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Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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Dec 2011,

Dec 2006,

Dec 2001,

Dec 1999,

Dec 1998.

Punt worthy Decembers are not exactly unheard of. And that's just recent memory.

oh dont misunderstand....im not saying there cant be an entire December thats punted, there have been MANY over the years....im just saying its silly to punt an entire month when said month has 4 weeks remaining.
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oh dont misunderstand....im not saying there cant be an entire December thats punted, there have been MANY over the years....im just saying its silly to punt an entire month when said month has 4 weeks remaining.

 

I'd say its safe to punt right up till Xmas... It's a bad, bad, BAD pattern to be in.

 

The fact is that there isn't any cold air on this side of the planet.

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Gonna have to go through a warmer period regardless. Doubtful it hangs around for very long and thus most of the month..

 

Personally i am ok with it because the previous cold pattern was not doing much for me. Time to shake things up and this looks to do that and thus shake things up a bit. Anything is better then cold and boring.. jmho

 

AGreed with the bolded.

 

The afternoon sunshine today was a nice welcome too...

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An advisory-criteria snowfall under a 1028mb surface high?

 

Seems legit...

 

 

You would think there would be more lowering of pressure at the surface with that.

 

Talking about punting... I think my area in Colorado won't see more than a trace of precipitation for 15-30 days.

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You would think there would be more lowering of pressure at the surface with that.

 

Talking about punting... I think my area in Colorado won't see more than a trace of precipitation for 15-30 days.

 

I'm going to get bored. It reminds me of the droughts I experienced in Oklahoma.

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NJ Winter23 posted this on the New England thread:nino_7_dic_low.png

Which looks similar to what the models/ensembles are showing as far as the upper pattern when some of them prog the MJO to reach phase 7.

Wow, that is not at all what the CPC composite (that Harry posted) for phase 7 suggested. The only difference is that your composite is stratified by +ENSO.

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Gonna have to go through a warmer period regardless. Doubtful it hangs around for very long and thus most of the month..

 

Personally i am ok with it because the previous cold pattern was not doing much for me. Time to shake things up and this looks to do that and thus shake things up a bit. Anything is better then cold and boring.. jmho

:huh:  Harry?

That pattern that did nothing for you gave you guys like 20" of lake effect snow, and record amounts across western MI.  Better watch out, ma nature is gonna slap your ass down for being an ingrate.

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Here's the website that composite came from: http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

After looking at the Phase 7/Nada and Phase 7/Nina plots on that site, the differences with the CPC MJO anomalies cannot be readily explained. My guess is that maybe one is time-lagged and one isn't, but I don't know for sure. The metadata for CPC doesn't say one way or the other and there is no metadata on the Meteonetwork site. Until someone can explain the discrepancy I would have to assume the CPC ccomposites are the more appropriate ones for us to follow. They are also more in line with prevailing thought that progression to Phase 7 is good, not bad.

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NJ Winter23 posted this on the New England thread:

nino_7_dic_low.png

Which looks similar to what the models/ensembles are showing as far as the upper pattern when some of them prog the MJO to reach phase 7.

 

 

Here's the website that composite came from: http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

 

 

:huh:  Harry?

That pattern that did nothing for you gave you guys like 20" of lake effect snow, and record amounts across western MI.  Better watch out, ma nature is gonna slap your ass down for being an ingrate.

 

meh.. I would rather some system action especially with the lake running colder then normal. My total wasn't that much but not to far away it was. Flow was just a bit to westerly/wsw even for a brief period. Preferred flow here in wnw. Where i am at you need a decent set up to get decent LES. That was close.. Everything was there but the preferred flow direction.

 

 

 

After looking at the Phase 7/Nada and Phase 7/Nina plots on that site, the differences with the CPC MJO anomalies cannot be readily explained. My guess is that maybe one is time-lagged and one isn't, but I don't know for sure. The metadata for CPC doesn't say one way or the other and there is no metadata on the Meteonetwork site. Until someone can explain the discrepancy I would have to assume the CPC ccomposites are the more appropriate ones for us to follow. They are also more in line with prevailing thought that progression to Phase 7 is good, not bad.

 

 

This.. As long as i have been following that is how it has worked and thus via cpc regardless of enso.. There has been a discussion about this before on this forum in the main wx forum if i am not mistaken?

