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MEDIUM/LONG RANGE Disco Winter 2014/2015


TeleConnectSnow

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With the pattern rapidly changing in the past couple of days presenting us with a new outlook on what NOV might bring, winter may be upon us sooner than expected. 

 

CFS (Yes, I know why mention them), however, they are coming in COLDER and COLDER and more consistent. That along with the AO looking to dive into the negative territory, paired with a negative NAO, positive (?) PNA, things are looking better and better in the medium/long range.

 

 

 

Lets get this disco started!

WINTER WEATHER WEENIES

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TeleConnectSnow i agree november may be getting us into winter mighty fast with the -AO pretty much tanking and cold air ready to dump into the central and eastern US by mid month looks like. This winter looks pretty exciting looking at the early signs, may we see snow threats in november? I dont know about that but how can you not like what we are seeing currently for next month

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TeleConnectSnow i agree november may be getting us into winter mighty fast with the -AO pretty much tanking and cold air ready to dump into the central and eastern US by mid month looks like. This winter looks pretty exciting looking at the early signs, may we see snow threats in november? I dont know about that but how can you not like what we are seeing currently for next month

Whether or not we get snow this month, it's important to me that we are seeing these coastal storms pop up on the models. An active southern jet is what we need in order to get some blockbuster storms. I am now getting excited for the times ahead like most on here. The teleconnections are right where we want them at this stage and look to get even better in the medium range.

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Whether or not we get snow this month, it's important to me that we are seeing these coastal storms pop up on the models. An active southern jet is what we need in order to get some blockbuster storms. I am now getting excited for the times ahead like most on here. The teleconnections are right where we want them at this stage and look to get even better in the medium range.

agreed. JB has really beat the drum today on weatherbell in his excerpts and has the models to back him up. I want to try and stay level headed but the pattern going forward into atleast November looks ripe for more coastals like you said and cold air and troughs in the east. only thing I want to start get some consistency is a +PNA/-NAO regime.

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agreed. JB has really beat the drum today on weatherbell in his excerpts and has the models to back him up. I want to try and stay level headed but the pattern going forward into atleast November looks ripe for more coastals like you said and cold air and troughs in the east. only thing I want to start get some consistency is a +PNA/-NAO regime.

Exactly. It's not definite that we will have a -AO, but its looking GREAT, and I mean GREAT. We just need the PNA and NAO to cooperate and this will be a winter to remember. 

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Exactly. It's not definite that we will have a -AO, but its looking GREAT, and I mean GREAT. We just need the PNA and NAO to cooperate and this will be a winter to remember. 

the -AO will be tanked in big part to the recurved typhoon and historic snow cover in Canada and Eurasia. the +PNA/-NAO and HOPEFULLY -EPO we can get to work in unison as well and then we could talk possible big snow storm ramifications for the east coast come December. having the aluetian low move west is only going to help us out, IMO we should be excited for what we are seeing but keep it tempered since this is November 1st and not December 1st. We have climatology against snow for us until after turkey day/ December 1st, cant say it wont happen but unless you live well N&W of NYC we should not be expecting anything more than maybe a coating-2" event until then.

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Currently blasting some christmas music to get me in the mood lol. However, thanksgiving comes first. LOTS and LOTS of food.

 

Back on topic

 

Yes, I am interested to see the runs tonight to see if they keep those coastals around.

when this pattern sets up and teleconnectors line up in unison I want to see how long the pattern will lock in for. Could it run deep into December take a break and come back or not, leaving us with a front ended winter with no real action the rest of the winter? or bookend? or wire-to-wire like last year? LOTS to look into in the long term as we head deeper into this month

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Currently blasting some christmas music to get me in the mood lol. However, thanksgiving comes first. LOTS and LOTS of food.

 

Back on topic

 

Yes, I am interested to see the runs tonight to see if they keep those coastals around.

GFS has a coastal for next weekend but it's warm. I thought I was the only one who listens to Christmas songs this year. Heck, I listen to them in the summer lol.

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EURO looks not just cold, but BRUTAL towards the end of the run. This is getting kinda crazy to think this might happen this early in the year. Yes, it might be overdoing the cold, but still a GREAT signal.

just wondering, is your annual snowfall similar to that of NYC? Correct me if I'm wrong but you're in West Chester PA, correct?

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