Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion

[Chitown Storm]

A 6" snow in many parts of this sub forum at any point, especially in November, is worthy of a thread. The day I'm not excited about a 6" snowfall is the day I quit following weather and move to San Diego.

[Powerball]

Thread for a 6-inch snow?

 

6" would be considered Winter Storm Warning criteria snowfall on this side of the border...

 

So I would say a 6" snowfall worthy of its own thread.

[IWXwx]

Anybody biting on what the GFS has been showing for a Black Friday - Saturday snowstorm? 4 fairly consistent runs in a row showing these snow totals...

I'm not much of a thread starter, but if the GFS remains consistent on this, it is probably thread starting time for us northern subforum peeps (not many of us lol).

 

The track and timing makes sense. I'm not sure about the clipper having enough moisture or fluff to drop 6 though. Anyone else with thoughts?

[Powerball]

The track and timing makes sense. I'm not sure about the clipper having enough moisture or fluff to drop 6 though. Anyone else with thoughts?

 

With the frontogenesis signal showing up for this system, I can certainly envision a narrow band of 6" happening.

[Harry]

6" would be considered Winter Storm Warning criteria snowfall on this side of the border...

 

So I would say a 6" snowfall worthy of its own thread.

 

 

Won't get a warning for that here unless there is alot of wind and or ice with it.

[Powerball]

Won't get a warning for that here unless there is alot of wind and or ice with it.

 

Are you sure? 

 

I know you have your complaints about GRR, but according to the below link, warning criteria is 6" in 12 hours or 8" in 24 hours (just like for DTX)...

 

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/classes/mt107/images/NWS_CRH_Winter_Wx_Products.pdf

[harrisale]

Well I suppose it's still November so it could be thread worthy. From the image posted seemed like a fairly run of the mill event, especially when some of those northern areas have been getting a foot plus in recent Lake Effect events (and as Harry pointed out might not even be WSW worthy is some of those areas). Figured something in the 3"-6" range in the northern reaches of the subforum would work fine in the "Short Range" thread.

[Stebo]

There are too many threads

[Geos]

0z GFS dragged the snow area to the southwest a bit with the Friday wave.

 

 

0z GGEM is doing the same.

[Harry]

Are you sure? 

 

I know you have your complaints about GRR, but according to the below link, warning criteria is 6" in 12 hours or 8" in 24 hours (just like for DTX)...

 

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/classes/mt107/images/NWS_CRH_Winter_Wx_Products.pdf

 

 

That i believe is outdated.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/?n=winter_defs

 

I have seen GRR use something like they do. GRR calls it impact based Warnings/Advisories.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/iwx/program_areas/publications/winter/Winter_Weather_Products_Criteria.pdf

 

GRR ofcourse has nothing.. I searched all over..

[A-L-E-K]

just loops the euro/gfs

 

 

zzzzzzzzzzzzz

[michsnowfreak]

Well I suppose it's still November so it could be thread worthy. From the image posted seemed like a fairly run of the mill event, especially when some of those northern areas have been getting a foot plus in recent Lake Effect events (and as Harry pointed out might not even be WSW worthy is some of those areas). Figured something in the 3"-6" range in the northern reaches of the subforum would work fine in the "Short Range" thread.

i do agree that this is no 6" snowfall, and if someone sneaks in 6", it wont be where anyone on this board lives . But most of us, outside of lake events, average 1-2 events per year of 6"+. The last decade is not normal. In any event.....I think a 6" snowfall is worthy of a thread whether its November or January. However, starting a thread because the 300 hour GFS shows a bomb.....no!

[TugHillMatt]

 

 

That i believe is outdated.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/?n=winter_defs

 

I have seen GRR use something like they do. GRR calls it impact based Warnings/Advisories.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/iwx/program_areas/publications/winter/Winter_Weather_Products_Criteria.pdf

 

GRR ofcourse has nothing.. I searched all over..

 

GRR just does days on end of Winter Weather Advisories that they extend or cancel...

[beavis1729]

 

Well I suppose it's still November so it could be thread worthy. From the image posted seemed like a fairly run of the mill event, especially when some of those northern areas have been getting a foot plus in recent Lake Effect events (and as Harry pointed out might not even be WSW worthy is some of those areas). Figured something in the 3"-6" range in the northern reaches of the subforum would work fine in the "Short Range" thread.

