sokolow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 sounds suicide inducingly awfulBracing is the word you're looking for. Colder, frozen, and dry is IMO better than temps slightly above freezing, rain, and mud for spending any amount of time outside whatsoeverUnless "outside" = a covered porch w/ woodburning stove, drinking scotch and watching the fog & mist roll through I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 Skilling doin' work on FB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 weenies and deniers are the worst, nice to see Tom still has something in the tank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 bonus lol @ Ed Levernier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 You disappoint me. Easy. Seeing how he does for this month and if he's wrong I'll shut up. yeah...I haven't read or listened to a JB forecast since it became for sale...but those that forecast for the masses have to do this to an extent. Even the WPC forecasts frequently say that despite leaning towards a different solution in their longer range, they don't change much for continuality sake. I know it's kind of apples and oranges...but that's my take on it...either way, I tend not to trust his forecasts too much when people post them for the reason you outlined...what is the derivative...but that's not a shot on his accuracy, because I don't know what his results have shone anyways I'll give JB this. He did well last winter, had the right call for this past summer and nailed November. I do agree with him when he says that we shouldn't put too much faith in computer models. Unfortunately, I suspect he'll bust on this December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 JB will never miss a cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 bonus lol @ Ed Levernier This. JB will never miss a cold pattern. Was he calling for cold in 2011-12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 JB will never miss a cold pattern.Agreed. I only see his twitter quips these days- though he did call for a pattern relaxation in early Dec. back in mid November. Time will tell. Also, you would think his constant calls for cold in the face of warmth would hurt him with his energy clientele. I'm thinking those boys interests go beyond the normal weenie interests.Of further note; doesn't that known climatologist Jim Ramsey manage skillings Facebook page, and fetch his coffee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 This. Was he calling for cold in 2011-12? He was. Cold that never materialized. A bad first winter forecast for the Weatherbell company. They did better the subsequent two years though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 You made that sound really nice. You should consider writing real estate descriptions ;-)I've a beautiful seaside villa to sell you in France, your choice of St. Pierre et Miquelon or Port aux Français Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I've a beautiful seaside villa to sell you in France, your choice of St. Pierre et Miquelon or Port aux Français haha not to get off topic but I still have no idea how St.Pierre et Miquelon just hasn't given up and joined Canada. My family has visited and said it was surreal to feel like your in Europe but only 30km off the coast of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Agree. It was -15 here last night and I stood in the drive for 30 min watching chimney smoke, star gazing, and enjoying the dead silence of a Winter night. 38 and rain just doesn't cut it for me, no matter how many dogs I had to walk. It wouldn't be me... sounds suicide inducingly awful ^^^This... ...but to each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 25-32 all winter... Only preferred when we're in an active synoptic pattern. Otherwise, bring on the "torches" (like right now)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Mike V from WSI tweeted this a bit ago: https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/status/539907856712364033 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I have read some of the Weather Bell stuff, and JB as well. I don't put a whole lot of stock in either one, standing on their own. In other words, I don't take either one as the final word on how winter is going to be, but there is information to be drawn from each one, and then put in the hopper with the other stuff I read on here, from Skilling and from the NWS, and then from there I derive an idea of what the upcoming winter is going to be like. I hang out here because there is much to learn, and when it comes to model analysis, quite a few of members here are spot on quite often, and that helps to understand things quite a bit. That being said, I grow awfully tired as of late, with what appears to be a desire in the media to label any kind of weather activity as "extreme", when it appears to be nothing more than run of the mill in some cases. Now, I am not calling into question anyone's competence, but rather calling into question what may be an over-use of hyperbole when describing weather events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Mike V from WSI tweeted this a bit ago: https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/status/539907856712364033 What would be the impact of a negative AO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 What would be the impact of a negative AO? For a somewhat extreme example, see December 2009 and January 2010... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Only preferred when we're in an active synoptic pattern. Otherwise, bring on the "torches" (like right now)... Whatever keeps the grass covered.I guess that's the difference between winter window watchers and winter sports enthusiasts. If I didn't play in the snow, I'd probably not give two craps how we got our snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 It wouldn't be me... ^^^This... ...but to each their own. there was very little wind and it wasn't like I was dressed in shorts and a t, shivering. I'm an outdoors person and have adapted to enjoying being outside in all the seasons, not just what is comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 This. Was he calling for cold in 2011-12? Lately the pattern has been predictable, media outlets just call for repeats of what happened the previous season. We had Morch 2012 and people were still calling for Morch this year, it was about -9 locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 What would be the impact of a negative AO? Generally speaking, it increases the chances of cold weather in the CONUS. It's not the only way to get cold though, and there are exceptions to the -AO/cold US rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 That being said, I grow awfully tired as of late, with what appears to be a desire in the media to label any kind of weather activity as "extreme", when it appears to be nothing more than run of the mill in some cases. Now, I am not calling into question anyone's competence, but rather calling into question what may be an over-use of hyperbole when describing weather events. "Run of the mill" doesn't make for good news stories... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 He was. Cold that never materialized. A bad first winter forecast for the Weatherbell company. They did better the subsequent two years though. Well obviously because it was colder, this is the "predict all the time, must be right some of the time" venture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 2009-10 was an extreme example of the AO influence as Powerball pointed out. That winter could probably be classified as a strong Nino, which usually tilts the odds in favor of warmth, and it resulted in this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 ORD had a 21" December in 2009 but January 2010 was around 9" I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 ORD had a 21" December in 2009 but January 2010 was around 9" I believe. There were a few decent clipper systems in the early part of December that impacted the western and southern portions of the subforum, but that was the gist of it (all of the big storms went OTS after impacting the deep south or only impacted portions of the east coast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 There were a few decent clipper systems in the early part of December that impacted the western and southern portions of the subforum, but that was the gist of it (all of the big storms went OTS after impacting the deep south or only impacted portions of the east coast) Wasn't there a big western lakes cutter before Xmas? Then I got 12.2" on 12/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 There were a few decent clipper systems in the early part of December that impacted the western and southern portions of the subforum, but that was the gist of it (all of the big storms went OTS after impacting the deep south or only impacted portions of the east coast) LAF was in a good spot for the clippers then. There was the Christmas cutter that didn't do much initially but then produced a lot of snow west of Lake Michigan after it occluded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Wasn't there a big western lakes cutter before Xmas? Then I got 12.2" on 12/26 Yep, that high ratio fluff event. The way that evolved has gotta be one of the weirdest ways to get a big snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Wasn't there a big western lakes cutter before Xmas? Then I got 12.2" on 12/26 Oh yes, that odd wrap-around/fluffy snowstorm for Northern Illinois. Other than that though, it was mostly an Upper Midwest and Central Plains snowstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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