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Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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I don't think it's going out on a limb at this point to forecast a mild start to December.  Most models are showing this.  In fact the 10 day euro shows widespread 40s and 50s across much of the subforum Dec. 2nd.  60's + to the Ohio river. 

It's been well advertised....a quick warm up this weekend, followed by another plunge and a couple of chances of some Thanksgiving/weekend light snows....then a relaxation.   The gfs has been bouncing back and forth which it always does when a change(s) is coming.

 

On a totally selfish anti-weenie note, I wouldn't mind a mild start to December...then bring on the snow and cold for the second half.

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I don't think it's going out on a limb at this point to forecast a mild start to December.  Most models are showing this.  In fact the 10 day euro shows widespread 40s and 50s across much of the subforum Dec. 2nd.  60's + to the Ohio river. 

It's been well advertised....a quick warm up this weekend, followed by another plunge and a couple of chances of some Thanksgiving/weekend light snows....then a relaxation.   The gfs has been bouncing back and forth which it always does when a change(s) is coming.

 

On a totally selfish anti-weenie note, I wouldn't mind a mild start to December...then bring on the snow and cold for the second half.

It got up into the upper 50s here on December 5th last year before the cold came crashing in after the 10th. I just hope it doesn't end up like December 2006.

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12z GGEM has two disturbances, one for next Wed and one for Thanksgiving. Same general premise as the GFS, but it's a little more "developed" with the second wave. For LAF purposes, it's all liquid...but northern IN gets scraped with some snow.

 

Beat me to it. The Thanksgiving one looks pretty nice for those who get in on it. 

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Just the way we have started off, I am thinking this may be a very "roller coastery" winter. I would rather we deal with the warm air during the first half than the second half of December.

Agree. Often times when December starts white and cold, Christmas is mild and brown, and when December starts mild and green, Christmas is cold and white.

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The storm track across Japan and up towards the Bearing Sea is supposed to remain active, so I'd be skeptical about any medium range warm ups showing up.

 

word for word I couldn't have said it better myself....that region has long been active....and ever since that activity flared up the models have struggled with the medium/long range trough placements and timing.  I'm not saying the warm up (to above average temps) can't happen 100%....but anything longer than a day or 2 just doesn't seem likely imo....the models track record speaks for itself

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From reading the excellent mets on the New England forum, it sounds like much of Canada will get flooded with cold in the long range, so it won't take too much to bring that down at times. Probably a back and forth pattern with alternating shots of warmth and cold for a few weeks.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

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word for word I couldn't have said it better myself....that region has long been active....and ever since that activity flared up the models have struggled with the medium/long range trough placements and timing.  I'm not saying the warm up (to above average temps) can't happen 100%....but anything longer than a day or 2 just doesn't seem likely imo....the models track record speaks for itself

 

One of the indicators backing up the stormy northern Pacific is the WPO staying negative.

We might have a few days in the 40s here and there, but that's probably about it going into December.

 

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I agree...  just fun to speculate on what day 7 will bring and what a huge change from earlier runs... but 0z will bring something new so stay tuned.   12z NAEFS is interesting...  huge amount of cold across Asia and parts of Canada...with warming south of this area.  We could be in for an up and down ride, as others have stated.

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Start to see a bit of +PNA/-EPO ridge trying to built on the EURO around D9. But there's also this vortex over AK which looks problematic. At least some consistency with the EURO the last 3 runs or so.

 

And no help from the other oceans either (AO/NAO both look like they'll be + the around D7-10).

 

Would be lame if Nov ends up snowier than Dec.

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Start to see a bit of +PNA/-EPO ridge trying to built on the EURO around D9. But there's also this vortex over AK which looks problematic. At least some consistency with the EURO the last 3 runs or so.

 

And no help from the other oceans either (AO/NAO both look like they'll be + the around D7-10).

 

Would be lame if Nov ends up snowier than Dec.

lol why does your sig say a disappointing 6.2" snow so far?

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Guess I was trying to be ironic. How weenies like myself will never be satisfied. I might ditch it.

 

Nah, don't do it. Might be good juju to keep it like that. :D

 

As for the pattern ahead, European and GFS ensembles have been locked in on a warm first week or so of December...especially for here in central Indiana. That's pretty much a lock IMO. Only caveat would be if something comes along and taps some cold...which still looks to be plentiful in the far northern Plains and just north of the border. 

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Really more of a Nina type pattern coming up than Nino.  The question is how long it lasts.  Some knowledgeable people on this site have been warning that the weenies will be complaining about "where did winter go?" only to have things snap back later in December. 

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Really more of a Nina type pattern coming up than Nino.  The question is how long it lasts.  Some knowledgeable people on this site have been warning that the weenies will be complaining about "where did winter go?" only to have things snap back later in December.

 

Although I'd hate for any part of December to be non-wintry, that's kind of what happened in 1993-94.

Here is ORD as an example...the first 20 days of December were incredibly mild, and then the next 55 days were rather cold (although not very snowy). Even though it was generally colder than normal in Jan and Feb (including the infamous arctic outbreak in mid-Jan), there were large temp swings...so it was difficult to preserve snow cover.

- 12/1/93 through 12/20/93: mean high temp 42.5, mean low temp 30.0, snowfall = T

- 12/21/93 through 2/13/94: mean high temp 23.2, mean low temp 8.3, snowfall = 24.6"

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Thinking ~12/7-10 is the time that true arctic air starts to return to the pattern via EPO decline and WAF increase near AK. MJO/E Asian pattern in pretty good agreement though the ensembles/weeklies seem to be struggling a lot with this pattern development. With this threat comes an increase in wave 1/2 and possibly a final couple of blows to the start come late Dec/early Jan. Dec 10th-30th should be a pretty exciting time frame IMO. 

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