Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Let's hope today's Euro weeklies are correct (for weeks 3-4). I saw those. Almost looks like a late December 1993 to January 1994 flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It sure would be ironic if the Buffalo region had a green Christmas after all the snow it received last month!90% of buffalo had green grass by the next week lets just hope most of us can get a white Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Which at face value would be terrible for here. Isn't it kinda hard to say for sure since that is a weekly view of height anomalies? I'd be interested in how week 3 looks but even then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 90% of buffalo had green grass by the next week lets just hope most of us can get a white Christmas It was mid November. I'm not sure what you would expect with average daytime highs in the mid to upper 40s. That storm was a huge anomaly. 95% of the time mid November snows would be gone in most places outside of Canada or higher elevations within a week. (Even with SWE in the 6-6.5 range) I would still love to relive that storm every single year even if it was gone the very next day. Best storm of my life 90 inches in 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Isn't it kinda hard to say for sure since that is a weekly view of height anomalies? I'd be interested in how week 3 looks but even then... In the day to days on the mean, the trough is predominantly focused east of the Mississippi. That is an east coast snowstorm setup, it wouldn't be favorable for most in this region. It looks like something in the southern stream, that would get reinforced once you get along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 In the day to days on the mean, the trough is predominantly focused east of the Mississippi. That is an east coast snowstorm setup, it wouldn't be favorable for most in this region. Is that week 4 or week 3 you're talking about? (not that it matters a whole lot at this range) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Is that week 4 or week 3 you're talking about? (not that it matters a whole lot at this range) Week 3 into week 4, the edit I made above points out how the trough is formed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 CAUTION! - Take it fwiw! Here's some 500 hPa maps from the 12z EURO ensemble control run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Geos, man, that's worse than posting the 15 day GFS. Now people are going to get all excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Geos, man, that's worse than posting the 15 day GFS. Now people are going to get all excited. Yeah that will change several times over, the EPS is just for eyecandy at that range, the bigger key is watching the mean for trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It was mid November. I'm not sure what you would expect with average daytime highs in the mid to upper 40s. That storm was a huge anomaly. 95% of the time mid November snows would be gone in most places outside of Canada or higher elevations within a week. (Even with SWE in the 6-6.5 range) I would still love to relive that storm every single year even if it was gone the very next day. Best storm of my life 90 inches in 3 days. I know lol but thats why I was joking its really not that hard to believe theyd have a green Christmas seeing as though they went bare before Thanksgiving. Snow here typically lasts a few days in Nov...so a full week straight of white was very unusual as it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Geos, man, that's worse than posting the 15 day GFS. Now people are going to get all excited. Well.... everyone was talking about the weeklies, so I decided to post a sample of it! (No worse than B. Anderson posting his weekly maps, imo) Like Stebo said, if it continues - then we might have something that has legs to it. It will be interesting to look back on this "if" we get a pattern like this in week 3 and 4. Day 10 or 20, either trend in the models could bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Which at face value would be terrible for here. Yep but precip maps don't look as bad. Near normal here and East coast.. This is for both week 3 and 4. The only above normal precip ( slightly above ) is well offshore.. EPIC -EPO/+PNA.. Heights are lower across Greenland and thus neutral/+NAO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Well.... everyone was talking about the weeklies, so I decided to post a sample of it! (No worse than B. Anderson posting his weekly maps, imo) Like Stebo said, if it continues - then we might have something that has legs to it. It will be interesting to look back on this "if" we get a pattern like this in week 3 and 4. Day 10 or 20, either trend in the models could bust. This torch has been talked about for 2 weeks and is at least another week away, so I certainly dont see a problem with posting what you did. It shouldnt even need a disclaimer to be taken with a grain of salt, that goes for all long range stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Yep but precip maps don't look as bad. Near normal here and East coast.. This is for both week 3 and 4. The only above normal precip ( slightly above ) is well offshore.. EPIC -EPO/+PNA.. Heights are lower across Greenland and thus neutral/+NAO.. Could get into a nw flow clipper type pattern with that sort of setup. