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Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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That is absolute insanity.  Not that we should believe it will get that cold, but for the heck of it I looked up our record low for that day and it's 7 degrees.  This is a reporting site that has been around for over 100 years.

 

Temps similar to the GGEM wouldn't be too far fetched if we can get a wound up storm like it shows (to pull the core of the PV southward into our region) and a bit of snowcover.

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Feels like January or the heart of winter looking at forecast soundings for the possible light snow Saturday night into Sunday around here. Not a worry in the world are borderline temperatures, but now it's how deep is the DGZ? 300mb deep growth zone/nearly 150mb isothermal layer around -15 deg C in mid November. I'll take it.

 

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Feels like January or the heart of winter looking at forecast soundings for the possible light snow Saturday night into Sunday around here. Not a worry in the world are borderline temperatures, but now it's how deep is the DGZ? 300mb deep growth zone/nearly 150mb isothermal layer around -15 deg C in mid November. I'll take it.

attachicon.gifsnow sounding.gif

Impressive. If we can put down an inch or two on Saturday night, 850s approaching -20 next Monday night/Tuesday could spell record cold. That could be the coldest 850 mb readings in November in this area since 1976, based off ILX/PIA. ECMWF performed best overall with the storm this week and it's been trending upward a bit with QPF on Saturday night.

Also, not a big deal but I think we'll have some flurries or snow showers in the air on Thursday as the upper trough moves overhead. Soundings, especially from the NAM, show steep lapse rates through the DGZ.

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Impressive. If we can put down an inch or two on Saturday night, 850s approaching -20 next Monday night/Tuesday could spell record cold. That could be the coldest 850 mb readings in November in this area since 1976, based off ILX/PIA. ECMWF performed best overall with the storm this week and it's been trending upward a bit with QPF on Saturday night.

Also, not a big deal but I think we'll have some flurries or snow showers in the air on Thursday as the upper trough moves overhead. Soundings, especially from the NAM, show steep lapse rates through the DGZ.

 

saw some pops added to Thursday for my p and c....you still out in naper?

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saw some pops added to Thursday for my p and c....you still out in naper?

Yup, I actually added those pops in this evening. I still live in Naperville. I was off the grid for 3 weeks from mid October until 1st weekend of November on my honeymoon in Australia. It was basically summer weather our whole time there, which is going to make this stretch of weather a bit tougher to take initially. Hopefully we get some snow Saturday night, because cold and dry sucks.

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Yup, I actually added those pops in this evening. I still live in Naperville. I was off the grid for 3 weeks from mid October until 1st weekend of November on my honeymoon in Australia. It was basically summer weather our whole time there, which is going to make this stretch of weather a bit tougher to take initially. Hopefully we get some snow Saturday night, because cold and dry sucks.

 

congrats....welcome back!

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If this is how the GFS is going to be from here on out, I am going to need to buckle in. That said, it did do a pretty good job with the current system compared to the outgoing GFS.

 

I see that it's snowing at DTW (from the LES off Lake Michigan).

 

Has there been anything measurable yet?

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That GFS parallel run is forecasting the #1 snowiest November on record for Chicago. 

 

Top 3:

 

14.8 (1940)

14.5 (1895)

14.3 (1951) 

 

& These are the only years at a foot or more. 

 

So...it's preeeetty difficult for that to verify, but not totally unprecedented. 

 

12z Euro shows the same Ohio Valley tracker, is further south with it. 3-6" totals from STL northeast. 

0z coming in now on WeatherBell. 

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I noticed that...mostly past day 10. But the closer we get to winter the averages plummet anyway. So closer to average isnt necessarily a bad thing. November is the largest temp differential from first to last day of the month. The average high on the 1st is 56F, on the 30th 41F

The models in the extended have begun to let up on the cold, which would make sense without a significant system to reinforce the cold air (as the pattern slowly breaks down).

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0z Euro is a little different for late Sunday and into Monday. Develops a gulf low that goes up to WV (1004mb) and then ALB (999mb). Still fairly minor...but some snow for parts of  S IL, IN, SE MI, and ON...but OH gets the "brunt". There's some ensemble support, but still a lot of spread.

 

In the extended, 0z Euro ensembles break down the cold pattern in the 11-15 day timeframe.

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0z Euro is a little different for late Sunday and into Monday. Develops a gulf low that goes up to WV (1004mb) and then ALB (999mb). Still fairly minor...but some snow for parts of  S IL, IN, SE MI, and ON...but OH gets the "brunt". There's some ensemble support, but still a lot of spread.

 

In the extended, 0z Euro ensembles break down the cold pattern in the 11-15 day timeframe.

 

Yea I saw that too.  JB mentions it as well and seems to think the idea has merit.   I have to admit, a relaxation in the pattern is a relief to me.  An early frozen ground sucks for my work.

post-622-0-46948000-1415798130_thumb.jpg

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That GFS parallel run is forecasting the #1 snowiest November on record for Chicago. 

 

Top 3:

 

14.8 (1940)

14.5 (1895)

14.3 (1951) 

 

& These are the only years at a foot or more. 

 

So...it's preeeetty difficult for that to verify, but not totally unprecedented. 

 

12z Euro shows the same Ohio Valley tracker, is further south with it. 3-6" totals from STL northeast. 

0z coming in now on WeatherBell. 

 

I agree on it being very difficult for it to verify...but seeing as how the next 5 to 10 days are featuring an anomalously cold pattern I keep it in the realm of possibilities more than most other Novembers.  That being said...specific locations as to whether its Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland, etc....is a crapshoot

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0z Euro is a little different for late Sunday and into Monday. Develops a gulf low that goes up to WV (1004mb) and then ALB (999mb). Still fairly minor...but some snow for parts of  S IL, IN, SE MI, and ON...but OH gets the "brunt". There's some ensemble support, but still a lot of spread.

 

 

 

Other guidance picking up on that too.  Something to watch.

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