Gilbertfly Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Just an FYI, last December had a nice warm up first week too. I believe ORD has several days in the mid 50's. Yes...bottom dropped out around the 10th or 11th if i recall correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 First week of Dec looks like a dumpster fire. Meh, you'll still be able to ride your sled up in the snow belts. Like has been posted above, a little warm up in early December isn't anything to get bummed out about. Anybody that expects wall-to-wall cold throughout winter has been into the mushrooms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 A couple of warm days at the start of last December, but then full steam ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I had forgotten about the mini-torch right after Christmas. It was kind of insignificant with the way the rest of the winter turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Really more of a Nina type pattern coming up than Nino. The question is how long it lasts. Some knowledgeable people on this site have been warning that the weenies will be complaining about "where did winter go?" only to have things snap back later in December. Roller coaster winters are a lot more common than last winter anyway. I WANT snow all the time from now til April, but Id certainly prefer a more favorable pattern closer to Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Last year, a winter-long stretch of snowcover started December 9th, though it wouldnt get deep til January. Until then, DTW only had a smattering of dustings with T snow depths, December 9th being their first day of 1"+ snow depth en route to a record 96 days. By comparison...DTW has had 7 days of 1"+ snowcover thru Nov 24th this year! STATION: DETROIT MI MONTH: DECEMBER YEAR: 2013 LATITUDE: 42 13 N LONGITUDE: 83 20 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND================================================================================1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MINDY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR================================================================================ 1 46 27 37 2 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.0 13 310 M M 9 18 16 300 2 40 28 34 -1 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.5 8 340 M M 8 18 13 20 3 40 27 34 0 31 0 0.09 0.1 0 4.5 10 80 M M 10 18 14 140 4 55 37 46 12 19 0 T 0.0 0 5.6 18 120 M M 10 18 25 130 5 59 31 45 11 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 15.0 32 230 M M 10 41 230 6 31 21 26 -7 39 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.7 14 270 M M 10 17 300 7 26 16 21 -12 44 0 T T 0 8.1 16 270 M M 5 20 270 8 30 15 23 -9 42 0 0.03 0.5 0 7.7 15 50 M M 8 168 21 50 9 30 20 25 -7 40 0 0.04 0.4 1 15.5 25 230 M M 8 168 36 22010 22 12 17 -15 48 0 T T 1 15.4 30 210 M M 8 37 22011 24 8 16 -15 49 0 0.01 0.3 1 11.2 18 280 M M 8 18 23 28012 19 5 12 -19 53 0 T T 1 12.8 22 210 M M 7 1 25 21013 29 18 24 -7 41 0 0.00 0.0 1 7.4 16 40 M M 10 1 21 4014 22 19 21 -9 44 0 0.48 7.7 2 11.4 17 20 M M 10 12 25 4015 25 15 20 -10 45 0 0.03 1.0 8 12.1 25 260 M M 10 18 33 25016 21 5 13 -17 52 0 0.08 1.0 8 4.7 14 220 M M 8 18 28 32017 27 14 21 -8 44 0 0.03 0.6 8 10.3 22 190 M M 10 18 26 21018 30 21 26 -3 39 0 T 0.1 8 10.7 21 190 M M 9 18 23 19019 40 25 33 4 32 0 0.00 0.0 8 7.6 17 190 M M 9 1 20 18020 41 34 38 9 27 0 0.34 0.0 5 3.9 13 200 M M 10 12 15 21021 35 32 34 6 31 0 0.88 0.0 2 7.5 20 20 M M 9 12 23 2022 39 33 36 8 29 0 0.25 0.0 1 10.5 28 220 M M 10 1 37 22023 35 23 29 1 36 0 0.02 0.1 T 11.6 21 250 M M 10 18 24 24024 23 12 18 -10 47 0 T 0.2 T 9.5 18 280 M M 6 25 29025 25 11 18 -10 47 0 0.01 0.2 T 9.8 21 150 M M 9 1 26 15026 29 24 27 0 38 0 0.05 1.6 1 11.8 24 270 M M 9 1 32 27027 39 26 33 6 32 0 T 0.1 1 9.5 23 200 M M 8 1 30 20028 47 31 39 12 26 0 0.00 0.0 T 13.3 24 210 M M 5 32 21029 44 23 34 7 31 0 T T T 11.5 21 300 M M 9 16 26 30030 23 14 19 -8 46 0 T 0.1 T 8.2 18 300 M M 9 22 29031 23 15 19 -7 46 0 0.08 1.5 1 12.5 21 220 M M 9 18 26 270================================================================================SM 1019 642 1177 0 2.42 15.5 296.8 M 270 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Roller coaster winters are a lot more common than last winter anyway. I WANT snow all the time from now til April, but Id certainly prefer a more favorable pattern closer to Christmas. Roller coaster patterns are sometimes the best patterns for consistent snyoptic snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Was reading some old threads from around this time last year into December and came across this. Classic. Made me lol man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Thinking ~12/7-10 is the time that true arctic air starts to return to the pattern via EPO decline and WAF increase near AK. MJO/E Asian pattern in pretty good agreement though the ensembles/weeklies seem to be struggling a lot with this pattern development. With this threat comes an increase in wave 1/2 and possibly a final couple of blows to the start come late Dec/early Jan. Dec 10th-30th should be a pretty exciting time frame IMO. FWIW the latest weeklies are starting to pick up on the Aleutian low returning by weeks 3&4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Roller coaster patterns are sometimes the best patterns for consistent snyoptic snows. They are (see 2007-08). A winter like last year (brutal cold AND constant synoptic snows) flat out defied all logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The first two weeks of December continue to look horrible. Still, there have been some big turnarounds in the past. November 1993, for example was similar to this November in southern Ontario only for the first three weeks of December to turn out mild - I was in Grade 8 that year and can remember playing soccer outside the week before Christmas. January 1994 was epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12z GFS is warm, warm, warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 If the 0z Euro ensembles are right about the pattern through December 10...and probably a bit beyond that...the complaint thread will