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Could get into a nw flow clipper type pattern with that sort of setup. Better than nothing. it's inevitable....but yes, better than nothing at least the pacific will be open for business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 A clipper pattern for the Christmas to New Years holiday week would actually be a dream scenario. Setting the mood without cancelling festivities/parties. If only we could lock it in. Then...let the big storms commence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 MJO for the win? I was thinking the 12z Euro ensembles didn't look too bad in the long range (not great, but better than they'd been), so it's nice to see the weeklies catch on too. Now lets lock it in for more than one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 A clipper pattern for the Christmas to New Years holiday week would actually be a dream scenario. Setting the mood without cancelling festivities/parties. If only we could lock it in. Then...let the big storms commence! I'll take a nice 6 inches for everyone around the great lakes around Dec. 18th-23rd please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Could get into a nw flow clipper type pattern with that sort of setup. Better than nothing. Agree. Would be nice though to lose some of the +PNA ridging and thus force the trough a little further west. Still plenty of time though. Hopefully we can torch good as that would help the lake cause down the road which is needed after all the cold we have had.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Zzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 the end of GRRs morning forecast discussion... BEYOND THAT... THAT UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO SET IN SO A SLOW WARM UPFOLLOWS.WEEK TWO FORECAST...(FRIDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING THURSDAY) HERE IS WERE WE MAY SEE A MAJOR TURN AROUND IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERNAND BRING WINTER BACK INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. AS IT TURNS OUT THEMJO IS IN QUAD 5 DOING VERY NICELY. THIS SUGGEST WARM WEATHER FORMOST OF THE CONUS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS LONG RANGE FORECAST BRINGTHE MJO TO QUAD 7-8 AROUND THE END OF WEEK TWO. THIS BRINGS COLDWEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THEECMWF 51 REMEMBER ENSEMBLES FROM THE 4TH DO INDEED SHOW THISHAPPENING AS DEEP TROUGH RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE ENDOF NEXT WEEK. SO EXPECT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TILL AROUNDWEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK... THEN WINTER COMES BACK I cannot EVER recall an AFD discussing something well beyond their 7-day forecast window. About the most I can recall is a little hint like "a big regime/pattern change appears possible just outside the forecast period" or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 the end of GRRs morning forecast discussion... BEYOND THAT... THAT UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO SET IN SO A SLOW WARM UP FOLLOWS. WEEK TWO FORECAST...(FRIDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING THURSDAY) HERE IS WERE WE MAY SEE A MAJOR TURN AROUND IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN AND BRING WINTER BACK INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. AS IT TURNS OUT THE MJO IS IN QUAD 5 DOING VERY NICELY. THIS SUGGEST WARM WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS LONG RANGE FORECAST BRING THE MJO TO QUAD 7-8 AROUND THE END OF WEEK TWO. THIS BRINGS COLD WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF 51 REMEMBER ENSEMBLES FROM THE 4TH DO INDEED SHOW THIS HAPPENING AS DEEP TROUGH RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO EXPECT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TILL AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK... THEN WINTER COMES BACK I cannot EVER recall an AFD discussing something well beyond their 7-day forecast window. About the most I can recall is a little hint like "a big regime/pattern change appears possible just outside the forecast period" or something like that. That forecaster does this all the time in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I'll take a nice 6 inches for everyone around the great lakes around Dec. 18th-23rd please. I remember there was a big storm around December 22, 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 12Z GFS sniffing glue or reality....? the troughs at least look reasonable for once....not sure ultimately what it provides for winter precip, if any....but at least it's a step in the (IMO) correct direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 That forecaster does this all the time in the winter. Interesting...I will have to look at GRRs discos more often! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Interesting...I will have to look at GRRs discos more often! +1..... Some warmth might be coming as the MJO makes the turn but I still think cold is the king for the region. Temperatures will take time to build but will flip back to winter on a big storm. Seems to be the pattern for some time, I bet it will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 +1..... Some warmth might be coming as the MJO makes the turn but I still think cold is the king for the region. Temperatures will take time to build but will flip back to winter on a big storm. Seems to be the pattern for some time, I bet it will continue. The trend has got to break at some point but who knows....we should be guarnteed a few mild days but as for prolonged Im not so sure anymore. Its constantly being pushed back. Oh, and I see no posts here discussing the 12z GFS like there have been every other day this week. Wonder why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 +1..... Some warmth might be coming as the MJO makes the turn but I still think cold is the king for the region. Temperatures will take time to build but will flip back to winter on a big storm. Seems to be the pattern for some time, I bet it will continue. 12z GFS seems to be showing just that. Big midwest storm on the 15th and then turns cold after that through the rest of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 12Z GFS sniffing glue or reality....? the troughs at least look reasonable for once....not sure ultimately what it provides for winter precip, if any....but at least it's a step in the (IMO) correct direction It's the OP GFS, so take it fwiw, but that was the first run in a long time where beyond 300 hrs didn't look like absolute doggie do-do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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