Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion

[Jonger]

literally fell asleep while looping the 12z GFS

Pacific flow is why there are almost no west coast weather weenies. Notice Andyhb had to post here, Vancouver= zzzzzzz

Now the whole lower 48 is going into Vancouver like flow.

[snowstormcanuck]

I'm still liking my call. You want to punt it out of the end zone, I'm thinking more like downing it inside the 5.

 

Love ya man, but I got 20 on Aleking. Patterns once established never seem to dislodge quickly.

[A-L-E-K]

Pacific flow is why there are almost no west coast weather weenies. Notice Andyhb had to post here, Vancouver= zzzzzzz

Now the whole lower 48 is going into Vancouver like flow.

 

 

the mountains around vancouver regularly see snow like you can only dream of, it's a killer climo

[Hoosier]

Wow, anyone see the 00z Euro at the end of the run?  Absolute inferno especially western subforum and westward into the Plains.  It's a pretty extreme look so I wouldn't be surprised if it backs down.

[Jonger]

the mountains around vancouver regularly see snow like you can only dream of, it's a killer climo

Oh I know. Big snowmobiling spot. The city itself is a snore fest, buy ya.. the mountains are unreal.

[Hoosier]

Love ya man, but I got 20 on Aleking. Patterns once established never seem to dislodge quickly.

 

 

Might be a typhoon recurve fail as well.

[A-L-E-K]

Wow, anyone see the 00z Euro at the end of the run?  Absolute inferno especially western subforum and westward into the Plains.  It's a pretty extreme look so I wouldn't be surprised if it backs down.

 

 

ChicagoWx already booked a tee time

[Thundersnow12]

ChicagoWx already booked a tee time

 

speaking of, I'm going to try to play this weekend. Near 40 is sunny works 

[michsnowfreak]

Love ya man, but I got 20 on Aleking. Patterns once established never seem to dislodge quickly.

Punting the ENTIRE month is stupid, at least at this point. But til at least the week before Christmas, dont expect much.

[snowstormcanuck]

Punting the ENTIRE month is stupid, at least at this point. But til at least the week before Christmas, dont expect much.

 

Dec 2011,

Dec 2006,

Dec 2001,

Dec 1999,

Dec 1998.

 

Punt worthy Decembers are not exactly unheard of. And that's just recent memory.

[Toronto4]

Dec 2011,

Dec 2006,

Dec 2001,

Dec 1999,

Dec 1998.

Punt worthy Decembers are not exactly unheard of. And that's just recent memory.

Another one for Toronto is December 1996. Very mild and snow-free until Christmas before a clipper system gave 4" in the early morning hours of December 31st. November that year was quite cold.

Another one to digest is Dec. 1965. That winter was an El-Nino. The pattern didn't turn until the 7th of January of 1966.

We can also put Dec. 2002 and 2003 on this list. Both years had lengthy mild and boring periods in December. 2003 had a 4" snow event on the 14th, but from that point on until early January, it was very mild and quiet. 2002 was a bit better with some snow mid month and on Christmas day, but for the most part, it was quiet too.

[Snowstorms]

Dec 2011,

Dec 2006,

Dec 2001,

Dec 1999,

Dec 1998.

 

Punt worthy Decembers are not exactly unheard of. And that's just recent memory.

 

Dec 2012 was pretty bad too. Temperatures were a good 3 degrees above normal and we didn't get any decent snow till the end of the month. In fact, we had a string of some bad Decembers from 2009-2012. December 2010 may have been cold, but YYZ only recorded 2.5 inches, lol. 

 

As for the next few weeks, the consistent +EPO/AO pattern pushes the Arctic Air further north and bathes the entire nation in above normal temperatures. Whats even worse is the lack of precipitation in the region. GGEM develops a closed Low off the East Coast which may circulate some Low level cooling and give them another potential at seeing some accumulating snow. I'm not liking the signs so far. 

 

If we do see any SSW, and I'm confident that we will given the explosive Siberian Snow cover this season, it'll likely hold off till after Christmas. If it does happen, January could wind up being a cold month across the consensus, a far cry from what were likely to experience this month.

 

But hey, its only December 3rd, so I wouldn't give up just yet. 

[snowstormcanuck]

Another one for Toronto is December 1996. Very mild and snow-free until Christmas before a clipper system gave 4" in the early morning hours of December 31st. November that year was quite cold.

Another one to digest is Dec. 1965. That winter was an El-Nino. The pattern didn't turn until the 7th of January of 1966.

