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Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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D10 EURO is hella ugly. I haven't seen a horror like this since Dec. 2006 (not saying Dec 2014 is going to transpire just like that December).

 

 

 

It has been clear for a while that the first week or so of December will not have much in the way of winter weather, just look at the CPC outlook.

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D10 EURO is hella ugly. I haven't seen a horror like this since Dec. 2006 (not saying Dec 2014 is going to transpire just like that December).

I would say Happy Thanksgiving to you but yours was back on Oct 13 :P

Thankfully there is not a lack of cold air to be tapped.  Keep in mind even last winter didn't look good at all last year at this time.  The cancel winter posts were flying across the board into the 1st half of December. Blocking just needs to be reestablished and the signals are it will. This relaxation was expected (just not wanted  :lol: ).  Heck the models at the end of October looked like a Nov. torch and look at the results.  The models have been chaos lately so Day 10 are more lala land then normal IMO.

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I would say Happy Thanksgiving to you but yours was back on Oct 13 :P

Thankfully there is not a lack of cold air to be tapped.  Keep in mind even last winter didn't look good at all last year at this time.  The cancel winter posts were flying across the board into the 1st half of December. Blocking just needs to be reestablished and the signals are it will. This relaxation was expected (just not wanted  :lol: ).  Heck the models at the end of October looked like a Nov. torch and look at the results.  The models have been chaos lately so Day 10 are more lala land then normal IMO.

 

If the universe were in perfect equilibrium, it'd be Columbus Day here. But it's not. :(

 

Yeah, I'm not making any predictions about December. But when the H5 570dam height contour gets to our latitude in December, that's a good indication of a "relaxed" pattern. 

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D10 EURO is hella ugly. I haven't seen a horror like this since Dec. 2006 (not saying Dec 2014 is going to transpire just like that December).

 

CFSv2 agrees with you. 

 

 

 

0z Euro ensembles are pretty horrific past day 10. Hopefully they are wrong too.

 

CFS was of course a massive failure for this November, so we got that going for ourselves. ;)

 

 

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D10 EURO is hella ugly. I haven't seen a horror like this since Dec. 2006 (not saying Dec 2014 is going to transpire just like that December).

I actually think the euro is going to look polar opposite in the 10-15 once it starts to catch onto the E Asian/SW Pacific pattern. One heck of an MJO wave has began to form over the Eastern IO and it happens to coincide with a strong CCKW as well. Once forcing gets to phase 6 and beyond at this time of year EPO starts declining and the PNA comes up while sig cold is transported into the C part of the continent before spreading east. Timing for this looks to be ~12/6-12/8. From that point on a plains/eastern trough should rule in the means IMO(~12/10-1/1) as the +PDO/Nino background state is enhanced by the W-C Pac forcing.

Phase 6 correlation in Dec

 

MJO forecast thanks to Mike's site:

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No guidance has done particularly well as of late, but the GEFS is at odds with the Euro ensembles on the upcoming pattern. The GEFS is showing a +PNA and generally

-AO developing in the extended, which you can see on the CPC teleconnection indices. The cold in Canada isn't really being dislodged it appears even during the relaxation period so I'd bet against an extended all out torch. The CFS v2 has been awful for months so I wouldn't put too much stock in it either.

Also good post by blizzard96 regarding the MJO progression. I'm not an expert in it, but from what I've seen it should trend to more favorable with time.

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If the universe were in perfect equilibrium, it'd be Columbus Day here. But it's not. :(

 

Yeah, I'm not making any predictions about December. But when the H5 570dam height contour gets to our latitude in December, that's a good indication of a "relaxed" pattern. 

 

In other words, a "typical" El Nino pattern is shaping up for at-least the first half of December. Models keep the +NAO going for the next 1-2 weeks which should prevent any consistent cold air building up in the East. The AO looks to be neutral/slightly negative, however the cold air is more refined towards Russia/Europe. Though I agree with blizzardof96. I believe by the second half we should transition into a +PNA/-EPO pattern as the MJO begins propagating through more favourable phases (6-7-8-1). 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

Still alot of model spread at the moment, but I wouldn't discount December just yet. However, i'm not liking initial signs so far. We've seen 2-3 decent coastal storms already, which is usually indicative of a classic El Nino pattern, and 2009-10 had alot of them, lol  Despite the warm signal, Western/Northern Canada remains pretty cold in the coming weeks so its just a matter of time before it pushes further East. 

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I always take the extended with a grain of salt anyway, but the with the models REALLY struggling, it appears that everyone will need to keep a short-term mindset when worrying about the weather. The extended seems to be showing even more mirages (good and bad) than usual, and it seems that we cant even really nail a pattern in. We are due for a bit of a relaxation/warm spell, so a few warm days wont surprise me. In fact, Ill be surprised if we DONT have them. But we are working on, what, a year and a half since we have been able to sustain any warm stretch? So I wont believe anything sustained until I see it. Give me mild days in early December rather than towards Christmas!

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CFSv2 agrees with you. 

 

attachicon.gifcfs dec 2006.gif

 

attachicon.gifdec 2006.png

 

0z Euro ensembles are pretty horrific past day 10. Hopefully they are wrong too.

 

CFS was of course a massive failure for this November, so we got that going for ourselves. ;)

 

attachicon.gifcfs nov 2014.gif

 

attachicon.gifnov 2014 thru 11:26.png

 

 

Don has a good post in the main forum on why the CFS is probably wrong.

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CFS v2 nailed Morch 2012 perfectly.

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201203.gif

It did.....and that was OVER 2.5 YEARS ago! So thats 100% irrelevant. I think it even called for a cold winter last year. It has been in recent months that its performance has been absolutely hideous. If the CFS was right in late October, tons of places would have a top 10 warmest November....the reality is they will have a top 10 coldest November.

