Geos Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Little ways still, but the GFS is holding onto snow chances in the region ahead of the Arctic outbreak next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Good lord, the 18z GFS brings down 850mb temps to -20 deg C next Tuesday. That is beyond crazy for this time of year.We had similar temps at 850mb last November (officially, 850mb temps of -19*C celsius was observed in Detroit), but it didn't translate into extreme cold at the surface, due to the lack of snowcover (which may be the case this go around as well).In fact, I don't even think Detroit had a day last November with surface high temps at/below the freezing mark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 We had similar temps at 850mb last November (officially, 850mb temps of -19*C celsius was observed in Detroit), but it didn't translate into extreme cold at the surface, due to the lack of snowcover (which may be the case this go around as well). In fact, I don't even think Detroit had a day last November with surface high temps at/below the freezing mark... Actually there were 5 days at or below freezing for highs last November. 23rd 31 24th 26 25th 32 27th 30 28th 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Actually there were 5 days at or below freezing for highs last November. 23rd 31 24th 26 25th 32 27th 30 28th 29 lol good work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Actually there were 5 days at or below freezing for highs last November. 23rd 31 24th 26 25th 32 27th 30 28th 29 My mistake. I was thinking of the cold outbreak we had around the 11th through 13th in November 2013. Looking back, the lowest that 850mb temps actually got for the 11/11/13 through 11/13/13 cold outbreak was only -10*C to -15*C... But the dates you referenced was when DTX measured a record low 850mb temp of -19*C on the morning of 11/24/13. But still, as stated above, it didn't translate into extreme cold at the surface due to the lack of snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 My mistake. I was thinking of the cold outbreak we had around the 11th through 13th in November 2013. Looking back, the lowest that 850mb temps actually got for the 11/11/13 through 11/13/13 cold outbreak was only -10*C to -15*C... But the dates you referenced was when DTX measured a record low 850mb temp of -19*C on the morning of 11/24/13. But still, as stated above, it didn't translate into extreme cold at the surface due to the lack of snowcover. Yup, just a couple dustings of snow last November & those have little no no impact on temps (ironically, there were 5 days with a T of snow on the ground last November, but only ONE of those days was when the high was below freezing, and that was on Thanksgiving the 28th). The phrase "Lack of snowcover" in a discussion of the 2013-14 season...now thats a first Jokes aside, its actually not that uncommon for these early cold snaps to produce little snow. It may seem unfair, when places in warmer climes seem to get their first sticking snow before they hit freezing, while we have to deal with cold, but its just how it goes sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Newest CPC 6-10 day outlook. Pretty unusual to see 90% probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 gfsp_z500a_us_26.png That model also has a sizeable area of sub 510 dm 1000-500 mb thicknesses. Really impressive stuff for mid-November should it pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 gfsp_z500a_us_26.png Looks chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 My mistake. I was thinking of the cold outbreak we had around the 11th through 13th in November 2013. Looking back, the lowest that 850mb temps actually got for the 11/11/13 through 11/13/13 cold outbreak was only -10*C to -15*C... But the dates you referenced was when DTX measured a record low 850mb temp of -19*C on the morning of 11/24/13. But still, as stated above, it didn't translate into extreme cold at the surface due to the lack of snowcover. As Stebo pointed out quite well it did translate to the surface for November. We live in an area heavily impacted by the Great Lake Temps. In November the GLs are still in the 40s/50s. Plus the soil (ground) is not solidly frozen in November nor are the local inland lakes. These 2 factors play a significant role in affecting MI surface temps. Throughout winter we see times when areas to our south in IN and OH have colder overnight lows when we have winds off the lakes. While yes the snow cover would help the ground temp some but the lake influence is there until the Great Lakes are frozen or have significantly ice covered. In fact last year we were ice-skating in early December IMBY which is a testament that it was a cold November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Kinda interesting how the Euro ensembles have spread out and shifted the coldest anomalies farther west, in the past couple of days. Here's the 5-10 day mean 850 anomalies. Pretty cold look though for a good part of CONUS real estate. Dreaming a little, but I think we'd like that look in winter for snowfall purposes...with some modifications, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 every one ready for the shortest LES season on record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Superior and MI are very close to seasonal norms, or where they were at this point last