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Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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0z Euro is a little different for late Sunday and into Monday. Develops a gulf low that goes up to WV (1004mb) and then ALB (999mb). Still fairly minor...but some snow for parts of  S IL, IN, SE MI, and ON...but OH gets the "brunt". There's some ensemble support, but still a lot of spread.

 

In the extended, 0z Euro ensembles break down the cold pattern in the 11-15 day timeframe.

 

Northwest trend or suppression FTW? I know that we're only talking an inch or so, but it's always a kick where it counts to have miss to the south and east, especially in mid-November.

 

EDIT: Ninja'd by Hoosier

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DVN mentioning 1-2" amounts Saturday night into Sunday and GFS still suggesting fairly deep growth zones (200-300mb) across the DVN/LOT area. 

 

 

The DVN AFD also mentioning this...

 

SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HARD TO BELIEVE IT IS ONLY MID  
NOVEMBER...BUT COLDER AIR MAY BE POISED TO ARRIVE DURING THIS TIME.  
MODELS IN AGREEMENT BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE  
MIDWEST. ANOTHER JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAX WILL  
ORIGINATE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND PROPAGATE STRAIGHT TO THE SOUTH  
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. IF IT WERE JANUARY THIS  
TYPE OF AIRMASS TRAJECTORY COULD RESULT IN SOME BRUTALLY COLD TEMPS.  
CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BUT THIS MAY TREND  
COLDER. 850 TEMPS NEAR -18 C WOULD BE 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW  
NORMAL. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LOOK LIKE A REAL POSSIBILITY  
ESPECIALLY NW OF DAVENPORT.

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interesting read....

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EST WED NOV 12 2014

VALID 12Z SAT NOV 15 2014 - 12Z WED NOV 19 2014

...NORTH AMERICAN 'COLD SNAP' CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

...OVERVIEW...
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 TAKES SHAPE ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST---EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DRAPED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CONUS---EAST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
FASCINATING 'SHAKE-UP' OR 'RE-SHUFFLE' IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERIC
CIRCULATION HIGH-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN TAKING PLACE---STARTED IN
MOTION BY ENERGY AND MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
(TROPICAL SYSTEM 'NURI'). THE ENTIRE AIRMASS HAS PUSHED NORTH OF
THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. BARROW ALASKA WAS WARMER EARLIER THIS MORNING
(UTC TIME) THAN AMARILLO TEXAS.  

USING THE WPC TELECONNECTION TOOLS IS INTERESTING---THE POSITIVE
ANOMALY (UPPER-LEVEL HIGH) CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST ALASKA SUGGESTS
MAINTAINING A STEADY DRAW OF CANADIAN ARCTIC AIR INTO
MONTANA...WYOMING AND THE DAKOTAS---SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS---THROUGH THE DAY +8/+11 TIME FRAME. CONTRAST THIS TO
THE NEGATIVE ANOMALY---TELECONNECTING THE FORECAST CALLING FOR AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST HUDSON BAY. THE TELECONNECTION
SHIFTS THE ENTIRE COLD 'FOCUS' AT DAY +8/+11 TO THE
MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS---ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE
LANDMASS AREA EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SO THE QUESTION
IS---WHICH ANOMALY TO BASE THE FORECAST ON? OR EVEN BETTER---WHICH
TELECONNECTION IS MORE SIGNIFICANT AND 'UNUSUAL'?
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS THERE NOW...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW?
ANOTHER 36 HOURS AWAY AND HARD TO TELL TODAY WITH THE AIR
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT---ALONG THE EAST COAST
TODAY---UNSEASONABLY MILD.

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LOT

 

PPER LEVEL ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO  
UNDERCUT THE OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BY  
FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD INDUCE SOME LOWER  
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION AS IT  
APPROACHES THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN THAT THE AIRMASS ACROSS  
THE REGION WILL BE COLD...ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WITH  
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AREA-WIDE. IT APPEARS THAT  
THIS COULD BE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT FOR THE AREA...AS  
ASCENT REMAINS FAIRLY BROAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH NO MAJOR  
FOCUS. AS SUCH...I HAVE UPPED POPS FOR SNOW INTO THE LIKELY  
CATEGORY...MAINLY FOR SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH OVERALL QPF WILL  
LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY 0.1" OR LESS) WITH THIS EVENT IT  
APPEARS THE SNOW RATIO COULD BE HIGHER THAN A TYPICAL MID NOVEMBER  
SNOWFALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE MORE TYPICAL OF  
JANUARY...WITH A DEEP SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND 10,000  
FEET DEEP. AS SUCH...I HAVE GONE WITH ABOUT A 15 TO 1 RATIO...WHICH  
WOULD YIELD AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW.
 
