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Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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My ground temps are already primed for snow.  It snowed here on Saturday and it didn't have a problem sticking plus it didn't fully melt until air temps were into mid-30s.  My big interest now is to see when my lake freezes over.  This pattern we may be able to get out on the ice by Thanksgiving.

 

very nice....a little work to do here still...

 

post-5865-0-61357700-1415637199_thumb.jp

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I don't know much about soil temps and all that but I've wondered why the 4" temp gets mentioned as much as it does.  Wouldn't actual surface temps (I'm not talking 2m) be more important in determining how efficient snow will stick? 

 

Yeah, surface temps play a larger role...but can fluctuate quite a bit in the transitional seasons....I use the 4 inch to get a better gauge on the overall trend....

 

despite it's boring weenieness :P

 

In all honesty, having a landscape company....it's something I keep an eye on anyways for work related reasons.  Soil temps may have an impact on only one or two events at the most typically...but again, for me, it's more of an overall gauge than a nit picky "what's the exact temp and will snow officially stick or melt if it snows right now"

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fairly safe to say that ground temps are gonna take a pretty solid hit over the next week or so...

 

attachicon.gif5dayfcst500_wbg.gif

 

Doesn't make any system that follows a "lock" for accums to stick everywhere...but this certainly will help

 

I learned last year not to underestimate the stubbornness of ground temps to finally surrender to the cold.  The first week of December, last year, (I believe it was around the 7th-9th), we were tracking a significant winter storm for our area here in Ohio.  Many models were showing well over 6"+.    It snowed all day, we received 5" and the most notable part of that storm was there was no need for plowing, shoveling, or salting...NOTHING stuck to pavement.   This in spite of having a grass covered snow through most of the second half of November.

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I learned last year not to underestimate the stubbornness of ground temps to finally surrender to the cold. The first week of December, last year, (I believe it was around the 7th-9th), we were tracking a significant winter storm for our area here in Ohio. Many models were showing well over 6"+. It snowed all day, we received 5" and the most notable part of that storm was there was no need for plowing, shoveling, or salting...NOTHING stuck to pavement. This in spite of having a grass covered snow through most of the second half of November.

I think warm ground definitely plays a bigger roll for roads than grass...especially if surface temps are near or above freezing and snow rates aren't that heavy. If I remember that storm right, the rates were generally light to moderate, and surface temps were only a few degrees below freezing, and most of the snow fell during the day in central Ohio...but correct me if I'm wrong.
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I think warm ground definitely plays a bigger roll for roads than grass...especially if surface temps are near or above freezing and snow rates aren't that heavy. If I remember that storm right, the rates were generally light to moderate, and surface temps were only a few degrees below freezing, and most of the snow fell during the day in central Ohio...but correct me if I'm wrong.

 

You are correct.  It really felt like a mid March snowstorm.   Just seemed odd because I have seen lesser snows accumulate that time of year...with much more efficiency. 

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Its good that all the longterm models have a somewhat unsettled look rather than bone dry (even bone dry would probably produce lake snows). No way to even have a clue who will be the winners and the losers, because there WILL be some of both, but with the cold a lock, the pattern has potential.

 

As things stand right now, we both finally have a good shot of seeing "measurable" snow on Thursday, even if it's just LES...

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This pattern upcoming is amazing to me and I just don't see any signs of an end to it once it starts tomorrow and Wednesday....at least for a few weeks right on through Thanksgiving and then who knows. The ridging along the west coast doesn't look to budge over the coming 10 days and that just buckles the jet continuously allowing for continued dumps of very cold air into the CONUS. The PV looks like it will be setting up over Hudson Bay with waves rotating around it and dislodging the cold air already in place up in Canada and then they come advecting south and now you're also building up a snow pack to our north. Just do a trace looking at 850mb temps of where the heck that air is originating from? Way way up there in northern Canada and points north. I think you could argue the cold shots will only get colder as time goes on and I'm just using the 18z GFS here. We had all the polar vortex hype with this first cold shot but the core of it was not even close to coming down. The PV showing up in the medium range guidance looks stronger and that one might come further south. Now you continue to get these waves crashing into the ridge along the west coast but it doesn't seem to budge over time. With the colder SST anomalies out over the northern Pacific, you already look to have a pretty active jet.....and as it looks now, the cold air is just going to keep coming down as it recharges in Canada. But the question is will it stay cold and dry or will it get active along with all this cold air? You'll need either the ridge to break down allowing for waves to crash into CA or that area every few days and have a more E-W orientated baroclinic zone....or you'll need waves to survive the trip around the ridge and back down into the pac NW/nrn plains and then be able to amplify over the central part of the country as they rotate around the base of the overall trof and hope the big PV doesn't suppress everything that tries to do so.

 

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Soil and ground temperatures are at times tricky to manage wrt freeze up times. I have witnessed many tons of salt applied for absolutely no benefit, simply some one calling the shots with little experience in this department.

 

Time to prep the salters and fluff the pile of salt from last season. ;) The tarp split mid way through the summer and left the salt exposed to the elements of summer and fall. Crust was only a few inches thick on the top. EZ work for the loader to grind and restack for application.

 

Great prospects this November... Hope the trend continues.

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0z Euro kept the fantasy land winter storm (19-21st timeframe)...like what the prior 12z run showed. Weenie goggles on maybe, but the track of the 0z run looks sorta February 2007-ish. Not the same results of course... 

 

 

That is a 5 Weenie post!   :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:

 

(It would be awesome though!)

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From the MSP AFD:

 

"AS OF NOW HAVE SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONSIDERING THAT MONDAYS
HIGH AT MSP WAS 31...AND THE FORECAST GOES THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...THAT WOULD MAKE 8 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WHERE THE HIGH TEMP AT
MSP WAS SUBFREEZING IN NOVEMBER...WHICH WOULD TIE THE LONGEST STREAK
ON RECORD FROM NOV23-NOV30 1985."

 

Good indication of how cold it will be.

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