Jonger Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Models look like crap through the 15th...Chances of a below normal December look slim. Might be one of those winters that doesn't lock in before the solstice. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 We have a strong GOA system within the 7 day range along with an east asia trough connection. The models aren't going to be doing so well for the second week of December. Yup, just depends on how long it sticks around. Winter will be MIA until that thing blows through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Sounds like 1855-56 is an analog. Mild Dec until the Solstace then a frigidly cold winter right through March. I didn't even know enough weather data existed back then to consider it an analog... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I didn't even know enough weather data existed back then to consider it an analog... I hear Abe Lincoln was a fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 It has been noted by at least one source that 1855-6 was a Niño fwiw. Exactly how that was determined is not known but perhaps temp.'s just off South America just south of the equator were warmer than normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I hear Abe Lincoln was a fan. Snow was neck deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Models look like crap through the 15th...Chances of a below normal December look slim. Might be one of those winters that doesn't lock in before the solstice. Bummer. Have you been reading the main forum? There is lots of talk how this is fitting right in with projections for a cold winter that starts with a mild first half of December. Of course I want snow now too, but think of years like 2005-06...tons of snow and cold from Thanksgiving to Christmas then the winter from hell. Lets get this crap out of the way now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I didn't even know enough weather data existed back then to consider it an analog... well I was being sort of tongue in cheek but there is some detail (not so much every day though) to documentations of what the weather was like (Early American Winters by David Ludlum) and someone was talking about 1855-56. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Snow was neck deep. lol Chad has some really old stuff on his blog but after a quick search, I couldn't really find anything about the winter of 1855-56. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 FWIW, it was noted in the New England forum that Judah Cohen's work did show a noted warm bias in the first half of Dec before eastern CONUS turned consistently cold. I'll pass on the west-based -NAO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 well I was being sort of tongue in cheek but there is some detail (not so much every day though) to documentations of what the weather was like (Early American Winters by David Ludlum) and someone was talking about 1855-56. That was me. That winter is well documented in volume 2 of Early American winters. It's mentioned in the chapters on Midwest winters, the chapter on Northeast winters and also on the chapter dealing with observations at Fort Snelling in Minnesota (essentially today's Minneapolis). Ludlum footnoted his stats too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Massive geese migrations ongoing over the weekend through North central and NW IL.... geese>models... chilly on the way...got chips? things getting cleaned up in the pac.... almost go time imo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 the gfs loop i just saw might have been the lamest model run in years, so many zzzzzzzz for nearly the entire country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 let the bad times roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 let the bad times roll JB hinting that his famed "Cahir's Connection" is starting to show up on model runs in the medium to long range. He also pointed out this morning how the CFS had forecasted a blowtorch November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 lol^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 JB and WxBell are going to bust pretty hard with their December forecast. But it is what it is. Nino Decembers are typically pretty hostile for sustained cold/snow in the Midwest...barring a few examples. Doesn't help when the modeled pattern right now on all of the ensemble guidance, through mid-month, looks like we're in a strong Nino. I mean we're not technically, but it has the look. Patience is suggested for the time being. And it might be a good time to enjoy other hobbies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 The extended, plain and simple, is dog doo-doo. Below, the 6z GEFS mean in the 10-15 day period. 0z Euro ensembles agree. Maps courtesy of WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 JB and WxBell are going to bust pretty hard with their December forecast. But it is what it is. Nino Decembers are typically pretty hostile for sustained cold/snow in the Midwest...barring a few examples. Doesn't help when the modeled pattern right now on all of the ensemble guidance, through mid-month, looks like we're in a strong Nino. I mean we're not technically, but it has the look. Patience is suggested for the time being. And it might be a good time to enjoy other hobbies. Not sure what WxBell is going with for December but to me, this is about what happens in the Dec 1-15 period as far as where the month ends up. If the first 15 days are an obscene torch in the means, then it's most likely not going to matter what happens the rest of the month. However, if the first 15 days are just kinda mild and the pattern change doesn't get delayed, then it would be possible that the month doesn't end up so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 modeled torch will get muted in time...but that doesn't change the fact that things look pretty lame/tame over the next 7 to 10 days in terms of "action"...looks like a great time to get holiday shopping done before the hammer drops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Not sure what WxBell is going with for December but to me, this is about what happens in the Dec 1-15 period as far as where the month ends up. If the first 15 days are an obscene torch in the means, then it's most likely not going to matter what happens the rest of the month. However, if the first 15 days are just kinda mild and the pattern change doesn't get delayed, then it would be possible that the month doesn't end up so bad.good point. A mild first half of December has been discussed for a while now so it shouldn't be a surprise. Let the cold return by or before Christmas and all will be fine. It does suck in the meantime tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Last time LAF put together 5 consecutive days above average was October 13-17 (note: 3 of those days were +2, +1, +3, but still counting them). If the long range is any indication, we'll have a shot to do it this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Funny thing with all this torch talk. My 850s are not expected to go above 0C for the next 120 Hours according to the 12Z GFS and Parallel 12Z GFS/ 84 hours on the 12Z NAM. Right now the first 6 days of December look to average slightly below normal IMBY. IMO temps right now are not a torch as previously modeled last week for this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 boring here....but the wheels are in motion... from this mornings GFS.... insert jaws theme song... dat pac jet... 12Z 01DEC... 00Z 09DEC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Not sure what WxBell is going with for December but to me, this is about what happens in the Dec 1-15 period as far as where the month ends up. If the first 15 days are an obscene torch in the means, then it's most likely not going to matter what happens the rest of the month. However, if the first 15 days are just kinda mild and the pattern change doesn't get delayed, then it would be possible that the month doesn't end up so bad. -3 for us. But yeah, the first half numbers for Indy are kinda interesting. We'll see. Nothing is ever set in stone in the extended, but I can't say I'm encouraged right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I didn't even know enough weather data existed back then to consider it an analog... Here is the data for downtown Toronto for that winter. Data goes back to 1839 in Toronto. Temperatures are in degrees Celsius. http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=5051&dlyRange=1840-03-01%7C2013-12-10&cmdB1=Go&Year=1855&Month=12&Day=30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Funny thing with all this torch talk. My 850s are not expected to go above 0C for the next 120 Hours according to the 12Z GFS and Parallel 12Z GFS/ 84 hours on the 12Z NAM. Right now the first 6 days of December look to average slightly below normal IMBY. IMO temps right now are not a torch as previously modeled last week for this time frame. Not a torch, but 850mb temperatures are still climatologically around -4 to -5C for you during the first couple weeks of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Just so long as the cold returns by Christmas. Our first week of December has somewhat milder temps in store. Today is supposed to be in the mid 20's, but by Saturday we are in the low 40's with pretty much all week being above freezing, and that extends to the first 10 days. Looks boring, but at least I will be able to do the holiday shopping and not worry about the weather, and probably even get out to get some photos as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Not a torch, but 850mb temperatures are still climatologically around -4 to -5C for you during the first couple weeks of December. And the forecast for this first week of December will average slightly below normal IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Here is the data for downtown Toronto for that winter. Data goes back to 1839 in Toronto. Temperatures are in degrees Celsius. http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=5051&dlyRange=1840-03-01%7C2013-12-10&cmdB1=Go&Year=1855&Month=12&Day=30 November didn't look that cold IMO in 1855.... Give it time the pattern looks to be warm coming up, but the king is cold this year. Could this be our January thaw ?? Winter did start early.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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