Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Yep, that high ratio fluff event. The way that evolved has gotta be one of the weirdest ways to get a big snow. Still one of my favorites, snowed all day long and picked up 6" in 3hrs during the height of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I have read some of the Weather Bell stuff, and JB as well. I don't put a whole lot of stock in either one, standing on their own. In other words, I don't take either one as the final word on how winter is going to be, but there is information to be drawn from each one, and then put in the hopper with the other stuff I read on here, from Skilling and from the NWS, and then from there I derive an idea of what the upcoming winter is going to be like. I hang out here because there is much to learn, and when it comes to model analysis, quite a few of members here are spot on quite often, and that helps to understand things quite a bit. That being said, I grow awfully tired as of late, with what appears to be a desire in the media to label any kind of weather activity as "extreme", when it appears to be nothing more than run of the mill in some cases. Now, I am not calling into question anyone's competence, but rather calling into question what may be an over-use of hyperbole when describing weather events. This! Honestly, every winter when there's a winter storm it's the headline on the news up here with the reporters making it sound like such hardship has never occurred before and how this is all somehow new. Plus, you always get reporters asking random people on the street what they think of the stormy weather and you'll get the same generic responses every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Maybe Geos could help but was 2009 the Xmas with the big LE snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 3, 2014 Author Share Posted December 3, 2014 Maybe Geos could help but was 2009 the Xmas with the big LE snows? That was 12/25-26/2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 There were a few decent clipper systems in the early part of December that impacted the western and southern portions of the subforum, but that was the gist of it (all of the big storms went OTS after impacting the deep south or only impacted portions of the east coast) There was also that blizzard in early December that gave Madison close to 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 3, 2014 Author Share Posted December 3, 2014 There was also that blizzard in early December that gave Madison close to 20" Correct... 12/8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Is it to far out to predict the general trends around xmas? I love snow on the ground from Dec. 20th into the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 18Z GFS took its foot off our necks.... just a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Is it to far out to predict the general trends around xmas? I love snow on the ground from Dec. 20th into the new year. No respectable met would try and pin down Christmas this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 No respectable met would try and pin down Christmas this early. Yeah I know, was just looking for general temperature trends around that time frame. Seems like most are saying the warmth is around most of the month. I was planning on possibly getting a cabin up in the hills to go skiing/boarding for a few days the last week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Yeah I know, was just looking for general temperature trends around that time frame. Seems like most are saying the warmth is around most of the month. I was planning on possibly getting a cabin up in the hills to go skiing/boarding for a few days the last week of December. That's still not out of the question... I might be heading up to Hearst, Ontario that same week. Look where that is for reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Yeah I know, was just looking for general temperature trends around that time frame. Seems like most are saying the warmth is around most of the month. I was planning on possibly getting a cabin up in the hills to go skiing/boarding for a few days the last week of December. Well Mike V also posted this (Euro Week 4) and mentioned that he's liking the pattern for an Eastern US snowstorm around Christmas. https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/539903722584047616 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I remember that high ratio fluff event on 12/26/09 pretty well. High totals were really localized in the western suburbs if I remember right. Ended up with 5.5" from that system. Yeah, 19.1" here in December of 2009 then dropped to 9.2" in January, only to rise to 29.0" in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 That was 12/25-26/2010. Thank you--time flies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 That's still not out of the question... I might be heading up to Hearst, Ontario that same week. Look where that is for reference. Wow, that is far up north! I'm not worried about snow on the ground as its at a ski resort that makes it. But would be nice to get some fresh powder and temps in the upper 20s the last week of Dec. Well Mike V also posted this (Euro Week 4) and mentioned that he's liking the pattern for an Eastern US snowstorm around Christmas. https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/539903722584047616 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 WPC... dat jet almost go time... The pattern changing in earnest....are they referring to the coming warm spell or after it? The first few weeks of Dec are going to be so eerily quiet that something might give in a big way (though that can be a very good or not so good thing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The pattern changing in earnest....are they referring to the coming warm spell or after it? The first few weeks of Dec are going to be so eerily quiet that something might give in a big way (though that can be a very good or not so good thing). I assume they are referring to the "warm" spell...and I am leaning towards your thoughts of something giving in a big way...we have seen these quiet spells of "top notch"/quiet days for awhile now the last year...clearly climo is different now than in the summer...but I think mid month brings a late October scenario (Halloween weekend comes to mind). In reality, such a scenario dooms my banter thread thoughts of no more than 3 days above climo average the first 2 weeks