year. I doubt we have the sustained cold we did last Winter. Most seasonal 'casts predict normal LE this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Alek's trying reverse psychology. But yeah, going to be pretty tough to match 2013-14's DJFM temps in the Lakes/Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Alek's trying reverse psychology. But yeah, going to be pretty tough to match 2013-14's DJFM temps in the Lakes/Midwest. DJFM 2013-14 temp ranks.png we're still riding the same train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 we're still riding the same train I suppose...but, we shall see. Here's how we did it off the bat last November and December. The rest was history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I suppose...but, we shall see. Here's how we did it off the bat last November and December. The rest was history. Interesting. I had forgotten (until this post) that last December we were actually above normal temps in the midst of what ended up being a severe winter wall to wall...overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Interesting. I had forgotten (until this post) that last December we were actually above normal temps in the midst of what ended up being a severe winter wall to wall...overall. outside LES regions, being in the deeper blues in the winter months usually is not the prime area to be for snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 outside LES regions, being in the deeper blues in the winter months usually is not the prime area to be for snowy. And sometimes not. Some "dark blue" Januaries that were pretty good for Columbus. 25.4" for Columbus 18.1" for Columbus 34.4" for Columbus 17.3" for Columbus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 As Stebo pointed out quite well it did translate to the surface for November. We live in an area heavily impacted by the Great Lake Temps. In November the GLs are still in the 40s/50s. Plus the soil (ground) is not solidly frozen in November nor are the local inland lakes. These 2 factors play a significant role in affecting MI surface temps. Throughout winter we see times when areas to our south in IN and OH have colder overnight lows when we have winds off the lakes. While yes the snow cover would help the ground temp some but the lake influence is there until the Great Lakes are frozen or have significantly ice covered. In fact last year we were ice-skating in early December IMBY which is a testament that it was a cold November My point was it didn't translate into EXTREME cold temperatures at the surface, despite the extremely cold 850mb temps. So essentially, as cold as those temps were and as impressive as the synoptic setup aloft was, it still didn't translate into anything record-breaking or anomalous for us on the ground. It was all more bark than bite. Here are the record lows for those same dates at DTW (I don't have the record minimum highs): Nov. 23: Record Low of 8*F (set in 1880) Nov. 24: Record Low of 7*F (set in 1950) Nov. 25: Record Low of 10*F (set in 1950) Nov. 27: Record Low of 9*F (set in 1930) Nov. 28: Record Low of 8*F (set in 1955) The fact that some of the smaller lakes were frozen by early December probably had more to do with the fact that it was consistently colder than normal, instead of it being record-breaking cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 High ratio fluff can pile up fast over the course of a month or so...the clipper train was active last winter, spring, over the summer, and continues into this fall (and looks to continue for the near future so far). Clipper love can spread out across differing latitudes during different systems...The lack of blockbuster gulf drenched storms may prove to be boring at times as far as tracking goes, but it wouldn't shock me if this continues for the lakes... Numerous dialogues are the same via the weather offices compared to last year...long range torch signals become muted as time draws nearer to said time period; hybrid (sometimes strong) clippers rolling in one after another (75% of these are typically "moisture starved"...but that doesn't mean as much when temps are in the teens or lower as the ratios boost totals); shots of cool air with reinforcing blows of cold air; spread the wealth LE set ups for west and east sides of lakes become favorable with the path these clippers take and HP positioning; an occasional occluded ULL I am not saying a complete carbon copy of last year is on the way...But I really don't see too much that is different in terms of the pattern hemispherically... all fwiw and imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 High ratio fluff can pile up fast over the course of a month or so...the clipper train was active last winter, spring, over the summer, and continues into this fall (and looks to continue for the near future so far). Clipper love can spread out across differing latitudes during different systems...The lack of blockbuster gulf drenched storms may prove to be boring at times as far as tracking goes, but it wouldn't shock me if this continues for the lakes... Numerous dialogues are the same via the weather offices compared to last year...long range torch signals become muted as time draws nearer to said time period; hybrid (sometimes strong) clippers rolling in one after another (75% of these are typically "moisture starved"...but that doesn't mean as much when temps are