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Don't bring up 2006. In the sea of warmth, the models were predicting a major blizzard for NW Ohio and SE Michigan(I was in Columbus at the time) in the 60-84 range. They had been showing it in some form and strength for some time, but that series of runs(12z) I believe had about all of them showing it. About a 978-980mb bomb. Toledo and Detroit were crushed..............until a run later and it completely died into some weak cold front and sloppy snow showers. What went from a great Christmas blizzard to nothing........that close in.

 

By far the worst model bust in our area, of my time looking at models. It made February 2009 look like a simple misstep.

i dont remember that at all. interesting.

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Models really diverge by mid week with the Euro showing a fairly decent trough over the Lakes while the GFS looks zonal. Meanwhile, the Canadian is between the two although closer to the Euro. Quite a spread in what is almost in the short range time frame. Not exciting with no real storminess, but a headache for temp forecasts.

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I wouldn't worry. Today's Euro Weeklies look pretty good after mid-Dec. This lines up with the MJO heading towards the cold phases and the current strat warming taking place. 

 

 

Only issue is that they've not been so good lately, to put it mildly.  Maybe they'll get back on track.

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Agree. Some have been joking about these mirage warmups for a while...but I really thought this one had legs. These extended warmups continue to turn into 1 or 2 day events as we get closer. Remember years ago it was the opposite?

 

painfully true at that time....the comment of "looks like winter may finally be here next week" was thrown around just as much as "looks like we warm up next week" the last two winters.  However, with how this November has gone...even extended bouts of "normal" temps feel torchy...

 

snippet from the WPC today this morning...

 

 

IN THE NRN STREAM...DEEP EXTRATROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT FROM THE

BERING SEA INTO GULF OF ALASKA SHOULD ACT TO BUILD AN AMPLIFIED

MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA. THIS SHOULD BETTER ALLOW

ENERGY AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC COLD AIR TO DIG TO THE LEE OF THE

RIDGE TO CARVE OUT A GRADUALLY PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFYING NWRN TO

N-CENTRAL TO ERN US MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH AMPLE

ROOM TO DIG NOW PROVIDED BY A SLOWER INLAND PROGRESSION OF SRN

STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM ENERGIES. THIS ALSO OFFERS SOME CONTINUITY

ADJUSTMENT FROM PRIOR WPC GUIDANCE SO AGAIN USED A MIX OF 30%

OVERNIGHT WPC WITH 70% 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TO PRIMARILY

DERIVE OUR SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURE AND 500 MB PROGS TO SOFTEN THE

CONTINUITY CHANGE THAT IS MOST EVIDENT BY DAYS 6/7 IN ALLOWING A

MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF COOLING HIGH PRESSURE DOWN BY THEN ACROSS

THE S-CENTRAL AND ERN US ALONG WITH MORE ENHANCED HEAVIER PCPN

POTENTIAL WITH APPROACH OF THE MORE DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTED AND

MOISTURE FOCUSING ASSOCIATED LEAD FRONTAL SYSTEM.

 

I think we (in general) start entering a more favorable set up for some chunky baro-zone snows...as we step our way into actual winter timestamps via the calendar I see more baro impacts in our subforum showing up (which is kinda, duh...but just the way I feel the next few weeks start to unfold)...deepen the northern plains & northern lakes snowpack and make the transient shots of the Canadian arctic air that will be piling up provide a bigger punch when they bleed in (even if only glancing blows through the month of dec)

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December 1911 had just about a wall to wall warmth from Dec 5 to Dec 23 before things starting weaving before the drop in January.

 

I don't know about other places, but conditions on the ground in Columbus match up pretty close so far to fall 1911.

 

October Mean

1911: 54.1

2014: 54.4

 

November Mean

1911: 38.3

2014 through the 27th: 37.4

 

Both Novembers featured at least 3" of snow, which has a strong correlation there for a decent snow winter.

 

December 1911 had a mean of 37.4.

 

Using today's averages, January 1912 was 10.4 degrees below normal, February was 9.4 degrees below normal and March was 7.7 degrees below normal, so definitely a cold fall and winter with the exception of December.

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1911-12 is an interesting one. It was a late blooming Nino, which seems to be the case with this current one. Also was preceded by a Nina/cool neutral winter.

 

Indianapolis stats for that winter. Departures based off downtown averages (1871-1942).

 

November 1911: 36.9˚ -5.4˚

November 2014: 35.9˚ projected

 

December 1911: 36.7˚ +4.2˚

January 1912: 17.2˚ -11.7˚

February 1912: 22.7˚ -8.2˚

March 1912: 32.8˚ -7.6˚

Winter DJF: 25.6˚ -5.2˚

Winter DJFM: 27.4˚ -5.8˚

 

Monthly snowfall (Oct-Apr): 0.0", 1.2", 0.4", 9.0", 12.0", 10.5", 1.0"

1911-12 season snowfall total: 34.1"

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1911-12 is an interesting one. It was a late blooming Nino, which seems to be the case with this current one. Also was preceded by a Nina/cool neutral winter.

 

Indianapolis stats for that winter. Departures based off downtown averages (1871-1942).

 

November 1911: 36.9˚ -5.4˚

November 2014: 35.9˚ projected

 

December 1911: 36.7˚ +4.2˚

January 1912: 17.2˚ -11.7˚

February 1912: 22.7˚ -8.2˚

March 1912: 32.8˚ -7.6˚

Winter DJF: 25.6˚ -5.2˚

Winter DJFM: 27.4˚ -5.8˚

 

Monthly snowfall (Oct-Apr): 0.0", 1.2", 0.4", 9.0", 12.0", 10.5", 1.0"

1911-12 season snowfall total: 34.1"

 

 

What strength did the Nino peak at (or estimated to have peaked at)?

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