Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion

[daddylonglegs]

Brutal

 

[buckeye]

Brutal

 

 

 

wow, that is.  I don't recall seeing anything like that before.   

 

For the analog geeks: are there any similarities between 1989 and now?   In other words, could we start out with a brutal nov into Dec and then the 'rubber band breaks', winter blows it's load, and Jan into spring moderates?

[IWXwx]

wow, that is.  I don't recall seeing anything like that before.   

 

For the analog geeks: are there any similarities between 1989 and now?   In other words, could we start out with a brutal nov into Dec and then the 'rubber band breaks', winter blows it's load, and Jan into spring moderates?

 

Not an analog geek, but I could live with a front-loaded winter.

[A-L-E-K]

just looped the 0z models....ugh

 

top 10(5?) coldest November in the making?

[A-L-E-K]

Not an analog geek, but I could live with a front-loaded winter.

 

 

 

wow, that is.  I don't recall seeing anything like that before.   

 

For the analog geeks: are there any similarities between 1989 and now?   In other words, could we start out with a brutal nov into Dec and then the 'rubber band breaks', winter blows it's load, and Jan into spring moderates?

 

 

we've been dealing with that pac ridge for a year plus now, it isn't going anywhere

[DAFF]

Perhaps the volcanic ash in the atmosphere does have a hold on the cold weather ??? One thing is for sure this roller coaster ride is no way near its end.

[A-L-E-K]

where did this full-retard volcanic ash talking point come from?

[Chicago WX]

top 10(5?) coldest November in the making?

 

 

Probably not. But here's the top 10 coldest Novembers for Chicago...

 

31.6˚ in 1880

31.6˚ in 1872

32.8˚ in 1995

32.8˚ in 1976

32.9˚ in 1951

33.4˚ in 1996

33.4˚ in 1959

33.8˚ in 1891

34.2˚ in 1873

34.3˚ in 1950

 

FYI, last November was 37.5˚ (tied for 32nd coldest)

[michsnowfreak]

wow, that is.  I don't recall seeing anything like that before.   

 

For the analog geeks: are there any similarities between 1989 and now?   In other words, could we start out with a brutal nov into Dec and then the 'rubber band breaks', winter blows it's load, and Jan into spring moderates?

havent seen anything resembling 1989-90 in any of the analogs

[Hoosier]

Long range certainly looks below average on balance.  And looking at various long range products, there should be some opportunities for storms.

 

Normally I think of November as a throwaway month around here.  Decent snowstorms happen in November but not very often.  I'm not sure what LAF's average November snow is but IND is only 0.7" so we're probably somewhere around there.  I would've been fine with a milder pattern but my philosophy is that if it's going to be cold, it might as well snow.  It'll feel like a waste if all we manage out of this pattern is a couple dusting-1" type systems (or worse).  

[Harry]

Alek's trying reverse psychology. But yeah, going to be pretty tough to match 2013-14's DJFM temps in the Lakes/Midwest.

 

DJFM 2013-14 temp ranks.png

 

 

we're still riding the same train

 

Yep..

 

A repeat of last winter would not shock me in the least bit.. Reason being is that pac ridge you mentioned and thus see that megaton bomb in the N.PAC that is the remains of a super typhoon. THAT is what really help to set up and drive the weather pattern last winter giving us that -EPO aka Pac ridge.. This is also what could cause that snow index ( forget what it is called..tip of tongue ) to fail again as that -EPO was responsible for it's failure last winter. You get that same -EPO ridge the AO should come out nearly the same as well which would go against what is being forecast this winter..

[Thundersnow12]

My gosh. Even colder arctic air comes down day 8-10 on the 0z GFS.

[michsnowfreak]

And the Winter Solstice is still 44 days away

[michsnowfreak]

Yep..

A repeat of last winter would not shock me in the least bit.. Reason being is that pac ridge you mentioned and thus see that megaton bomb in the N.PAC that is the remains of a super typhoon. THAT is what really help to set up and drive the weather pattern last winter giving us that -EPO aka Pac ridge.. This is also what could cause that snow index ( forget what it is called..tip of tongue ) to fail again as that -EPO was responsible for it's failure last winter. You get that same -EPO ridge the AO should come out nearly the same as well which would go against what is being forecast this winter..

wake me up, im dreaming .

[Stebo]

The 10 day snow map from the Euro reminds me of something you'd see in the dead of winter.

[IWXwx]

Long range certainly looks below average on balance.  And looking at various long range products, there should be some opportunities for storms.

 

Normally I think of November as a throwaway month around here.  Decent snowstorms happen in November but not very often.  I'm not sure what LAF's average November snow is but IND is only 0.7" so we're probably somewhere around there.  I would've been fine with a milder pattern but my philosophy is that if it's going to be cold, it might as well snow.  It'll feel like a waste if all we manage out of this pattern is a couple dusting-1" type systems (or worse).  

 

That's been my philosophy for the past 45 years Ryan.

 

Climo says that we will see less than 3" total for November, but climo also says that we won't see the cold that the models are predicting. It will be fun and interesting to watch this play out.

[BuffaloWeather]

The 10 day snow map from the Euro reminds me of something you'd see in the dead of winter.

 

Do you think this pattern is going to be long lasting or just a 1 month type of thing? This seems identical to what happened last year correct?

[heavy_wx]

Yep..

 

A repeat of last winter would not shock me in the least bit.. Reason being is that pac ridge you mentioned and thus see that megaton bomb in the N.PAC that is the remains of a super typhoon. THAT is what really help to set up and drive the weather pattern last winter giving us that -EPO aka Pac ridge.. This is also what could cause that snow index ( forget what it is called..tip of tongue ) to fail again as that -EPO was responsible for it's failure last winter. You get that same -EPO ridge the AO should come out nearly the same as well which would go against what is being forecast this winter..