We can also put Dec. 2002 and 2003 on this list. Both years had lengthy mild and boring periods in December. 2003 had a 4" snow event on the 14th, but from that point on until early January, it was very mild and quiet. 2002 was a bit better with some snow mid month and on Christmas day, but for the most part, it was quiet too.

 

Late 1990s really did violence to the notion of the picture postcard Christmas. Even Dec 1997, from what I recall, was lousy. Tough time to be a kid. 

[Toronto4]

Late 1990s really did violence to the notion of the picture postcard Christmas. Even Dec 1997, from what I recall, was lousy. Tough time to be a kid.

For sure. 1997 was a lousy one indeed. But the good news I don't expect the rest of this winter to resemble 1997-98. The pattern will eventually change, but it will take a while to do so. I'm guessing sometime between Christmas and New Years as the time period where we start to see signs of a positive change.

[Toronto4]

It will be interesting to see how this December fares out, temperature wise. For the southern Ontario area, it looks like a series of high pressure systems to the north moving west to east to Quebec will allow for some cold shots to make its way. One of them is early next week. See today's 12z Euro for example. But the time period after that (late next week into the week of Dec. 14) is one that will either be a super mega torch (temperatures in the high 40s to high 50s) or a muted version (with a lot of days with high min temps and max temps in the high 30s to low 40s). It will be interesting to see how things will fare out.

[Harry]

So i guess this has no influence at all?

 

 

Basically what some are saying?

[Toronto4]

So i guess this has no influence at all?

Basically what some are saying?

Let's hope this will be enough to change this for the better. The cold shot early next week and the PNA spike is looking more impressive.

[Hoosier]

So i guess this has no influence at all?

 

 

Basically what some are saying?

 

 

Do you know what the Euro is showing for the MJO?  I know it had been less bullish with propagation.

[A-L-E-K]

[Chicago Storm]

Do you know what the Euro is showing for the MJO?  I know it had been less bullish with propagation.

 

And the climo based version makes it to phase 7 before moving into the COD.

[Harry]

Do you know what the Euro is showing for the MJO?  I know it had been less bullish with propagation.

 

 

Right here...

 

 

 

 

 

That is what the models should show. Once the MJO moves into the colder phases the models will go the same direction.

 

Does this look familiar? Note phase 5-6..

[Harry]

 

And the climo based version makes it to phase 7 before moving into the COD.

 

 

I posted the euro ensembles.. just as well..

 

here is all of them and thus most of the models..

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

[Harry]

Gonna have to go through a warmer period regardless. Doubtful it hangs around for very long and thus most of the month..

 

Personally i am ok with it because the previous cold pattern was not doing much for me. Time to shake things up and this looks to do that and thus shake things up a bit. Anything is better then cold and boring.. jmho

[Thundersnow12]

So i guess this has no influence at all?

 

 

Basically what some are saying?

 

Some like to ride the straight op runs at 240hr and don't have an understanding of the MJO I guess. 

 

Victor Gensini and myself were talking quite a bit about the MJO today. Hopefully it can push through phase 7

[Hoosier]

Thanks guys.  My question for those who have followed the MJO closely throughout the years...how good of a predictor is it, i.e. how often does the outcome differ from what the composite suggests?

[Jonger]

Dec 2011,

Dec 2006,

Dec 2001,

Dec 1999,

Dec 1998.

 

Punt worthy Decembers are not exactly unheard of. And that's just recent memory.

 

 

1984

1982 <---BAD

1979

1971

1967

1965

1959

[Thundersnow12]

More amplified look today..

 

 

[Harry]

More amplified look today..

 

gfs mjo.gif

 

 

I would rather it drop into the COD in phase 7.

[wishforsnow]

Late 1990s really did violence to the notion of the picture postcard Christmas. Even Dec 1997, from what I recall, was lousy. Tough time to be a kid. 

 Yeah winter of '97-'98 there was a very strong el nino. Here in the Keweenaw most of the snow we received was in November and not much after that. I remember one day in December sitting out on the back deck just wearing tshirt watching the snowmobilers blow their engines on the trail right behind the house.  I can remember the bulb flowers started blooming mid February and the snowmobile trails were down to dirt. The NWS reported 130 inches of snow at the county airport that winter. Normally I think the average is like 240 inches or more just depends the terrain.

[Rainman]

I would rather it drop into the COD in phase 7.

 

Agree.  At the rate the GEFS is going, it's going to start raging through phases 1 and 2  again as soon as things start to improve.