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Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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it's strange, the track looks like it wouldn't produce much snow south and east of Chicago yet the wxbell snowfall maps show the jackpot for a large part of IN into the northern half of ohio

Yeah, those snowfall maps you know. But does look a legit shot at something frozen or freezing here with the first initial slug of precip, verbatim...when looking at the surface temps and upper levels.

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To be clear, the Euro Seasonal was a gigantic bust last year. And I thought we were clear that AO state doesn't have a perfect winter CONUS temperature correlation (see last winter).

He says that this year's current run resembles 1951-52. That was a pretty snowy season, especially for those in the northern half of the sub-forum. For the Midwest: December was cold, January was cold NW/W half, warm SE/E half, February was region wide warm, and March was cold...and for 95% of the CONUS to boot.

Problem for JB of course if that verifies, would be that the center of the universe...the Northeast/East US...would facing a somewhat warm winter...contrary to his current forecast. The horror.

DJF and DJFM temp anomalies, in today's "terms".

DJF 1951-52 temps.png

DJFM 1951-52 temps.png

Detroit saw 24.0" in December and was at 32.3" on the season by new years. Season total was 58.6", BY FAR the best winter of that era. Snowiest at that time since 1929-30 and wouldn't see a snowoer winter until 1974-75.
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DVN brings up next weekends potential...

 

 

NEXT WEEKEND...THE ECMWF INDICATES A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
LARGE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IF THIS
IS CORRECT THEN WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWS WOULD BE LIKELY.
HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS OUR TEMPERATURES MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS THE
SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH. STAY TUNED.

HAASE

 

Sounds like either way you slice it....it will be a wintery feeling week or so after the veterans day system

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PDO is irrelevant. ENSO matches more than you think in terms of progression, but I never said it was a great match. The key is it had a large blocking signal in November similiar to this year with the strong pacific low.

The PDO matters and the ENSO is not a good match, 32-33 is not a good analog for this winter.

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Disregard below. It is the op Euro. Control looks the same...so good news, maybe?

Nah. It's not the OP, but the control run.

Yeah I have been watching the control as well, really showing a huge system at 500mb with the 10 day system. Something certainly to monitor. The ensembles certainly show some agreement with the op with the 10 day system too.
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Interestingly JB just posted a blog in which he said the new European seasonal forecast for the winter is now showing a predominantly POSITIVE AO.   Although it still shows plenty of ridging in nw Canada.    A warmer look than his forecast and plenty of other forecasts.   Also said it's a very wet look too. 

Isn't discounting it, just says there are still lots of questions ahead.  

 

Wouldn't that be a kick in the pants if winter came very early only to disappear.   Wouldn't be enough egg for all the faces in the forecast industry.  

 

edit:  does make mention that the euro seasonal this time of year, last year, was even warmer looking for '13-14'.   So that's some relief for the snowhounds.

 

I can confirm it..

 

 

To be clear, the Euro Seasonal was a gigantic bust last year. And I thought we were clear that AO state doesn't have a perfect winter CONUS temperature correlation (see last winter).

 

He says that this year's current run resembles 1951-52. That was a pretty snowy season, especially for those in the northern half of the sub-forum. For the Midwest: December was cold, January was cold NW/W half, warm SE/E half, February was region wide warm, and March was cold...and for 95% of the CONUS to boot.

 

Problem for JB of course if that verifies, would be that the center of the universe...the Northeast/East US...would facing a somewhat warm winter...contrary to his current forecast. The horror.

 

DJF and DJFM temp anomalies, in today's "terms".

 

attachicon.gifDJF 1951-52 temps.png

 

attachicon.gifDJFM 1951-52 temps.png

 

That ( 51-52 ) had a awesome December capped off with a snowstorm ( 8.5" ) on Christmas eve/day which left 22" on the ground Christmas morning.. Ended with about 80" on the season and the ONLY winter that whole decade to finish with above normal snow and the only above 50" for the decade as far as that goes.. 59-60 would be the next time the 50+ mark would be broken..  :yikes:

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I can confirm it..

That ( 51-52 ) had a awesome December capped off with a snowstorm ( 8.5" ) on Christmas eve/day which left 22" on the ground Christmas morning.. Ended with about 80" on the season and the ONLY winter that whole decade to finish with above normal snow and the only above 50" for the decade as far as that goes.. 59-60 would be the next time the 50+ mark would be broken.. :yikes:

as I said, here at Detroit the 58.6" was the snowiest winter since 1929-30 & wouldn't see a snowier one until 1974-75. The peak snow depth of 16" makes it the only winter from 1930-31 until 1974-75 to have snow depth OVER a foot (10-11" were seen several times in that timeframe). Just NOT a good time period for snowlovers here.
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fairly safe to say that ground temps are gonna take a pretty solid hit over the next week or so...

 

 

 

Doesn't make any system that follows a "lock" for accums to stick everywhere...but this certainly will help

My ground temps are already primed for snow.  It snowed here on Saturday and it didn't have a problem sticking plus it didn't fully melt until air temps were into mid-30s.  My big interest now is to see when my lake freezes over.  This pattern we may be able to get out on the ice by Thanksgiving.

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