 

Last winter, the SAI suggested the DJFM AO value was going to be fairly positive and it ended being near neutral. Part of that may have been because of the overlap in the EPO and AO domains in the NW Pacific (though this statistical effect is still pretty minor given that the loading patterns are closer to orthogonal than in-phase). Last month's SAI however, suggests a fairly negative AO will be present this winter and it's not obvious to me that a negative EPO (if it indeed persists this winter) would make the AO turn out closer to neutral as it did last winter.

 

That's not to say the a strong and persistent Pacific ridge will not have some dynamic impact on the AO. The Pacific ridge may modulate the storm track of disturbances in eastern Asia and thus the position of the greatest upward and poleward fluxes of heat and momentum. That may affect how the stratospheric PV is perturbed and perhaps the downwelling AO response.

[buckeye]

The 10 day snow map from the Euro reminds me of something you'd see in the dead of winter.

 

It is.  In fact most of the sub forum is depicted under a blanket of snow.

[wxhstn74]

Winter Outlook 2014-15 for Southeast Lower Michigan - Another Cold Winter?

 

http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2014/11/winter-outlook-2014-15-for-southeast.html

[Hoosier]

Nice write-up Mr. Deedler.  Thanks for posting.

[buckeye]

Interestingly JB just posted a blog in which he said the new European seasonal forecast for the winter is now showing a predominantly POSITIVE AO.   Although it still shows plenty of ridging in nw Canada.    A warmer look than his forecast and plenty of other forecasts.   Also said it's a very wet look too. 

Isn't discounting it, just says there are still lots of questions ahead.  

 

Wouldn't that be a kick in the pants if winter came very early only to disappear.   Wouldn't be enough egg for all the faces in the forecast industry.  

 

edit:  does make mention that the euro seasonal this time of year, last year, was even warmer looking for '13-14'.   So that's some relief for the snowhounds.

[Chicago WX]

To be clear, the Euro Seasonal was a gigantic bust last year. And I thought we were clear that AO state doesn't have a perfect winter CONUS temperature correlation (see last winter).

 

He says that this year's current run resembles 1951-52. That was a pretty snowy season, especially for those in the northern half of the sub-forum. For the Midwest: December was cold, January was cold NW/W half, warm SE/E half, February was region wide warm, and March was cold...and for 95% of the CONUS to boot.

 

Problem for JB of course if that verifies, would be that the center of the universe...the Northeast/East US...would facing a somewhat warm winter...contrary to his current forecast. The horror.

 

DJF and DJFM temp anomalies, in today's "terms".

 

 

[Hoosier]

To be clear, the Euro Seasonal was a gigantic bust last year. And I thought we were clear that AO state doesn't have a perfect winter CONUS temperature correlation (see last winter).

 

He says that this year's current run resembles 1951-52. That was a pretty snowy season, especially for those in the northern half of the sub-forum. For the Midwest: December was cold, January was cold NW/W half, warm SE/E half, February was region wide warm, and March was cold...and for 95% of the CONUS to boot.

 

Problem for JB of course if that verifies, would be that the center of the universe...the Northeast/East US...would facing a somewhat warm winter...contrary to his current forecast. The horror.

 

DJF and DJFM temp anomalies, in today's "terms".

 

DJF 1951-52 temps.png

 

DJFM 1951-52 temps.png

 

 

I'd roll the dice with that one.  It was a 30" winter at LAF...sort of ho-hum but still a bit snowier than our average.  Snowy November too.

[Chicago WX]

I'd roll the dice with that one.  It was a 30" winter at LAF...sort of ho-hum but still a bit snowier than our average.  Snowy November too.

 

Yeah, me too.

[snowlover2]

Can't tell the exact tack on the 12z Euro, but by hour 216 there is a sub 990mb just east of Marquette MI. Looks like at hour 192 it was around 1008 in W KY. Wondering if it went up through E OH/W PA and retrograded toward Marquette?

[Hoosier]

Can't tell the exact tack on the 12z Euro, but by hour 216 there is a sub 990mb just east of Marquette MI. Looks like at hour 192 it was around 1008 in W KY. Wondering if it went up through E OH/W PA and retrograded toward Marquette?

 

 

Yeah I'd like to know what happened in between.  That looks interesting and followed by another cold blast.

[Chicago WX]

Looks like there's two lows actually. At 186 we have one in NW AL and one back in TX. 192 we have one over EVV (1007) and then a trailer in NW LA. And then at 198 hours...a 1003 low just east of Chicago, over the Lake. And then  basically due north from there, beyond that timeframe. Bizarro.

 

EDIT: some front end love for LAF...but again, bizarre solution. And fantasy land.

[buckeye]

Can't tell the exact tack on the 12z Euro, but by hour 216 there is a sub 990mb just east of Marquette MI. Looks like at hour 192 it was around 1008 in W KY. Wondering if it went up through E OH/W PA and retrograded toward Marquette?

 

definitely a signal has been there for 'something' around late next weekend from a lot of the models. 

[buckeye]

Looks like there's two lows actually. At 186 we have one in NW AL and one back in TX. 192 we have one over EVV (1007) and then a trailer in NW LA. And then at 198 hours...a 1003 low just east of Chicago, over the Lake. And then  basically due north from there, beyond that timeframe. Bizarro.

 

EDIT: some front end love for LAF...but again, bizarre solution. And fantasy land.

 

it's strange, the track looks like it wouldn't produce much snow south and east of Chicago yet the wxbell snowfall maps show the jackpot for a large part of IN into the northern half of ohio