Gilbertfly Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 This pattern upcoming is amazing to me and I just don't see any signs of an end to it once it starts tomorrow and Wednesday....at least for a few weeks right on through Thanksgiving and then who knows. The ridging along the west coast doesn't look to budge over the coming 10 days and that just buckles the jet continuously allowing for continued dumps of very cold air into the CONUS. The PV looks like it will be setting up over Hudson Bay with waves rotating around it and dislodging the cold air already in place up in Canada and then they come advecting south and now you're also building up a snow pack to our north. Just do a trace looking at 850mb temps of where the heck that air is originating from? Way way up there in northern Canada and points north. I think you could argue the cold shots will only get colder as time goes on and I'm just using the 18z GFS here. We had all the polar vortex hype with this first cold shot but the core of it was not even close to coming down. The PV showing up in the medium range guidance looks stronger and that one might come further south. Now you continue to get these waves crashing into the ridge along the west coast but it doesn't seem to budge over time. With the colder SST anomalies out over the northern Pacific, you already look to have a pretty active jet.....and as it looks now, the cold air is just going to keep coming down as it recharges in Canada. But the question is will it stay cold and dry or will it get active along with all this cold air? You'll need either the ridge to break down allowing for waves to crash into CA or that area every few days and have a more E-W orientated baroclinic zone....or you'll need waves to survive the trip around the ridge and back down into the pac NW/nrn plains and then be able to amplify over the central part of the country as they rotate around the base of the overall trof and hope the big PV doesn't suppress everything that tries to do so. Nice write up T-Snow... I remember last year the switch flipped the second week of December regarding cold air....from there, there was no looking back. It's hard to believe that that can happen a month early this year...but with what the models are showing it is starting to get that "no looking back" appearance already. If some additional, legit snowpack can be added regionally over the next few weeks it might just indeed be no looking back. via the 12Z GFS.... I "love" how that west coast ridge just keeps fighting back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 GGEM total snowfall through 150 hours. Won't have to worry about borderline temperatures/marginal boundary layers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 incredible H240 is even "worse" including the OV...but yes, even though it's fantasy land it's still incredible to even see it just modeled for the 3rd week of November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The Canadian was like 20˚ too cold last winter with min temps...in the bigger cold shots. But fun fantasy land temps nonetheless. Region temps at 216 and 240 hours. Indiana temps at 216 and 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 lol.... gem_T2m_eus_37 lol.png That is absolute insanity. Not that we should believe it will get that cold, but for the heck of it I looked up our record low for that day and it's 7 degrees. This is a reporting site that has been around for over 100 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The Canadian was like 20˚ too cold last winter with min temps...in the bigger cold shots. But fun fantasy land temps nonetheless. Region temps at 216 and 240 hours. 11:11 12z ggem 216.png 11:11 12z ggem 240.png Indiana temps at 216 and 240 hours. 11:11 12z ggem vodka.png 11:11 12z ggem 240 indiana.png I remember those runs where it had LAF down in the -30s. Might have even been -40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I remember those runs where it had LAF down in the -30s. Might have even been -40. lol yeah, it went all-time cold quite a few times last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Well damn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 GGEM total snowfall through 150 hours. Won't have to worry about borderline temperatures/marginal boundary layers! cmc_snow_acc_east_26.png Brings up an interesting point...normally you want decent rates at this time of year to get it to stick but with days of cold air prior to snow chances, maybe it won't need to snow as hard as usual to get it to stick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Well damn... Would be nice to get more southern stream involvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Would be nice to get more southern stream involvement. not gonna happen...it's last year all over again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 That is absolute insanity. Not that we should believe it will get that cold, but for the heck of it I looked up our record low for that day and it's 7 degrees. This is a reporting site that has been around for over 100 years. yeah....not expecting those temps to come to fruition...good to know the "20 degree to low nugget" for future reference though... If nothing else, all the models are not shying away from below normal temps through the extended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Would be nice to get more southern stream involvement. Certainly. Though as long as we continue to get these type of cold blasts, it will only be a matter of time before that happens with the El Nino... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 not gonna happen...it's last year all over again I'd think that should be something that would be improved from last winter with a burgeoning Nino. More robust southern stream would be nice to have this winter...of course in the end it comes down to phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Nice spread the wealth with a few systems on the 12z GFS over the next 10 days. Good lake snows in MI too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Brings up an interesting point...normally you want decent rates at this time of year to get it to stick but with days of cold air prior to snow chances, maybe it won't need to snow as hard as usual to get it to stick? probably not even a worry the way it's looking with 850's progged as cold as they are. Heck, even the warmest 925mb temp around here the next ten days is like -6 deg C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Nice spread the wealth with a few systems on the 12z GFS over the next 10 days. Good lake snows in MI too. gfs parallel snow.png Nice Dallas screwhole and fantastic lake snows off of Ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Well damn... A bit chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Sunday looking interesting for some snow possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 12z Euro continues with some light snow for many on Saturday/Sunday. "Best" snows, outside the LES belts, are from WI/IL on westward...kinda craps out as heads into Indiana. But, should see some flakes here regardless. Fantasy land storm is still there, but it's a little...eh, discombobulated at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 A few impressive GEFS members in the mix for the weekend system. Not what you would call convincing evidence though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 last nights GEM has an overrunning event followed by a clipper for late weekend into next week... and does this with 2M temps 7 days from now.... gem_T2m_eus_31.png Too cold, too early! Doubt it verifies though. Maybe around 10* would work out for some areas. Brings up an interesting point...normally you want decent rates at this time of year to get it to stick but with days of cold air prior to snow chances, maybe it won't need to snow as hard as usual to get it to stick? With it being cold all this week, I would think it would not take a very fast snowfall rate to have it stick. Paved surfaces of course would take the longest for the snow to stick. But the snow on Halloween that fell here stuck to everything except the pavement, so as long as air temperatures are below freezing, even a light snowfall should stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Poking around at some forecast soundings for the weekend snow, the DGZ looks fairly deep in some areas. Too early to get into specifics but some areas would stand a chance to put up higher than average ratios if things hold. Normally you wouldn't consider it with potentially only light snowfall rates in an early season setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 18z GFS total snowfall through Monday. Not huge amounts, but something to whiten the grass up during this Arctic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Poking around at some forecast soundings for the weekend snow, the DGZ looks fairly deep in some areas. Too early to get into specifics but some areas would stand a chance to put up higher than average ratios if things hold. Normally you wouldn't consider it with potentially only light snowfall rates in an early season setup. I was thinking along those lines, but neglected to look into it at all (and in all honesty I don't have the deepest understanding of the soundings to make any substantive remarks)....but off the cuff I was thinking (and kind of lol'ing to myself after looking at the calendar) that a fluffier snow may not be out of the question in some areas with this potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Congrats LAF on the 18z Parallel GFS from 216hrs and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Geos ice age post from the other thread may be a legitimate consideration if you took the GEM verbatim lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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