sokolow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 From the mind of business strategist Jeff Saut, apparentlyhttp://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44158-winter-2014-15-discussion/page-4#entry3063793 Meanwhile, image.jpg I had been keeping an eye out because I was wondering where the small & medium eruptions angle had come from, if it was something some crank investment strategist had made up, and if there were any substance to it that would go against the conventional take which mainly puts weight on large, highly explosive events.These have been making the rounds and the first is interesting to me anyhow because it argues support for a climate effect from atmospheric aerosol loading via medium (VI less than 4) volcanic eruptions, reassigning SO2 increases from coal emissions. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL047563/full The second argues a link to seasonal weather, and may be of more interest to the GLOHV crowd, http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n10/full/nclimate2341.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 +10 850s to like Edmonton on the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 +10 850s to like Edmonton on the 12z Euro We might have to tow the snowmobiles 650 miles north on the last week of December, even then... We might be out of luck. Hearst, Ontario was able to escape all the torches of 2011-2012, +25F for them is still below freezing.. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgYqIvnPvqQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 We might have to tow the snowmobiles 650 miles north on the last week of December, even then... We might be out of luck. Hearst, Ontario was able to escape all the torches of 2011-2012, +25F for them is still below freezing.. LOL. based on what all the knowledge Mets are saying, I highly doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 keep the faith brotha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 We might have to tow the snowmobiles 650 miles north on the last week of December, even then... We might be out of luck. Hearst, Ontario was able to escape all the torches of 2011-2012, +25F for them is still below freezing.. LOL. Isn't that below freezing for everyone? edit: never mind....+25F departure is below freezing. got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgYqIvnPvqQ haven't heard that one in awhile lol...sure hope it's not stuck in my head now the rest of the night.... the 2 week torch will fail...and will likely be condensed into a 48 to 72 (maybe) hour warm up....but those heights you posted have to happen sooner or later...it fits....after that hopefully we can start adding some good ingredients to the mixer just in time for the holidays ... until those heights happen, the options are limited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Here comes that jet. Nice model presentation at least... Ridging also present: Yet another Upper Midwest snowstorm in the making? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 based on what all the knowledge Mets are saying, I highly doubt that. keep the faith brotha JB seems to be keeping the faith today in his video. He thinks there'll be a winter storm around the 10th and that the warm-up coming is just a temporary pull-back, adding that once winter truly gets going in January it may last through to April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 JB seems to be keeping the faith today in his video. He thinks there'll be a winter storm around the 10th and that the warm-up coming is just a temporary pull-back, adding that once winter truly gets going in January it may last through to April. JB is full of it and using the broken clock model, his reasoning for a storm is futile unless you happen to live maybe in New England and the potential coastal comes to futrition. As for the majority of this subforum there won't be a storm and his commentary is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 JB is full of it and using the broken clock model, his reasoning for a storm is futile unless you happen to live maybe in New England and the potential coastal comes to futrition. As for the majority of this subforum there won't be a storm and his commentary is useless. Agree about the storm. It'll be interesting to see, though, if severe cold moves in come January to balance out this upcoming torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Generally speaking, it increases the chances of cold weather in the CONUS. It's not the only way to get cold though, and there are exceptions to the -AO/cold US rule. Got it, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 JB seems to be keeping the faith today in his video. He thinks there'll be a winter storm around the 10th and that the warm-up coming is just a temporary pull-back, adding that once winter truly gets going in January it may last through to April. Yup, this brotha will keep the faith. Because you know its such a leap of faith to think that in FOUR WEEKS the upper peninsula of MI will have snow on snowmobile trails Seriously though. Im sure this warm up will happen at some point, but its hilarious that all we heard was the first half of December will be warm, and by the looks of things...we will be at a NEGATIVE TEMP DEPARTURE for the month after the first two weeks. Its constantly being pushed back back back. No, its not a fun pattern regardless of the temps, but it seems every day this torch gets pushed further and further back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Let's hope today's Euro