of December (as the last few days of the first 2 weeks could blow super torch in prep for the other shoe to drop mid month)...but certain similarities are becoming evident to my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I assume they are referring to the "warm" spell...and I am leaning towards your thoughts of something giving in a big way...we have seen these quiet spells of "top notch"/quiet days for awhile now the last year...clearly climo is different now than in the summer...but I think mid month brings a late October scenario (Halloween weekend comes to mind). In reality, such a scenario dooms my banter thread thoughts of no more than 3 days above climo average the first 2 weeks of December (as the last few days of the first 2 weeks could blow super torch in prep for the other shoe to drop mid month)...but certain similarities are becoming evident to my eyes I wonder if the warm spell gets a bit more muted as time draws near, originally this week was looking pretty mild, but it really won't get back to average until Friday or Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 LAF was in a good spot for the clippers then. There was the Christmas cutter that didn't do much initially but then produced a lot of snow west of Lake Michigan after it occluded. Yep.. Dropped a foot here and across most of the GRR area. I think this is the same December system? I know one of those delivered the goods here via early occlusion/lake enhancement? Maybe Geos could help but was 2009 the Xmas with the big LE snows? Other side of the lake.. Besides that the system that hit DC/Philly around the 9th of Feb was the other highlight here as this also dropped a foot here. Reasons why i would take this winter in a heart beat over 10-11 again. Ofcourse alot of it involved luck as you wont find any other case of a storm dropping a foot here and then a foot+ in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I wonder if the warm spell gets a bit more muted as time draws near, originally this week was looking pretty mild, but it really won't get back to average until Friday or Saturday. The full on pacific airmass might be a bit to overcome if one is looking for complete cold over the next week and a half ...but the 2 to 3 week long zonal flow that had been depicted is most likely gonna fail imo...too much action in the northern pacific and the pac jet kickin' into high gear for it to remain flat out zonal...the models hedged their bets hard on the pac jet firehose....we'll see how they score in a few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 IDK guys, I think you punt this one until January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 IDK guys, I think you punt this one until January Pretty sure I heard crickets chirping while looking at some of the latest guidance lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 yeah, every morning i click around e wall and see the same endless stretch of nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I assume they are referring to the "warm" spell...and I am leaning towards your thoughts of something giving in a big way...we have seen these quiet spells of "top notch"/quiet days for awhile now the last year...clearly climo is different now than in the summer...but I think mid month brings a late October scenario (Halloween weekend comes to mind). In reality, such a scenario dooms my banter thread thoughts of no more than 3 days above climo average the first 2 weeks of December (as the last few days of the first 2 weeks could blow super torch in prep for the other shoe to drop mid month)...but certain similarities are becoming evident to my eyes Very reasonable thoughts. I dont think anyone should expect much thru mid-December, and at that point, lets see where we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 yeah, regardless of what happens with temps...it still looks fairly boring for the next week. On the bright side....at least it's not brutal cold and boring (in terms of having little ones to get ready for school every morning and running around doing holiday shopping and winterizing equipment for the company etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Seems tense across the forums. Early winter tease has raised hopes for cold mongers. Still plenty of calls and model support for a cold and maybe stormy second half of December (at least for general eastern troughing). Just need to get past this mind-month zonal flow and patiently wait for the pattern to shake up. Moderate El Niño scenario with the AO creeping towards negative territory just in time to make or break a lot of forecasts. Might be a good time to take a break from the models and check in a week from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Seems tense across the forums. Early winter tease has raised hopes for cold mongers. Still plenty of calls and model support for a cold and maybe stormy second half of December (at least for general eastern troughing). Just need to get past this mind-month zonal flow and patiently wait for the pattern to shake up. Moderate El Niño scenario with the AO creeping towards negative territory just in time to make or break a lot of forecasts. Might be a good time to take a break from the models and check in a week from now. This website lives and dies by winter weather. If there was a Nielsen rating system for Amwx... Winter 2013-2014 probably pulled a 40 share, while summer is about a 2 share. Think of it as the Superbowl versus a 3:00am episode of "Taxi" on Nick at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 literally fell asleep while looping the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 This website lives and dies by winter weather. If there was a Nielsen rating system for Amwx... Winter 2013-2014 probably pulled a 40 share, while summer is about a 2 share. Think of it as the Superbowl versus a 3:00am episode of "Taxi" on Nick at night. Winter is the biggest attraction but you're exaggerating with this...there's a good amount of activity in non-winter months, particularly when there's something significant to track. I think the difference was more dramatic in the past...like in the WWBB days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Punt until Christmas. IDK guys, I think you punt this one until January I'm still liking my call. You want to punt it out of the end zone, I'm thinking more like downing it inside the 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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