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Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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And the forecast for this first week of December will average slightly below normal IMBY.

 

 

Funny thing with all this torch talk.  My 850s are not expected to go above 0C for the next 120 Hours according to the 12Z GFS and Parallel 12Z GFS/ 84 hours on the 12Z NAM.  Right now the first 6 days of December look to average slightly below normal IMBY.  IMO temps right now are not a torch as previously modeled last week for this time frame. 

 

Same for here, seems as though the projected "torch" has been pushed back into the second week of December. Many on the board and the models were calling for warmth through the first week of Dec, but the forecast IMBY this week is average to slightly below normal.

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Perhaps another El Nino year?

I found this doing a quick google search.

"Climate historians, such as William Quinn, are piecing together from historical documents (ships' logbooks, explorers’ journals, missionaries’ diaries, port-authority records, naval reports as well as historical accounts of events in areas known to be affected by El Nino/La Nina from across the world) dates when likely past El Nino events occurred. Other researchers are also using other methods based on geological, archaeological field-work etc."

One of the years he had listed was 1830 by itself and then 1832-3. Take it for what it is.

The history of that winter in my part of the Illinois has always been interesting to me. Seems to be the reason southern Illinois was called Little Egypt and the high water mark for bad winters.

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 Hagupit being handled differently with today's 12Z suite ... ECMWF says continue west... GFS brings it north... It will be interesting to see how that unfolds.....

 

 

This?

abpwsair.jpg

 

Regardless of what it does we also have this which says do not get use to any kind of warm up and beware of models in the mid/long range..

combphase_noCFSfull.gif

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Since early-mid 1800's winters were mentioned recently, I did find this data for Chicago recently on NCDC. Write up from the Chicago NWS at the end, from back in 1925, tells you buyer beware...but kinda cool to have something out there that goes that far back.  

 

 

 

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Since early-mid 1800's winters were mentioned recently, I did find this data for Chicago recently on NCDC. Write up from the Chicago NWS at the end, from back in 1925, tells you buyer beware...but kinda cool to have something out there that goes that far back.  

 

attachicon.gifchicago 1830-1870 temps.png

 

attachicon.gifchicago 1843-1870 precip.png

 

attachicon.gifchicago weather history.png

This is awesome. How did you find it? I wonder if anything like that exists for Detroit.

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That's a heck of a flip from December 1845 to January 1846 if accurate.  Looks like the December mean was 23 degrees (I think...or it could be 28?) and January was 39, lol.

 

22˚ in Dec 1849 to 36˚ in Jan 1850 ain't too shabby either. Matter of fact, looks like Dec was the only good month that winter.

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And going the other way, how about December 1833 to January 1834.

 

And then February 1834 went back to a torch.

 

Kinda fun to look at. :D

 

Anyways, sketchy data or not, I don't see the before mentioned 1855-56 December warmth in there for Chicago. Looks like it was balls cold from Nov straight through March.

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This?

 

 

Regardless of what it does we also have this which says do not get use to any kind of warm up and beware of models in the mid/long range..

 

 

yes, that "little" guy...it ends up having impacts on trough placements over the pacific and the consolidated screaming pac jet models are showing in the coming days...

 

and yes...I will continue to be extremely wary of mid/long range until further notice....nice nugget

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yes, that "little" guy...it ends up having impacts on trough placements over the pacific and the consolidated screaming pac jet models are showing in the coming days...

 

and yes...I will continue to be extremely wary of mid/long range until further notice....nice nugget

 

The ole re curving Typhoon. Better believe my fingers are crossed.. That is what really helped to seal the deal last winter when we had a re curve in late Nov/Early Dec. Say hello to a -epo.

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I'm loving the talk of winters in the 1800's here! I wonder if people taking observations at the time realized we'd be talking about them 150-200 years later?

 

As alluded to above, the GFS ensembles especially have been insistent on the MJO becoming more favorable in 10-14 days for cold in the central/eastern US. The Euro ensembles don't show it as strongly, but show it becoming "less unfavorable" in that same timeframe. If that typhoon can recurve quicker than the models currently suggest it may help set everything in motion (kind of like we saw in November with Nuri)...the GFS shows a shortwave moving off of the east Asian coast later this week, so it's not impossible.

 

As has also been discussed, mild Decembers (especially the first half of the month) seem to be common occurrences in El Ninos, and even in big SAI years it tends to take until closer to January to get good blocking to develop, so it seems like everything is right on schedule. If the MJO comes out of the Indian Ocean as expected within a week or so, I think we could be on track for a flip during the third week of the month, even if the long range GFS still looks wretched at the end of the run.

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WPC...

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
155 AM EST TUE DEC 02 2014

...MODEL PREFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME...WITH THE 1/12Z
ECENS-GEFS AND NAEFS MAINTAINING A STEADY STREAM OF WESTERLIES
ALONG 40N LATITUDE FROM COAST TO COAST...AND A RATHER FAST-MOVING
BUT LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC CONTINUES TO PROJECT AN ACTIVE
SERIES OF CYCLONE MIGRATIONS FROM 170W TO 130W...AND WHAT IS
BECOMING MORE EVIDENT...IS THE LATITUDE FOR THE WAVE TRAIN
MIGRATION. TO ME---IT'S DISPLACED SOUTH OF A 'TYPICAL' LATE-AUTUMN
LATITUDE---CLOSER TO 40N-42N THAN 47N-48N ALONG 140W LONGITUDE. IF
THE ECENS MEAN IS ANY INDICATION OF WHAT CAN BE EXPECTED...ITS
1/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUN AND 250MB JET FORECAST SHOULD BE NOTED
FROM THE SOUTH COAST OF JAPAN TO 40N 140W BY THE END OF DAY 7. 

A SECOND FEATURE OF THE PACIFIC---IS THE EARLY EMERGENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET...AND ACTIVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SO EARLY IN THE
LOW-SUN HALF OF THE YEAR. THIS IS USUALLY MORE A LATE JANUARY
THROUGH FEBRUARY OBSERVANCE. AND WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING NOTABLE INCREASES IN THE PACIFIC BRANCH OF A JET NEAR
25N...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO HAWAI'I NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO BY THE END OF DAY 7...AM THINKING THIS MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD IS TRYING TO TELL US SOMETHING---AND PERHAPS THE
PATTERN IS CHANGING IN EARNEST...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM EJECTION OF
THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SETTING THINGS INTO MOTION.

 

dat jet

 

almost go time...

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I wouldn't mind some STJ involvement if it brings even just a mini big dog....but I think more of a sudo-pineapple situation unfolds into the pac NW and dumps troughs down our way with "juicier than normal" clippers....which also mutes the warmth portrayed by medium/long range.

 

it looks like the Asian pac jet gets even further solidified/strengthened later in last nights model runs as well...but Hagupit could play a role in how that unfolds

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