Hoosier Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 the end of GRRs morning forecast discussion... BEYOND THAT... THAT UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO SET IN SO A SLOW WARM UP FOLLOWS. WEEK TWO FORECAST...(FRIDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING THURSDAY) HERE IS WERE WE MAY SEE A MAJOR TURN AROUND IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN AND BRING WINTER BACK INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. AS IT TURNS OUT THE MJO IS IN QUAD 5 DOING VERY NICELY. THIS SUGGEST WARM WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS LONG RANGE FORECAST BRING THE MJO TO QUAD 7-8 AROUND THE END OF WEEK TWO. THIS BRINGS COLD WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF 51 REMEMBER ENSEMBLES FROM THE 4TH DO INDEED SHOW THIS HAPPENING AS DEEP TROUGH RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO EXPECT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TILL AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK... THEN WINTER COMES BACK I cannot EVER recall an AFD discussing something well beyond their 7-day forecast window. About the most I can recall is a little hint like "a big regime/pattern change appears possible just outside the forecast period" or something like that. Some offices do it more than others. Dodge City was good for that in the past...not sure if that's still the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It's the OP GFS, so take it fwiw, but that was the first run in a long time where beyond 300 hrs didn't look like absolute doggie do-do. I have been hedging my bets against the medium/long range for all the models for the last 3 weeks....so definetly in the fwiw department for me. Regardless, it looks like the 12Z GFS relaxed the east Asian jet just prior to mid month before it reloads it....this made for some nice buckling downstream with the existing pac jet and into the CONUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Interesting...I will have to look at GRRs discos more often! "LONG TERM...WDM" When WDM is doing the long term in GRR it is always a good read. I think they let him do extra because he is at his best when long term forecasts. I believe Harry got him to post before (here or on his site) a few years ago. BTW ... Last year the Quad City guy did an AFD with a >7 long term discussion with the super torch forecast as we head in to March ... yeah that on didn't go so well for him. That said I don't think WDM forecast is going to bust like the Quad City AFD so I don't expect him to need this " " at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The trend has got to break at some point but who knows....we should be guarnteed a few mild days but as for prolonged Im not so sure anymore. Its constantly being pushed back. Oh, and I see no posts here discussing the 12z GFS like there have been every other day this week. Wonder why? The pattern has been the same for about 18 months as I recall. Warmth gently builds and gets extinguished by a front where it is very cold on the back side. Every warm spell this summer ended in the same manor, winter of last season and the latest cold spell on November was no exception. Winter like weather might get muted as the MJO runs its course but will be back sooner than later. Trying to get the trucks up to snuff for when true winter comes in with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Much different and colder look to 12z op GFS compared to the op 18z GFS yesterday. 12z run today keeps 850's below zero here from about day 10/11 to end of run with a more dominant high pressure where the 18z run yesterday was much warmer and didn't sniff any 850's below zero in that same timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Much different and colder look to 12z op GFS compared to the op 18z GFS yesterday. Ehh look at Canada. That's definitely not much of a cold air mass. 850s are barely below freezing all the way up through Alberta and into the NW Territories. Winter looks to be on the other side of the world for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Ehh look at Canada. That's definitely not much of a cold air mass. 850s are barely below freezing all the way up through Alberta and into the NW Territories. Winter looks to be on the other side of the world for the foreseeable future. True, it's not cold... It's just a better flow. Hopefully cold air can fill in with that flow in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I think most would just want it to be cold enough to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I noticed from his Facebook post today that Tom Skilling has jumped all over the big warm-up over the next couple of weeks, if it indeed materializes. I have a lot of respect for Tom Skilling but I often think he and Brett Anderson of accuweather are the heat misers to Joe Bastardi's cold miser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I think most would just want it to be cold enough to snow. I wouldn't mind at least one zero day for the season just to freeze up the ponds and kill off the ticks and other pests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I thought only AccuWeather did 20 day forecasts, but I guess the Grand Rapids office does too. NWS AFDs are not really supposed to talk about seasonal forecasts. That's what CPC is for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 I noticed from his Facebook post today that Tom Skilling has jumped all over the big warm-up over the next couple of weeks, if it indeed materializes. I have a lot of respect for Tom Skilling but I often think he and Brett Anderson of accuweather are the heat misers to Joe Bastardi's cold miser.lol again.Skilling is not a warm weather person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I thought only AccuWeather did 20 day forecasts, but I guess the Grand Rapids office does too. NWS AFDs are not really supposed to talk about seasonal forecasts. That's what CPC is for. Didnt think there was anything wrong with what GRR did. The CPC just defaults to warm for their seasonal forecast anyway...its pure garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 lol again. Skilling is not a warm weather person. I'll rephrase. JB is not a believer in AGW, while Skilling (I've been told) is, as is Brett Anderson. While JB looks for any way to forecast cold, the other two jump on the warm bandwagon, particularly Brett Anderson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Through mid-month really doesn't look all that warm to me. Not super cold, but normal to even a bit below in the subforum. Not impressed with the warmth. If it ever really does come, the MJO looks to take care of it quickly in a