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Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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We have a strong GOA system within the 7 day range along with an east asia trough connection.  The models aren't going to be doing so well for the second week of December.

 

Yup, just depends on how long it sticks around. Winter will be MIA until that thing blows through.

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Models look like crap through the 15th...Chances of a below normal December look slim.

 

Might be one of those winters that doesn't lock in before the solstice. Bummer.

Have you been reading the main forum? There is lots of talk how this is fitting right in with projections for a cold winter that starts with a mild first half of December. Of course I want snow now too, but think of years like 2005-06...tons of snow and cold from Thanksgiving to Christmas then the winter from hell. Lets get this crap out of the way now.

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:lol: well I was being sort of tongue in cheek but there is some detail (not so much every day though) to documentations of what the weather was like (Early American Winters by David Ludlum) and someone was talking about 1855-56.

That was me. That winter is well documented in volume 2 of Early American winters. It's mentioned in the chapters on Midwest winters, the chapter on Northeast winters and also on the chapter dealing with observations at Fort Snelling in Minnesota (essentially today's Minneapolis). Ludlum footnoted his stats too.

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JB and WxBell are going to bust pretty hard with their December forecast. But it is what it is. Nino Decembers are typically pretty hostile for sustained cold/snow in the Midwest...barring a few examples. Doesn't help when the modeled pattern right now on all of the ensemble guidance, through mid-month, looks like we're in a strong Nino. I mean we're not technically, but it has the look. Patience is suggested for the time being. And it might be a good time to enjoy other hobbies. :)

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JB and WxBell are going to bust pretty hard with their December forecast. But it is what it is. Nino Decembers are typically pretty hostile for sustained cold/snow in the Midwest...barring a few examples. Doesn't help when the modeled pattern right now on all of the ensemble guidance, through mid-month, looks like we're in a strong Nino. I mean we're not technically, but it has the look. Patience is suggested for the time being. And it might be a good time to enjoy other hobbies. :)

 

 

Not sure what WxBell is going with for December but to me, this is about what happens in the Dec 1-15 period as far as where the month ends up.  If the first 15 days are an obscene torch in the means, then it's most likely not going to matter what happens the rest of the month.  However, if the first 15 days are just kinda mild and the pattern change doesn't get delayed, then it would be possible that the month doesn't end up so bad.

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Not sure what WxBell is going with for December but to me, this is about what happens in the Dec 1-15 period as far as where the month ends up. If the first 15 days are an obscene torch in the means, then it's most likely not going to matter what happens the rest of the month. However, if the first 15 days are just kinda mild and the pattern change doesn't get delayed, then it would be possible that the month doesn't end up so bad.

good point. A mild first half of December has been discussed for a while now so it shouldn't be a surprise. Let the cold return by or before Christmas and all will be fine. It does suck in the meantime tho
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Funny thing with all this torch talk.  My 850s are not expected to go above 0C for the next 120 Hours according to the 12Z GFS and Parallel 12Z GFS/ 84 hours on the 12Z NAM.  Right now the first 6 days of December look to average slightly below normal IMBY.  IMO temps right now are not a torch as previously modeled last week for this time frame. 

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Not sure what WxBell is going with for December but to me, this is about what happens in the Dec 1-15 period as far as where the month ends up.  If the first 15 days are an obscene torch in the means, then it's most likely not going to matter what happens the rest of the month.  However, if the first 15 days are just kinda mild and the pattern change doesn't get delayed, then it would be possible that the month doesn't end up so bad.

 

-3 for us. But yeah, the first half numbers for Indy are kinda interesting. We'll see. Nothing is ever set in stone in the extended, but I can't say I'm encouraged right now.

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I didn't even know enough weather data existed back then to consider it an analog... :ph34r:

Here is the data for downtown Toronto for that winter. Data goes back to 1839 in Toronto. Temperatures are in degrees Celsius.

 

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=5051&dlyRange=1840-03-01%7C2013-12-10&cmdB1=Go&Year=1855&Month=12&Day=30

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Funny thing with all this torch talk.  My 850s are not expected to go above 0C for the next 120 Hours according to the 12Z GFS and Parallel 12Z GFS/ 84 hours on the 12Z NAM.  Right now the first 6 days of December look to average slightly below normal IMBY.  IMO temps right now are not a torch as previously modeled last week for this time frame. 

 

Not a torch, but 850mb temperatures are still climatologically around -4 to -5C for you during the first couple weeks of December.

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Just so long as the cold returns by Christmas.  Our first week of December has somewhat milder temps in store.  Today is supposed to be in the mid 20's, but by Saturday we are in the low 40's with pretty much all week being above freezing, and that extends to the first 10 days. 

 

Looks boring, but at least I will be able to do the holiday shopping and not worry about the weather, and probably even get out to get some photos as well. 

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Here is the data for downtown Toronto for that winter. Data goes back to 1839 in Toronto. Temperatures are in degrees Celsius.

 

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=5051&dlyRange=1840-03-01%7C2013-12-10&cmdB1=Go&Year=1855&Month=12&Day=30

 

November didn't look that cold IMO in 1855.... Give it time the pattern looks to be warm coming up, but the king is cold this year. Could this be our January thaw  ?? Winter did start early..

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