A-L-E-K Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 east coast event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 east coast event Climo will make it trend north!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 0z Euro is a little different for late Sunday and into Monday. Develops a gulf low that goes up to WV (1004mb) and then ALB (999mb). Still fairly minor...but some snow for parts of S IL, IN, SE MI, and ON...but OH gets the "brunt". There's some ensemble support, but still a lot of spread. In the extended, 0z Euro ensembles break down the cold pattern in the 11-15 day timeframe. Northwest trend or suppression FTW? I know that we're only talking an inch or so, but it's always a kick where it counts to have miss to the south and east, especially in mid-November. EDIT: Ninja'd by Hoosier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 DVN mentioning 1-2" amounts Saturday night into Sunday and GFS still suggesting fairly deep growth zones (200-300mb) across the DVN/LOT area. The DVN AFD also mentioning this... SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HARD TO BELIEVE IT IS ONLY MID NOVEMBER...BUT COLDER AIR MAY BE POISED TO ARRIVE DURING THIS TIME. MODELS IN AGREEMENT BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAX WILL ORIGINATE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND PROPAGATE STRAIGHT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. IF IT WERE JANUARY THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS TRAJECTORY COULD RESULT IN SOME BRUTALLY COLD TEMPS. CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BUT THIS MAY TREND COLDER. 850 TEMPS NEAR -18 C WOULD BE 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LOOK LIKE A REAL POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY NW OF DAVENPORT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 east coast event Most of us should still get at least a DAB from the weekend event, either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 east coast event We'll see if your reverse psychology works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 interesting read.... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1100 AM EST WED NOV 12 2014VALID 12Z SAT NOV 15 2014 - 12Z WED NOV 19 2014...NORTH AMERICAN 'COLD SNAP' CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK......OVERVIEW...DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 TAKES SHAPE ALONGTHE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST---EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITHUNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DRAPED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CONUS---EASTOF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE....UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...FASCINATING 'SHAKE-UP' OR 'RE-SHUFFLE' IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERICCIRCULATION HIGH-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN TAKING PLACE---STARTED INMOTION BY ENERGY AND MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC(TROPICAL SYSTEM 'NURI'). THE ENTIRE AIRMASS HAS PUSHED NORTH OFTHE ARCTIC CIRCLE. BARROW ALASKA WAS WARMER EARLIER THIS MORNING(UTC TIME) THAN AMARILLO TEXAS. USING THE WPC TELECONNECTION TOOLS IS INTERESTING---THE POSITIVEANOMALY (UPPER-LEVEL HIGH) CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST ALASKA SUGGESTSMAINTAINING A STEADY DRAW OF CANADIAN ARCTIC AIR INTOMONTANA...WYOMING AND THE DAKOTAS---SIMILAR TO THE CURRENTCONDITIONS---THROUGH THE DAY +8/+11 TIME FRAME. CONTRAST THIS TOTHE NEGATIVE ANOMALY---TELECONNECTING THE FORECAST CALLING FOR ANUPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST HUDSON BAY. THE TELECONNECTIONSHIFTS THE ENTIRE COLD 'FOCUS' AT DAY +8/+11 TO THEMIDWEST...GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS---ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRELANDMASS AREA EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SO THE QUESTIONIS---WHICH ANOMALY TO BASE THE FORECAST ON? OR EVEN BETTER---WHICHTELECONNECTION IS MORE SIGNIFICANT AND 'UNUSUAL'?THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS THERE NOW...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW?ANOTHER 36 HOURS AWAY AND HARD TO TELL TODAY WITH THE AIRTEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT---ALONG THE EAST COASTTODAY---UNSEASONABLY MILD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 MPX calling for 2-3" event for Saturday and giving preference to the Euro. Areas to the south of the metro that got the shaft from Monday's storm should get a little love. Should have a nice DGZ to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Most of us should still get at least a DAB from the weekend event, either way.oh god DAB reappears . Id say an inch is a good starting point for sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 say an inch is a good starting point for sunday. bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 LOT PPER LEVEL ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO UNDERCUT THE OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BY FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD INDUCE SOME LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN THAT THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE COLD...ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AREA-WIDE. IT APPEARS THAT THIS COULD BE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT FOR THE AREA...AS ASCENT REMAINS FAIRLY BROAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH NO MAJOR FOCUS. AS SUCH...I HAVE UPPED POPS FOR SNOW INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...MAINLY FOR SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH OVERALL QPF WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY 0.1" OR LESS) WITH THIS EVENT IT APPEARS THE SNOW RATIO COULD BE HIGHER THAN A TYPICAL MID NOVEMBER SNOWFALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY...WITH A DEEP SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND 10,000 FEET DEEP. AS SUCH...I HAVE GONE WITH ABOUT A 15 TO 1 RATIO...WHICH WOULD YIELD AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 DTX released their winter outlook. It looks like they hit on the marginal weak el Nino, negative QBO, and analogs that support a -NAO/-AO regime. It seems to be in agreement with what most people have been saying. The first couple slides about last winter are interesting too. