wisconsinwx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The drugs likes the GFS(s) and the GFS(s) likes the drugs. You're going to need drugs yourself if this cold pattern continues in spite of your insistence on a relaxation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I don't think it's going out on a limb at this point to forecast a mild start to December. Most models are showing this. In fact the 10 day euro shows widespread 40s and 50s across much of the subforum Dec. 2nd. 60's + to the Ohio river. It's been well advertised....a quick warm up this weekend, followed by another plunge and a couple of chances of some Thanksgiving/weekend light snows....then a relaxation. The gfs has been bouncing back and forth which it always does when a change(s) is coming. On a totally selfish anti-weenie note, I wouldn't mind a mild start to December...then bring on the snow and cold for the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 12z GFS has a little snow on the turkey for parts of S MN, IA, S WI, N IL, and S MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 12z GFS has a little snow on the turkey for parts of S MN, IA, S WI, N IL, and S MI. A disturbance has been shown in some way on most models and their ensembles on Wed-Thu. Of course, specifics are all over the place at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I don't think it's going out on a limb at this point to forecast a mild start to December. Most models are showing this. In fact the 10 day euro shows widespread 40s and 50s across much of the subforum Dec. 2nd. 60's + to the Ohio river. It's been well advertised....a quick warm up this weekend, followed by another plunge and a couple of chances of some Thanksgiving/weekend light snows....then a relaxation. The gfs has been bouncing back and forth which it always does when a change(s) is coming. On a totally selfish anti-weenie note, I wouldn't mind a mild start to December...then bring on the snow and cold for the second half. It got up into the upper 50s here on December 5th last year before the cold came crashing in after the 10th. I just hope it doesn't end up like December 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 12z GGEM has two disturbances, one for next Wed and one for Thanksgiving. Same general premise as the GFS, but it's a little more "developed" with the second wave. For LAF purposes, it's all liquid...but northern IN gets scraped with some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 12z GGEM has two disturbances, one for next Wed and one for Thanksgiving. Same general premise as the GFS, but it's a little more "developed" with the second wave. For LAF purposes, it's all liquid...but northern IN gets scraped with some snow. Beat me to it. The Thanksgiving one looks pretty nice for those who get in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS with the gradient pattern going on now you must be lov'n the euro 168hr+.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 you must be lov'n the euro 168hr+.... Showing a warmup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Showing a warmup? yea, according to the 12z run, euro says December comes in relatively toasty. Not really a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 yea, according to the 12z run, euro says December comes in relatively toasty. Not really a surprise. Just the way we have started off, I am thinking this may be a very "roller coastery" winter. I would rather we deal with the warm air during the first half than the second half of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just the way we have started off, I am thinking this may be a very "roller coastery" winter. I would rather we deal with the warm air during the first half than the second half of December. I agree....cold and snow for the holidays! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just the way we have started off, I am thinking this may be a very "roller coastery" winter. I would rather we deal with the warm air during the first half than the second half of December. Agree. Often times when December starts white and cold, Christmas is mild and brown, and when December starts mild and green, Christmas is cold and white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 60F for Mt Saukville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The storm track across Japan and up towards the Bearing Sea is supposed to remain active, so I'd be skeptical about any medium range warm ups showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The storm track across Japan and up towards the Bearing Sea is supposed to remain active, so I'd be skeptical about any medium range warm ups showing up. word for word I couldn't have said it better myself....that region has long been active....and ever since that activity flared up the models have struggled with the medium/long range trough placements and timing. I'm not saying the warm up (to above average temps) can't happen 100%....but anything longer than a day or 2 just doesn't seem likely imo....the models track record speaks for itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 From reading the excellent mets on the New England forum, it sounds like much of Canada will get flooded with cold in the long range, so it won't take too much to bring that down at times. Probably a back and forth pattern with alternating shots of warmth and cold for a few weeks. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 word for word I couldn't have said it better myself....that region has long been active....and ever since that activity flared up the models have struggled with the medium/long range trough placements and timing. I'm not saying the warm up (to above average temps) can't happen 100%....but anything longer than a day or 2 just doesn't seem likely imo....the models track record speaks for itself One of the indicators backing up the stormy northern Pacific is the WPO staying negative. We might have a few days in the 40s here and there, but that's probably about it going into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Thats great news guys! The models are flip flopping so much I dont know what to think, but if the signs are there...with our track record the last decade...another great winter may be on the way! Id have banked on a mild winter 2014-15 last spring, so I suppose thats still why i have a bit of doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I agree... just fun to speculate on what day 7 will bring and what a huge change from earlier runs... but 0z will bring something new so stay tuned. 12z NAEFS is interesting... huge amount of cold across Asia and parts of Canada...with warming south of this area. We could be in for an up and down ride, as others have stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Start to see a bit of +PNA/-EPO ridge trying to built on the EURO around D9. But there's also this vortex over AK which looks problematic. At least some consistency with the EURO the last 3 runs or so. And no help from the other oceans either (AO/NAO both look like they'll be + the around D7-10). Would be lame if Nov ends up snowier than Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Start to see a bit of +PNA/-EPO ridge trying to built on the EURO around D9. But there's also this vortex over AK which looks problematic. At least some consistency with the EURO the last 3 runs or so. And no help from the other oceans either (AO/NAO both look like they'll be + the around D7-10). Would be lame if Nov ends up snowier than Dec. lol why does your sig say a disappointing 6.2" snow so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 lol why does your sig say a disappointing 6.2" snow so far? Guess I was trying to be ironic. How weenies like myself will never be satisfied. I might ditch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Guess I was trying to be ironic. How weenies like myself will never be satisfied. I might ditch it. Nah, don't do it. Might be good juju to keep it like that. As for the pattern ahead, European and GFS ensembles have been locked in on a warm first week or so of December...especially for here in central Indiana. That's pretty much a lock IMO. Only caveat would be if something comes along and taps some cold...which still looks to be plentiful in the far northern Plains and just north of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 oz Euro was still warm..especially for MKE and other chicago boyz. Could still be 50F or better next Sunday. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Really more of a Nina type pattern coming up than Nino. The question is how long it lasts. Some knowledgeable people on this site have been warning that the weenies will be complaining about "where did winter go?" only to have things snap back later in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Really more of a Nina type pattern coming up than Nino. The question is how long it lasts. Some knowledgeable people on this site have been warning that the weenies will be complaining about "where did winter go?" only to have things snap back later in December. Although I'd hate for any part of December to be non-wintry, that's kind of what happened in 1993-94. Here is ORD as an example...the first 20 days of December were incredibly mild, and then the next 55 days were rather cold (although not very snowy). Even though it was generally colder than normal in Jan and Feb (including the infamous arctic outbreak in mid-Jan), there were large temp swings...so it was difficult to preserve snow cover. - 12/1/93 through 12/20/93: mean high temp 42.5, mean low temp 30.0, snowfall = T - 12/21/93 through 2/13/94: mean high temp 23.2, mean low temp 8.3, snowfall = 24.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 First week of Dec looks like a dumpster fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Thinking ~12/7-10 is the time that true arctic air starts to return to the pattern via EPO decline and WAF increase near AK. MJO/E Asian pattern in pretty good agreement though the ensembles/weeklies seem to be struggling a lot with this pattern development. With this threat comes an increase in wave 1/2 and possibly a final couple of blows to the start come late Dec/early Jan. Dec 10th-30th should be a pretty exciting time frame IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Just an FYI, last December had a nice warm up first week too. I believe ORD has several days in the mid 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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