You could use the Thanksgiving Mood Dust thread that Alek started a few days ago.

[Gilbertfly]

12z runs going away from extended above average temps now the first week of December....a day or 2 of warmth this weekend then back to average and below average temps...

I'm with most in here....unless it's the heart of the winter I could really care less what the temps are (if anything I would prefer warmer, cause why not?)...shots of warmth breed shots at bigger (better) winter storms....

that being said, the medium/long range extended furnaces shown by models will continue to be garbage until they verify at least once...imo

[michsnowfreak]

12z runs going away from extended above average temps now the first week of December....a day or 2 of warmth this weekend then back to average and below average temps...

 

I'm with most in here....unless it's the heart of the winter I could really care less what the temps are (if anything I would prefer warmer, cause why not?)...shots of warmth breed shots at bigger (better) winter storms....

 

that being said, the medium/long range extended furnaces shown by models will continue to be garbage until there verify at least once...imo

Agree. Some have been joking about these mirage warmups for a while...but I really thought this one had legs. These extended warmups continue to turn into 1 or 2 day events as we get closer. Remember years ago it was the opposite?

[SchaumburgStormer]

Agree. Some have been joking about these mirage warmups for a while...but I really thought this one had legs. These extended warmups continue to turn into 1 or 2 day events as we get closer. Remember years ago it was the opposite?

Absolutely. 2011-2012 was the exact opposite. I remember waiting for that long range cold air to come barreling on down, and it never did.

Trends die hard,

[RCNYILWX]

Just put up our winter outlook for northern IL and northwest IN: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/winter1415_outlook.pdf

Feedback welcome.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

[SchaumburgStormer]

Just put up our winter outlook for northern IL and northwest IN: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/winter1415_outlook.pdfFeedback welcome.Sent from my SM-G900V

Just got finished reading it. Love the detail and explanation throughout. Seems like a solid and reasonable outlook.

[RCNYILWX]

Just got finished reading it. Love the detail and explanation throughout. Seems like a solid and reasonable outlook.

Thanks. Glad you enjoyed it. Haven't seen any reason to diverge from a colder look since we've been assessing things throughout the fall. I think the big question is the extent of the anomalies, and especially snowfall. Below normal liquid precip is a pretty strong signal, but snow is such a wild card. All it takes is one huge event really. The data suggests that lake effect could bias toward snowier for the lakeside counties, whereas inland areas might depend on a big synoptic event or two to get to above climo.

[Hoosier]

Just put up our winter outlook for northern IL and northwest IN: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/winter1415_outlook.pdf

Feedback welcome.

Sent from my SM-G900V

 

 

Nice presentation.  I'd like to get your take on something regarding Nino.  What if it strengthens more than forecast and peaks at moderate intensity?  Do you think it would change things much locally or would the lag time be too long and only effect the tail end of winter into spring?

[Gilbertfly]

Just put up our winter outlook for northern IL and northwest IN: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/winter1415_outlook.pdf

Feedback welcome.

Sent from my SM-G900V

 

Nice work Ricky....

 

I am not as met educated as you and many others on here...but I do know many of the generalities of the indexes....that being said, I was still able to read it beginning to end without any hiccups.  Good detail and technical analysis, while still explanatory enough for peeps like me (with lesser core knowledge) to be able to read and understand. 

 

And from a prediction standpoint I tend to agree with your summation as well (fwiw)...Unless something changes in the pattern, I don't see extended periods of above average temps nor do I see any major punches of qpf falling in our particular area...I do like the setup for better chances of LE similar to last year...sometimes minor enhancement and sometimes some direct flow outside of synoptic (more enhancement than stand alone lake effect events though).  As you mentioned the snowfall tallies can be tricky...get a random juiced clipper dropping .30 QPF with 24:1 ratios and you start padding the stats quick...

 

Anywho...nice work and thanks for sharing...your work is appreciated

[michsnowfreak]

Thanks. Glad you enjoyed it. Haven't seen any reason to diverge from a colder look since we've been assessing things throughout the fall. I think the big question is the extent of the anomalies, and especially snowfall. Below normal liquid precip is a pretty strong signal, but snow is such a wild card. All it takes is one huge event really. The data suggests that lake effect could bias toward snowier for the lakeside counties, whereas inland areas might depend on a big synoptic event or two to get to above climo.

Good outlook. Actually quite similar to DTX/Bill Deedlers local outlooks for SE MI (cold, dry, normal-ish snow).