few weeks anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Through mid-month really doesn't look all that warm to me. Not super cold, but normal to even a bit below in the subforum. Not impressed with the warmth. If it ever really does come, the MJO looks to take care of it quickly in a few weeks anyway. I've noticed that the GFS is really starting to back off from the exceptional warmth it was showing a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I'll rephrase. JB is not a believer in AGW, while Skilling (I've been told) is, as is Brett Anderson. While JB looks for any way to forecast cold, the other two jump on the warm bandwagon, particularly Brett Anderson. I've never really noticed a big bias with Skilling. He seems pretty neutral overall. If anything, he seems to get "excited" for big snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 6, 2014 Author Share Posted December 6, 2014 I've never really noticed a big bias with Skilling. He seems pretty neutral overall. If anything, he seems to get "excited" for big snowstorms.You have to realize who you're responding to here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I'll rephrase. JB is not a believer in AGW, while Skilling (I've been told) is, as is Brett Anderson. While JB looks for any way to forecast cold, the other two jump on the warm bandwagon, particularly Brett Anderson. Whoever told you this is, wrong and enough with the JB love. No one around here cares what a broken clock has to say. If you absolutely need to discuss what the broken clock has to say, keep it in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Whoever told you this is, wrong and enough with the JB love. No one around here cares what a broken clock has to say. If you absolutely need to discuss what the broken clock has to say, keep it in the banter thread. Okay, my mistake then. I apologize. Let's just move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 "LONG TERM...WDM" When WDM is doing the long term in GRR it is always a good read. I think they let him do extra because he is at his best when long term forecasts. I believe Harry got him to post before (here or on his site) a few years ago. BTW ... Last year the Quad City guy did an AFD with a >7 long term discussion with the super torch forecast as we head in to March ... yeah that on didn't go so well for him. That said I don't think WDM forecast is going to bust like the Quad City AFD so I don't expect him to need this " " at all. Bill Marino (WDM) is the lead forecaster for the GRR NWS. He often does very nice, detailed discussions for extended forecasts. He seems to get excited for cold and snowstorms. He balances out all the other guys in the office who seem to flee from any discussion of snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Whoever told you this is, wrong and enough with the JB love. whNo one around here cares what a broken clock has to say. If you absolutely need to discuss at the broken clock has to say, keep it in the banter thread. I really don't understand why there is so much hate for JB. Is it because maybe he's better than you at his job? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I really don't understand why there is so much hate for JB. Is it because maybe he's better than you at his job?For one being a go to "expert" on Fox News should be your first hint he maybe a little crazy. Secondly as was said earlier he will never miss a cold shot, just the same way he will never call a warm shot in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I really don't understand why there is so much hate for JB. Is it because maybe he's better than you at his job? Or maybe... It is because he always calls for cold weather and when he happens to get it right like last year, he is celebratory like he just won some big prize. Like I said, the broken clock model. Also, his views on climatic change are about as wacky and unbelievable as can get. Thanks for the pot shot though, mister 64 total posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 JB doesn't help himself when he goes off on his climate rants and over the top NWS bashing. I used to read him when it was free and I do think he has something worthwhile to offer the wx community when he keeps the focus on forecasting and keeps his biases at bay, but it seems like that isn't easy for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Didnt think there was anything wrong with what GRR did. The CPC just defaults to warm for their seasonal forecast anyway...its pure garbage. The CPC does default to warm, only to change to cold at the short term. Any outlook beyond 1 month is absolutely worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Or maybe... It is because he always calls for cold weather and when he happens to get it right like last year, he is celebratory like he just won some big prize. Like I said, the broken clock model. Also, his views on climatic change are about as wacky and unbelievable as can get. Thanks for the pot shot though, mister 64 total posts. Well when nobody really predicted a cold winter like he did last year you can't really blame him for bragging. I never saw you come up with a winter forecast last year that predicted cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Well when nobody really predicted a cold winter like he did last year you can't really blame him for bragging. I never saw you come up with a winter forecast last year that predicted cold. What about the several years beforehand where he called for cold and they ended up being warm? You must be kidding with this nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 JB admits to his cold bias. He likes cold snowy weather so he's always looking for a way for that to happen, often grasping at the slightest chance for that to happen even, instead of giving up when it's apparent that something he is calling for won't happen. He's very good at pattern recognition, but often does miss on individual storms because he kind of wishcasts them. He does go on long winded rants about various things and that does get annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 What about the several years beforehand where he called for cold and they ended up being warm? You must be kidding with this nonsense. like this.... AccuWeather.com Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi believes there is a significant chance for particularly frigid winters in 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 into 2014-2015. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/combination-of-factors-could-m/36990 this may also be a good time to start a new medium/long thread.....part 2.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.