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=105043&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 DVN also mentioning the secondary wave Sunday night BY THE TIME IT WINDS DOWN LATER SAT NIGHT AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT LSR/S OF 16:1 TO 18:1 BECAUSE OF COLD VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES...A WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCHES WILL LOOK TO OCCUR ACRS MOST OF THE DVN CWA. SOME LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. BEFORE THE SNOW FLIES ON SAT...RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. MORE FCST UNCERTAINTY POPS UP FOR SUNDAY...WITH DIGGING UPPER TROF STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN GRT LKS. THE 12Z GFS IS MAINLY DRY WITH MAYBE JUST SOME FLURRIES FRO A TIME IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE DVN CWA...WHILE THE BULLISH ECMWF PRODUCES A SECONDARY ISENTROPIC LIFT EVENT UNDER THE TROF/S SOUTHEASTERLIES AGAIN ACRS THE DVN CWA/S SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF FROM MID SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 So continues the winter of 2013 to 2015 . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Pass on this five and dime garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I would not be surprised if the el nino isn't moderate by December/January. Really has blossomed over the last 2 weeks. This makes no sense. You mean you wouldn't be surprised if it is moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 This makes no sense. You mean you wouldn't be surprised if it is moderate. someday I will read an angrysummons post from first word to last and it will make complete sense.... ....and I will wonder, hath hell frozen over? Apparently still hot as hell in hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 har har buckeye. I was just making a joke. Sorry, I won't bother you anymore. So what about Monday? The GFS keeps on pushing it away but the ECMWF is interesting. Oh it's all good, it's only weather. So I know what the models say about Monday....now I want to know what angrysummons says. I say < 1 inch....grassy surfaces, car tops, and wet pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 oh god DAB reappears . Id say an inch is a good starting point for sunday. I agree 1" is a good starting point for parts of Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. On the other hand for SEMI 0.3" is a good starting point. It won't have much fanfare left when it makes it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I agree 1" is a good starting point for parts of Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. On the other hand for SEMI 0.3" is a good starting point. It won't have much fanfare left when it makes it here. uhoh...early-season pessimist dmc is back . 0.3" is too low, as it stands now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 This makes no sense. You mean you wouldn't be surprised if it is moderate. it's just the clumsy wording of a chronic hedger...he's calling for a moderate el nino (a fine call i guess but just wanted to clarify) anyways the first chance for meaningful snow in this sub comes after temps moderate towards the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 a couple visuals for snowpack....I know they aren't 100% accurate...but trend watching if nothing else... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 0z Euro and its ensembles have a storm signal in the Nov 21-23 timeframe. Lala land, so we'll see if anything comes to fruition. In the far extended, past day 10, Euro ensembles go torch. Shorts, flip-flops and turkey? Euro weeklies come out tonight, but its performance lately has been less than stellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 If it's anything like last year....and most of this year for that matter....I would be willing to bet the torch signal becomes muted as we get closer. That being said, the fact that getting temps back to near normal is considered a torch is telling for how anomalous things are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 12Z GFS still looking interesting for 21st/22nd timeframe and still hangs onto something in the turkey day range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 That period around Thanksgiving looks active, one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 That period around Thanksgiving looks active, one way or another. 12z GEFS are fairly juiced. And I guess shouldn't have used torch in my previous post...gets thrown about too easily. Rather, EPS looked like a relaxation with some warm days in the 10-15 day timeframe. They too though, look rather active around T-day week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 That period around Thanksgiving looks active, one way or another. The week before might be too. The 12z GFS is much more colder than previous runs across srn Canada and the nrn CONUS around the day 7/8 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 12z GEFS are fairly juiced. And I guess shouldn't have used torch in my previous post...gets thrown about too easily. Rather, EPS looked like a relaxation with some warm days in the 10-15 day timeframe. They too though, look rather active around T-day week. Yeah, multi-model/ensemble support for active weather. Whether we can pull off a big ticket item remains to be seen. Some interesting years have been showing up on the CPC analogs...ones that resulted in big storms with even some severe weather outbreaks in part of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Yeah, multi-model/ensemble support for active weather. Whether we can pull off a big ticket item remains to be seen. Some interesting years have been showing up on the CPC analogs...ones that resulted in big storms with even some severe weather outbreaks in part of the region. Time for a classic hooker through Indiana and Michigan to give Cyclone and the Milwaukee/Madison folks the lovin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.