quadruple in posts. Also might be a good time to start taking bets on the first winter cancel meltdown. I know who I'm going with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 If the 0z Euro ensembles are right about the pattern through December 10...and probably a bit beyond that...the complaint thread will quadruple in posts. Also might be a good time to start taking bets on the first winter cancel meltdown. I know who I'm going with... Looking on the bright side, almost everyone across the subforums will be getting screwed if the models are right. Spread the wealth misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looking on the bright side, almost everyone across the subforums will be getting screwed if the models are right. Spread the wealth misery. it actually does tend to cut down on complaints when everyone is torching....it can be hard watching east coast bomb after bomb while stuck in a dull dry nw flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 it actually does tend to cut down on complaints when everyone is torching....it can be hard watching east coast bomb after bomb while stuck in a dull dry nw flow Sure, you'd like it a lot (warmth)...but believe it or not, there's a good number of people who actually like winter in December. People were jumping off cliffs in early December last year, as we saw...silly as that seems in retrospect. I might be wrong I guess, but I'll stick with my prediction that the complaint thread does brisk business in the next couple of weeks. Pattern looks bad for winter fans, for awhile at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sure, you'd like it a lot (warmth)...but believe it or not, there's a good number of people who actually like winter in December. People were jumping off cliffs in early December last year, as we saw...silly as that seems in retrospect. I might be wrong I guess, but I'll stick with my prediction that the complaint thread does brisk business in the next couple of weeks. Pattern looks bad for winter fans, for awhile at least. i want big dogs or warmth, this cold dry stuff is for the weenies early december looks like a tosser but i'm sure we head back into the deep freeze before too long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12z GFS is warm, warm, warm As much as I don't want it to... The first 10-15 days of December is usually a mixed bag, if this lingers any further then that, I might be starting to get mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Pretty impressive (useless?) baroclinic zone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 might not be useless if you live in Duluth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 might not be useless if you live in Duluth Meh, a positive-tilt trough, sheared out northern stream wave and a pitiful at best southern stream wave typically doesn't lead to much to write home about. It could produce to a modest ana-frontal snow event for parts of the forum, but otherwise likely nothing of real significance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'd be surprised if December begins AND ends warm. This early December moderation was well telegraphed...no surprise. That being said, as much as I love snow, I admit I would enjoy just a little bit, watching mother nature humble the hell out of all the experts. Especially this year when mets were tripping over each other to be the first to lay claim to a harsh winter forecast...haven't seen a single one go mild. That alone should bring pause. Isn't it DT that always said when everyone is thinking the same, no one is thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Anybody biting on what the GFS has been showing for a Black Friday - Saturday snowstorm? 4 fairly consistent runs in a row showing these snow totals... I'm not much of a thread starter, but if the GFS remains consistent on this, it is probably thread starting time for us northern subforum peeps (not many of us lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Anybody biting on what the GFS has been showing for a Black Friday - Saturday snowstorm? 4 fairly consistent runs in a row showing these snow totals... I'm not much of a thread starter, but if the GFS remains consistent on this, it is probably thread starting time for us northern subforum peeps (not many of us lol). Thread for a 6-inch snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Thread for a 6-inch snow? Better than my 3.5" season total so far lol, In fact last year when I watched everybody south of me get endless 6"+ storms and detroit break their all time record snowfall, my ONLY storm over 6" was a 7" storm late in the season, so yeah love me some 3-5" storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Anybody biting on what the GFS has been showing for a Black Friday - Saturday snowstorm? 4 fairly consistent runs in a row showing these snow totals... I'm not much of a thread starter, but if the GFS remains consistent on this, it is probably thread starting time for us northern subforum peeps (not many of us lol). It certainly has my attention as the GFS has been very consistent with it, but the other models have been kind of meh, so waiting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Better than my 3.5" season total so far lol, In fact last year when I watched everybody south of me get endless 6"+ storms and detroit break their all time record snowfall, my ONLY storm over 6" was a 7" storm late in the season, so yeah love me some 3-5" storms. Wow. Thats crazy. We had 6 such storms. But I love those 3-5" ones too ...hell I love any measurable snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Thread for a 6-inch snow? If it materializes in now-cast time, have we ever NOT had a thread for a 6-inch snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Thread for a 6-inch snow? What's wrong with a thread for a 6" snow..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 What's wrong with a thread for a 6" snow..? Nothing, though I would probably wait another couple of days, but a 6" snowfall is thread worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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