Chicago WX Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 it's strange, the track looks like it wouldn't produce much snow south and east of Chicago yet the wxbell snowfall maps show the jackpot for a large part of IN into the northern half of ohio Yeah, those snowfall maps you know. But does look a legit shot at something frozen or freezing here with the first initial slug of precip, verbatim...when looking at the surface temps and upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Height anomalies are off the charts in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Yeah, those snowfall maps you know. But does look a legit shot at something frozen or freezing here with the first initial slug of precip, verbatim...when looking at the surface temps and upper levels. yea, according to wxbell I should be at about 18" for the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 And then, at the end of today's 12z run...10 spot for the LAF. Weeeee... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 volcanic ash talking point come from?From the mind of business strategist Jeff Saut, apparentlyhttp://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44158-winter-2014-15-discussion/page-4#entry3063793 Meanwhile, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 The system for next weekend looks like it could produce some nice widespread snows over a large area. Slow moving system as well. Euro has been consistent with it so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 1932-33 is popping up a bit. Good cold snap in November. Major snowstorm around mid-month. Though January was historically bad. Probably don't want to go there...............where in the world are you seeing 1932-33 pop up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 To be clear, the Euro Seasonal was a gigantic bust last year. And I thought we were clear that AO state doesn't have a perfect winter CONUS temperature correlation (see last winter). He says that this year's current run resembles 1951-52. That was a pretty snowy season, especially for those in the northern half of the sub-forum. For the Midwest: December was cold, January was cold NW/W half, warm SE/E half, February was region wide warm, and March was cold...and for 95% of the CONUS to boot. Problem for JB of course if that verifies, would be that the center of the universe...the Northeast/East US...would facing a somewhat warm winter...contrary to his current forecast. The horror. DJF and DJFM temp anomalies, in today's "terms". DJF 1951-52 temps.png DJFM 1951-52 temps.png Detroit saw 24.0" in December and was at 32.3" on the season by new years. Season total was 58.6", BY FAR the best winter of that era. Snowiest at that time since 1929-30 and wouldn't see a snowoer winter until 1974-75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 where in the world are you seeing 1932-33 pop up? PDO is not a match and neither is ENSO, for starters. Typical Angrysummons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 DVN brings up next weekends potential... NEXT WEEKEND...THE ECMWF INDICATES A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANDLARGE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IF THISIS CORRECT THEN WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWS WOULD BE LIKELY.HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS OUR TEMPERATURES MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS THESYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH. STAY TUNED.HAASE Sounds like either way you slice it....it will be a wintery feeling week or so after the veterans day system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 PDO is irrelevant. ENSO matches more than you think in terms of progression, but I never said it was a great match. The key is it had a large blocking signal in November similiar to this year with the strong pacific low. The PDO matters and the ENSO is not a good match, 32-33 is not a good analog for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Lock it in. We salute you with a... Should have posted the full run though. I think IND breaks their Nov snowfall record by the 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 We salute you with a... Should have posted the full run though. I think IND breaks their Nov snowfall record by the 23rd. What model is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Stebo - that's the 12z OP EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Stebo - that's the 12z op EURO. Ahh I am all in then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Ahh I am all in then Disregard below. It is the op Euro. Control looks the same...so good news, maybe? Nah. It's not the OP, but the control run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Disregard below. It is the op Euro. Control looks the same...so good news, maybe? Nah. It's not the OP, but the control run. Yeah I have been watching the control as well, really showing a huge system at 500mb with the 10 day system. Something certainly to monitor. The ensembles certainly show some agreement with the op with the 10 day system too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Winter Outlook 2014-15 for Southeast Lower Michigan - Another Cold Winter? http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2014/11/winter-outlook-2014-15-for-southeast.html another detailed writeup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 0z GFS is just wall to wall cold through the whole run for the Midwest. Lot of 20s for highs in the region coming up, lows in the teens and even single digits before Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Interestingly JB just posted a blog in which he said the new European seasonal forecast for the winter is now showing a predominantly POSITIVE AO. Although it still shows plenty of ridging in nw Canada. A warmer look than his forecast and plenty of other forecasts. Also said it's a very wet look too. Isn't discounting it, just says there are still lots of questions ahead. Wouldn't that be a kick in the pants if winter came very early only to disappear. Wouldn't be enough egg for all the faces in the forecast industry. edit: does make mention that the euro seasonal this time of year, last year, was even warmer looking for '13-14'. So that's some relief for the snowhounds. I can confirm it.. To be clear, the Euro Seasonal was a gigantic bust last year. And I thought we were clear that AO state doesn't have a perfect winter CONUS temperature correlation (see last winter). He says that this year's current run resembles 1951-52. That was a pretty snowy season, especially for those in the northern half of the sub-forum. For the Midwest: December was cold, January was cold NW/W half, warm SE/E half, February was region wide warm, and March was cold...and for 95% of the CONUS to boot. Problem for JB of course if that verifies, would be that the center of the universe...the Northeast/East US...would facing a somewhat warm winter...contrary to his current forecast. The horror. DJF and DJFM temp anomalies, in today's "terms". DJF 1951-52 temps.png DJFM 1951-52 temps.png That ( 51-52 ) had a awesome December capped off with a snowstorm ( 8.5" ) on Christmas eve/day which left 22" on the ground Christmas morning.. Ended with about 80" on the season and the ONLY winter that whole decade to finish with above normal snow and the only above 50" for the decade as far as that goes.. 59-60 would be the next time the 50+ mark would be broken.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 A synoptic snow threat on the gfs, parallel gfs, & gem next weekend. Nothing big, but would lay down a blanket of snow. January-esque looking maps throughout the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I can confirm it.. That ( 51-52 ) had a awesome December capped off with a snowstorm ( 8.5" ) on Christmas eve/day which left 22" on the ground Christmas morning.. Ended with about 80" on the season and the ONLY winter that whole decade to finish with above normal snow and the only above 50" for the decade as far as that goes.. 59-60 would be the next time the 50+ mark would be broken.. as I said, here at Detroit the 58.6" was the snowiest winter since 1929-30 & wouldn't see a snowier one until 1974-75. The peak snow depth of 16" makes it the only winter from 1930-31 until 1974-75 to have snow depth OVER a foot (10-11" were seen several times in that timeframe). Just NOT a good time period for snowlovers here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Noticing a lot of November 2002 showing up in the CPC analogs over the past several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 ...... buckeye may be doing extra model shifts early this year. someday I will read an angrysummons post from first word to last and it will make complete sense.... ....and I will wonder, hath hell frozen over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Looking forward to Angrysummons V. Buckeye Winter 14/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 fairly safe to say that ground temps are gonna take a pretty solid hit over the next week or so... Doesn't make any system that follows a "lock" for accums to stick everywhere...but this certainly will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 someday I will read an angrysummons post from first word to last and it will make complete sense.... ....and I will wonder, hath hell frozen over? Nothing frozen from Angrysummons . Analogs 1881-82 & 1931-32 for hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 fairly safe to say that ground temps are gonna take a pretty solid hit over the next week or so... Doesn't make any system that follows a "lock" for accums to stick everywhere...but this certainly will help My ground temps are already primed for snow. It snowed here on Saturday and it didn't have a problem sticking plus it didn't fully melt until air temps were into mid-30s. My big interest now is to see when my lake freezes over. This pattern we may be able to get out on the ice by Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 12Z GFS looks like at least a shot or 2 of some snow for most in the sub forum over the next 7 to 8 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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