you're in West Chester PA, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 just wondering, is your annual snowfall similar to that of NYC? Correct me if I'm wrong but you're in West Chester PA, correct? Last year was a great year here in West Chester. We were in spots where the heaviest snows fell. But yes, I believe it is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Last year was a great year here in West Chester. We were in spots where the heaviest snows fell. But yes, I believe it is similar. gotcha, and yes i remember philly did very well last year. Anyway, its good to have you on this site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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