in the teens or lower as the ratios boost totals); shots of cool air with reinforcing blows of cold air; spread the wealth LE set ups for west and east sides of lakes become favorable with the path these clippers take and HP positioning; an occasional occluded ULL I am not saying a complete carbon copy of last year is on the way...But I really don't see too much that is different in terms of the pattern hemispherically... all fwiw and imo I like the new alias...JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 every one ready for the shortest LES season on record? Jonger's thoughts regarding the end of LES season by mid December: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Superior and MI are very close to seasonal norms, or where they were at this point last year. I doubt we have the sustained cold we did last Winter. Most seasonal 'casts predict normal LE this year. avgtemps-m-5-yr.gif avgtemps-s-5-yr.gif I am surprised the Lakes have made it to near average temps for this time of year with the cold summer we had and extremely cold winter last year w/ record ice buildup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 My point was it didn't translate into EXTREME cold temperatures at the surface, despite the extremely cold 850mb temps. So essentially, as cold as those temps were and as impressive as the synoptic setup aloft was, it still didn't translate into anything record-breaking or anomalous for us on the ground. It was all more bark than bite. Here are the record lows for those same dates at DTW (I don't have the record minimum highs): Nov. 23: Record Low of 8*F (set in 1880) Nov. 24: Record Low of 7*F (set in 1950) Nov. 25: Record Low of 10*F (set in 1950) Nov. 27: Record Low of 9*F (set in 1930) Nov. 28: Record Low of 8*F (set in 1955) The fact that some of the smaller lakes were frozen by early December probably had more to do with the fact that it was consistently colder than normal, instead of it being record-breaking cold... I don't recall November 2013 being all that extreme but rather just a decent below normal month. Those of use out in the rural areas had a few morning in November 2013 of 0-10F. The White Lake office had 6F, 11F and 11F plus a few other teens. Where I live is typically a couple degrees colder than White Lake. I don't recall seeing an extreme event last November so I am not surprised by the results of no records broken. Being most of those records are in the 1950s and earlier the urbanization of Wayne county likely will lead to these records being pretty much safe. Not that they cannot be broken and some day an extreme event will break some of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I am surprised the Lakes have made it to near average temps for this time of year with the cold summer we had and extremely cold winter last year w/ record ice buildup. I am not too surprised. I found in my 5 years at in the Keweenaw that Lake Superior temps ended up being pretty close each year as we got into November. They would be on warmer side by the end of November if November (some of October too) was much above normal. They currently are on the colder side of normal and the coming cold will keep them colder than normal for sure. Unless we have a big relaxing pattern in December they will begin to freeze early this year. It will interesting to see how they do this winter. If they get to or exceed the ice cover of last year it be interesting to see the lake levels next year. We have recovered so nicely in that department this year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I am not too surprised. I found in my 5 years at in the Keweenaw that Lake Superior temps ended up being pretty close each year as we got into November. They would be on warmer side by the end of November if November (some of October too) was much above normal. They currently are on the colder side of normal and the coming cold will keep them colder than normal for sure. Unless we have a big relaxing pattern in December they will begin to freeze early this year. It will interesting to see how they do this winter. If they get to or exceed the ice cover of last year it be interesting to see the lake levels next year. We have recovered so nicely in that department this year!! for Superior to freeze up much beyond the bays and coastline, it will have to be a pretty sustained cold start to the Winter like last year....otherwise, the heart of the lake should remain open I think. with the cold Nov it looks like we are going to have, MI will likely begin to ice up early/mid Dec in the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 for Superior to freeze up much beyond the bays and coastline, it will have to be a pretty sustained cold start to the Winter like last year....otherwise, the heart of the lake should remain open I think. with the cold Nov it looks like we are going to have, MI will likely begin to ice up early/mid Dec in the north. If we get cold similar to last year that is sustaining I don't doubt superior will freeze, it did this year. Northern Lake Mich will freeze hopefully later into January for my case. Its a shame it has to freeze I bet Gaylord loses 30+ inches a year because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I like the new alias...JB. I'm not selling anything....but if you're in a buying mood I'll make you a deal you can't refuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.