 

I have a question...will ORD still be reporting snow depth this winter? I only ask because I was checking their f6 and see all the days have 0 for depth.

[RCNYILWX]

Nice presentation. I'd like to get your take on something regarding Nino. What if it strengthens more than forecast and peaks at moderate intensity? Do you think it would change things much locally or would the lag time be too long and only effect the tail end of winter into spring?

Thanks! I think it's probably too late to have much impact since it's been been a late developing Niño anyway. Also my guess is there wouldn't be too much of a difference between a low end moderate event and a higher end weak event. The positive factors in terms of cold, especially the tendency for strong high latiude blocking and the +PDO favoring eastern troughing/+PNA, are not likely to be overcome. Another thing we'll have to watch for is the Niño anomalies settling farther west with time, as occurred in 2009-10 despite it being a borderline strong episode.

[RCNYILWX]

Good outlook. Actually quite similar to DTX/Bill Deedlers local outlooks for SE MI (cold, dry, normal-ish snow).

I have a question...will ORD still be reporting snow depth this winter? I only ask because I was checking their f6 and see all the days have 0 for depth.

That's a really good question. It's funny I should know but hadn't really thought about it til you asked. T-Snow might be able to fill us in on whether there was a policy change. Only other guess is they never officially had a 1" depth there this month at 12z.

[Harry]

Just put up our winter outlook for northern IL and northwest IN: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/winter1415_outlook.pdf

Feedback welcome.

Sent from my SM-G900V

 

 

Well done!

[michsnowfreak]

That's a really good question. It's funny I should know but hadn't really thought about it til you asked. T-Snow might be able to fill us in on whether there was a policy change. Only other guess is they never officially had a 1" depth there this month at 12z.

I only noticed because my bro lives in Chicago now (Lakeview) and he makes it sound like hes had very little snow compared to the rest of the area, he said the other day was the first time he saw white grass, so I checked the f6 for ORD and saw all the 0 depths. Here at DTX, DTW, MBS, & FNT all report 12z snow depth every day.

[Geos]

Very nice outlook Ricky! I think that a pretty good analysis of everything that is on the table at this point. I think most everybody could read and understand all those slides.

Good point about the 2009-10 episode. The position of the strongest positive anomalies were 3.4 and 4 and not so much 3 and 1 + 2. Not all El Niño's are created equally. The pattern across the US gets overwhelmed with mild air when you everything from 3.4 to 3 and 1+2 way above normal.

The North Pacific conditions are probably going to be the biggest driver in North America weather this winter. Interesting that you mention LES being more common. Why is that during a weaker El Niño? Is it because the cold air flow tends to back in from the north and northeast more often as opposed to the northwest?

I know also LES can get turned towards the western shore when lows passes by to the south, turning the flow against the normal.

For anyone wondering what the different ENSO regions are...

[RCNYILWX]

Nice work Ricky....

I am not as met educated as you and many others on here...but I do know many of the generalities of the indexes....that being said, I was still able to read it beginning to end without any hiccups. Good detail and technical analysis, while still explanatory enough for peeps like me (with lesser core knowledge) to be able to read and understand.

And from a prediction standpoint I tend to agree with your summation as well (fwiw)...Unless something changes in the pattern, I don't see extended periods of above average temps nor do I see any major punches of qpf falling in our particular area...I do like the setup for better chances of LE similar to last year...sometimes minor enhancement and sometimes some direct flow outside of synoptic (more enhancement than stand alone lake effect events though). As you mentioned the snowfall tallies can be tricky...get a random juiced clipper dropping .30 QPF with 24:1 ratios and you start padding the stats quick...

Anywho...nice work and thanks for sharing...your work is appreciated

Thanks for the kind words Gilbert. To highlight how the potential for higher ratios could help despite a drier pattern being favored, 1977-78 actually was a relatively dry winter (just under normal in Chicago and over 1" below normal but obviously had the big snow totals (71.2" in DJF in Chicago and 40.2" in RFD). This also shows the importance that lake effect could hold. Just gotta hope we keep a fairly active clipper pattern with a few sizable events and not something like 02-03, where our area missed out, though it was a good season east and southeast of here.

[snowstormcanuck]

Nah, don't do it. Might be good juju to keep it like that.

 

 

lol, either that or, given the way the models looks now, it may be prescient.