weeklies are correct (for weeks 3-4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Let's hope today's Euro weeklies are correct (for weeks 3-4). Yeah Ricky and I haven't but texting about these. An improvement for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yeah Ricky and I haven't but texting about these. An improvement for sure. Monday night's run was decent, but today's are even better. The control run was really fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Let's hope today's Euro weeklies are correct (for weeks 3-4). what do they show? Im assuming that means they are good...but then when the hell is this supposed torch happening? Its going to have to squeeze in somewhere in week 2? Weeklies havent been at their best, but neither have any models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Let's hope today's Euro weeklies are correct (for weeks 3-4). Heard they look pretty good. Question for you though...is the timeframe the same as previous runs or is it getting nudged back, because it seems like the latter but it may be that my perception is off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Monday night's run was decent, but today's are even better. The control run was really fun. Yeah the 850mb temp departures on the control run beyond day 20 are quite cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 what do they show? Im assuming that means they are good...but then when the hell is this supposed torch happening? Its going to have to squeeze in somewhere in week 2? Weeklies havent been at their best, but neither have any models. Warmth is still there, but it's the same thing as the Euro ensembles...the weeklies are basically a continuation of the EPS past 15 days. It is gonna happen, the warmth...but, shouldn't be a surprise at this point. As for the good stuff, beyond day 15 we move into a neutral AO/+NAO and -EPO pattern. Below normal temps start a couple of days before Christmas...and then run to the end. And looks to offer some chances at some storminess. Like I said, hope it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Heard they look pretty good. Question for you though...is the timeframe the same as previous runs or is it getting nudged back, because it seems like the latter but it may be that my perception is off. Timeframe, as when the good stuff starts happening? If so, there really wasn't anything great from last week...not horrid...but today's are certainly the "best" look. So I guess there was no set baseline for changes, sort of speak. Though Monday's night run was ok for these same time periods. Weeklies haven't been rock solid, but they did have the upcoming warm period pegged pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Warmth is still there, but it's the same thing as the Euro ensembles...the weeklies are basically a continuation of the EPS past 15 days. It is gonna happen, the warmth...but, shouldn't be a surprise at this point. As for the good stuff, beyond day 15 we move into a neutral AO/+NAO and -EPO pattern. Below normal temps start a couple of days before Christmas...and then run to the end. And looks to offer some chances at some storminess. Like I said, hope it's right. We had that kind of regime at various points last winter. I'd gladly roll the dice on it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Warmth is still there, but it's the same thing as the Euro ensembles...the weeklies are basically a continuation of the EPS past 15 days. It is gonna happen, the warmth...but, shouldn't be a surprise at this point. As for the good stuff, beyond day 15 we move into a neutral AO/+NAO and -EPO pattern. Below normal temps start a couple of days before Christmas...and then run to the end. And looks to offer some chances at some storminess. Like I said, hope it's right. Same here. Winter isn't a real winter unless it's cold and snowy around Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 So based on the past several posts, there's no new news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I'd say the change to a colder look has been delayed a little, but it's still around and basically going how it was expected. The Weeklies saw the warmup happening weeks ago, so it's nice that it's showing it ending, even if it is a few weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Warmth is still there, but it's the same thing as the Euro ensembles...the weeklies are basically a continuation of the EPS past 15 days. It is gonna happen, the warmth...but, shouldn't be a surprise at this point. As for the good stuff, beyond day 15 we move into a neutral AO/+NAO and -EPO pattern. Below normal temps start a couple of days before Christmas...and then run to the end. And looks to offer some chances at some storminess. Like I said, hope it's right. Definitely want the cold to return for Christmas (and beyond!). It will be interesting to see how long the warmth lasts. Because it sure is getting pushed back back back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Ginxy Posted this in the New England Thread: Ginxy, on 04 Dec 2014 - 7:40 PM, said: Happy New Year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Ginxy Posted this in the New England Thread: Ginxy, on 04 Dec 2014 - 7:40 PM, said: Which at face value would be terrible for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Same here. Winter isn't a real winter unless it's cold and snowy around Xmas. It sure would be ironic if the Buffalo region had a green Christmas after all the snow it received last month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.