 

That is skewed towards enso climo ( thus accounts for all including unusual events ) i am willing to bet as well and that is not good either.

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This.. As long as i have been following that is how it has worked and thus via cpc regardless of enso.. There has been a discussion about this before on this forum in the main wx forum if i am not mistaken?

That is skewed towards enso climo ( thus accounts for all including unusual events ) i am willing to bet as well and that is not good either.

Oh, derp. Good point. CPC filters out the MJO signal. Those composites from Mesonetwork don't and are therefore junk for our purposes.

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:huh: Harry?

That pattern that did nothing for you gave you guys like 20" of lake effect snow, and record amounts across western MI. Better watch out, ma nature is gonna slap your ass down for being an ingrate.

I shrugged my shoulders on that comment too.

We just had a top 10 November for nearly the state of Michigan. The pattern gave me my earliest snowmobile ride of my life on 2 feet of snow on November 20th.

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I shrugged my shoulders on that comment too.

We just had a top 10 November for nearly the state of Michigan. The pattern gave me my earliest snowmobile ride of my life on 2 feet of snow on November 20th.

 

 

I already explained this. Those closer to the border ( i-94 south ) did not do as well as those a little further north. The cut off out this way ( from north to south ) was pretty sharp thanks to the west/wsw flow. Yes it was nice but it took 5-7 days to get the numbers we did here imby. Came out to about 2-3" a day. Nothing to write home about. Heck there was a difference of 4-6" from the north side ( highest totals ) of BC to the south side which had the least. I have seen much better les events imby and there has been better in November as well. See Nov 2000 for starters. Had the flow been wnw then it is doubtful i would have said the same. Not sayi8ng it was terrible. Just not my cup of tea. I prefer bigger events.

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I'll agree with Harry ... while I enjoyed the November fun it was mainly LES except for the northern storm which Bo got slammed. The pattern has been mainly dry and boring storm wise for quite some time now.

I too would like to get into cold stormy pattern and not just LES. Hopefully the pattern is going to do just that. The models are just all over the place right now with a heck of a lot going on.

Again I don't want to belittle what just happened in November. I really enjoyed it. But now would be a good time to shift things around so things can get more in line for us with storms in the Great Lakes area and not just LES.

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I'll agree with Harry ... while I enjoyed the November fun it was mainly LES except for the northern storm which Bo got slammed. The pattern has been mainly dry and boring storm wise for quite some time now.

I too would like to get into cold stormy pattern and not just LES. Hopefully the pattern is going to do just that. The models are just all over the place right now with a heck of a lot going on.

Again I don't want to belittle what just happened in November. I really enjoyed it. But now would be a good time to shift things around so things can get more in line for us with storms in the Great Lakes area and not just LES.

 

Didn't your backyard get 6-8" of pure LES during the same event?

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I'll agree with Harry ... while I enjoyed the November fun it was mainly LES except for the northern storm which Bo got slammed. The pattern has been mainly dry and boring storm wise for quite some time now.

I too would like to get into cold stormy pattern and not just LES. Hopefully the pattern is going to do just that. The models are just all over the place right now with a heck of a lot going on.

Again I don't want to belittle what just happened in November. I really enjoyed it. But now would be a good time to shift things around so things can get more in line for us with storms in the Great Lakes area and not just LES.

LES is too hit or miss. Of my 4.1" in November, 2.6" was synoptic and 1.5" LES. The liquid equivalent of that 4.1" of snow came out to 0.25".
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LES is too hit or miss. Of my 4.1" in November, 2.6" was synoptic and 1.5" LES. The liquid equivalent of that 4.1" of snow came out to 0.25".

Exactly.  In addition if the same event occurs in January and February I would not have received nearly the amount of LES I got in November.  It would have been mostly a cold dry day later in winter.

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It's no where near "there" yet but the end of the 0z Euro does look a little better in the Pacific. At least that huge low south of Alaska that is going to flood the country with Pacific air is weaker. All of the models still for the most part like the MJO getting into phase 7 in a week to 10 days so that improvement makes sense.

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The warmth keeps getting pushed back....I actually want it to just get here (if it must) so its out of the way for Christmas. Im thinking by December 10 we are still BELOW normal for December. The models look ugly but the signs look better (for around 2 weeks from now...theres no escaping the blah next few weeks).

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