 

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DTX released their winter outlook.  It looks like they hit on the marginal weak el Nino, negative QBO, and analogs that support a -NAO/-AO regime.  It seems to be in agreement with what most people have been saying.  The first couple slides about last winter are interesting too.

 

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=105043&source=0

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DVN also mentioning the secondary wave Sunday night

 

BY THE TIME IT WINDS DOWN LATER SAT NIGHT  
AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT LSR/S OF 16:1 TO 18:1 BECAUSE OF COLD  
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES...A WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCHES WILL LOOK TO  
OCCUR ACRS MOST OF THE DVN CWA. SOME LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS MAY BE  
POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THE SNOW FLIES ON SAT...RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE  
APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.  
MORE FCST UNCERTAINTY POPS UP FOR SUNDAY...WITH DIGGING UPPER TROF  
STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN GRT LKS. THE 12Z GFS IS MAINLY DRY  
WITH MAYBE JUST SOME FLURRIES FRO A TIME IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF  
THE DVN CWA...WHILE THE BULLISH ECMWF PRODUCES A SECONDARY ISENTROPIC  
LIFT EVENT UNDER THE TROF/S SOUTHEASTERLIES AGAIN ACRS THE DVN CWA/S  
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF FROM MID SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY  
EVENING...AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS BY  
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

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har har buckeye. I was just making a joke. Sorry, I won't bother you anymore. So what about Monday? The GFS keeps on pushing it away but the ECMWF is interesting.

 

Oh it's all good, it's only weather.   So I know what the models say about Monday....now I want to know what angrysummons says.   I say < 1 inch....grassy surfaces, car tops, and wet pavement.

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oh god DAB reappears :lol:. Id say an inch is a good starting point for sunday.

I agree 1" is a good starting point for parts of Iowa, Illinois and Indiana.

On the other hand for SEMI 0.3" is a good starting point. It won't have much fanfare left when it makes it here.

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This makes no sense.

 

You mean you wouldn't be surprised if it is moderate.

 

 

 

it's just the clumsy wording of a chronic hedger...he's calling for a moderate el nino (a fine call i guess but just wanted to clarify)

 

anyways the first chance for meaningful snow in this sub comes after temps moderate towards the end of the month

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0z Euro and its ensembles have a storm signal in the Nov 21-23 timeframe. Lala land, so we'll see if anything comes to fruition. 

 

In the far extended, past day 10, Euro ensembles go torch. Shorts, flip-flops and turkey?

 

Euro weeklies come out tonight, but its performance lately has been less than stellar.

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That period around Thanksgiving looks active, one way or another. 

 

12z GEFS are fairly juiced.

 

And I guess shouldn't have used torch in my previous post...gets thrown about too easily. Rather, EPS looked like a relaxation with some warm days in the 10-15 day timeframe. They too though, look rather active around T-day week. 

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12z GEFS are fairly juiced.

 

And I guess shouldn't have used torch in my previous post...gets thrown about too easily. Rather, EPS looked like a relaxation with some warm days in the 10-15 day timeframe. They too though, look rather active around T-day week. 

 

 

Yeah, multi-model/ensemble support for active weather.  Whether we can pull off a big ticket item remains to be seen.  Some interesting years have been showing up on the CPC analogs...ones that resulted in big storms with even some severe weather outbreaks in part of the region. 

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Yeah, multi-model/ensemble support for active weather.  Whether we can pull off a big ticket item remains to be seen.  Some interesting years have been showing up on the CPC analogs...ones that resulted in big storms with even some severe weather outbreaks in part of the region. 

 

Time for a classic hooker through Indiana and Michigan to give Cyclone and the Milwaukee/Madison folks the lovin.

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