Hoosier Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 We had no snow on the ground, and it was the MORNING of Dec 24th and the news said "sorry we wont be having a white Christmas this year, but it will be cold". 12 hours later it was snowing and 30 hours later 6.8" of snow had fallen. One of the ultimate last minute northwest trenders. That post-GHD system in Feb 2011 is another standout in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Remember how that thing kept trending northwest as it got closer. It was great. One of the few times I've been the beneficiary of a last second NW trend-er. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 It was great. One of the few times I've been the beneficiary of a last second NW trend-er. Yeah, I'd rather forget the ones that screwed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Yeah, I'd rather forget the ones that screwed us. 11/30-12/1/2006 was pay-back, I guess. To this day, still my most hated storm ever. Alas, we were well rewarded later that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 01-02 is the top analog for this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 11/30-12/1/2006 was pay-back, I guess. To this day, still my most hated storm ever. Alas, we were well rewarded later that winter. One of my favorites to follow. Only managed like 6-7" here but nearly 16" a few counties away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 One of the ultimate last minute northwest trenders. That post-GHD system in Feb 2011 is another standout in that regard. Yup. Kind of amazing in this day and age we can have such busts. Forecast for both of those instances here was for not a flake LESS than 24 hours before the storm (in fact, thats why Feb 5, 2011 became known here as 4-6" of partly sunny). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Seems like I see a lot of humping in other parts of the forum that weak Ninos = dry/less snowy winters for the Midwest. That's great and all...but below normal precipitation totals don't always mean below normal snowfall. It's just one example...and a good one at that, but if one made a guess about season totals in the region, based solely on these precip departure maps...well, they'd be terribly wrong. I mean, STL had 66.0", SPI 52.1", MKE 82.7", MDW 82.9", and SBN 172.0" that season...but deep precip departures. 1977-78 DJF precip.png 1977-78 DJFM precip.png Couldn't agree more. With temps being that far below normal, the air can't hold as much water, thus meaning less precip but a good possibility of more snow than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I think the humping of dry/less snowy winters for the midwest is more a product of east coasters wishing a winter full of coastals Unlike the east coast, in this neck of the woods, below normal precip DOES NOT necessarily mean below normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Yup. Kind of amazing in this day and age we can have such busts. Forecast for both of those instances here was for not a flake LESS than 24 hours before the storm (in fact, thats why Feb 5, 2011 became known here as 4-6" of partly sunny). It'd be boring if there were no surprises. With the amount of models and model upgrades nowadays, it's getting more difficult to have spectacular busts on that level but there's always going to be some risk of it happening as it's impossible to account for everything in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Yup. Kind of amazing in this day and age we can have such busts. Forecast for both of those instances here was for not a flake LESS than 24 hours before the storm (in fact, thats why Feb 5, 2011 became known here as 4-6" of partly sunny). I remember working that night before a Mid to Noon shift, watching run after run of the RUC inch that system closer all night. By the time I got home that afternoon, it was heavy snow with visibility near 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 It'd be boring if there were no surprises. With the amount of models and model upgrades nowadays, it's getting more difficult to have spectacular busts on that level but there's always going to be some risk of it happening as it's impossible to account for everything in the atmosphere. I think conversely, we can track systems much longer with a decent accuracy now. So maybe less surprises but more system tracking and model discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I think conversely, we can track systems much longer with a decent accuracy now. So maybe less surprises but more system tracking and model discussion. It's amazing how much more accurate models are now, then when I first started tracking these on the web. I remember storms shifting 150 miles within 24 hours, this is pretty rare now days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 02-03 was a great year on this side of the state, ended up with 60.9" of snow. While we're at it... n0r_20021224_2330.png Remember how that thing kept trending northwest as it got closer. We had no snow on the ground, and it was the MORNING of Dec 24th and the news said "sorry we wont be having a white Christmas this year, but it will be cold". 12 hours later it was snowing and 30 hours later 6.8" of snow had fallen. That was one of my all-time favorite snow storms just because it felt like a Christmas miracle. So awesome staying up on Christmas eve and watching all that snow and blowing snow pile up. The funny thing was, the very next year on Christmas eve another surprise storm happened if I remember right. Only about 2" accumulated here because of marginal temperatures, but the northern suburbs got hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Couldn't agree more. With temps being that far below normal, the air can't hold as much water, thus meaning less precip but a good possibility of more snow than normal. This, plus colder temps = higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 It'd be boring if there were no surprises. With the amount of models and model upgrades nowadays, it's getting more difficult to have spectacular busts on that level but there's always going to be some risk of it happening as it's impossible to account for everything in the atmosphere. I agree. But as mentioned, the northwest trenders are historically the most common 'surprise'. Not so sure anymore as last winter, especially the latter half, we were bitten in the a** more frequently by southeast trenders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 looks like both the gfs and euro have backed off some on next weeks steroidal trough. More progressive, not as deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I remember working that night before a Mid to Noon shift, watching run after run of the RUC inch that system closer all night. By the time I got home that afternoon, it was heavy snow with visibility near 0. Yup...it was right around noon-time when the snow was so heavy it was near 0 visib, and that was without much wind, so you know it was pure snow (not blowing snow reducing the visib) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 That was one of my all-time favorite snow storms just because it felt like a Christmas miracle. So awesome staying up on Christmas eve and watching all that snow and blowing snow pile up. The funny thing was, the very next year on Christmas eve another surprise storm happened if I remember right. Only about 2" accumulated here because of marginal temperatures, but the northern suburbs got hammered. Yup...same thing, Snow from late Christmas Eve through Christmas Day (there was like a 2-hour burst Christmas Eve, then a few hour break, then the snow resumed for Christmas day). If Im remembering correctly I had around 3" while DTW had 1.8". The very next year (2004) had a heavy snowstorm (6-10") on Dec 23rd followed by bitter cold on Christmas, so we were in quite the stretch there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 looks like both the gfs and euro have backed off some on next weeks steroidal trough. More progressive, not as deep. They have, although they've been bouncing around quite a bit. At least a few ENS members for each model still get sub 516dm 500mb heights into the Great Lakes at some point between Sunday and Tuesday. I'm not sure if there will be synoptic snows anyways outside of a possible clipper (The Canadian has been hinting at a possible overrunning type event, but the GFS and Euro haven't shown that much out of this cool down), but it still wouldn't surprise me if the deeper trough works out and there are decent lake effect snows for a time. I'm not sure if we're allowed to post the Americanwx models here or not, but the 0z ECM ensembles still have a great look with ridging over western N. America to the north poll and a half hearted attempt at an Atlantic block too...it still tries to bridge the gap between the two about a week out. You usually get cold if there's ridging over the top like that, but we'll see just how cold it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 11/30-12/1/2006 was pay-back, I guess. To this day, still my most hated storm ever. Alas, we were well rewarded later that winter. That was an awesome storm where I was down in Oklahoma. I remember sitting in my severe and unusual weather class when NWS Norman put out the Winter Storm Warning, so we ended up having a winter weather discussion...ended up with about 7 inches of snow from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 12z GFS really backed off on brutal cold air with the final push early next week. Not as harsh as say the 18z run was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 12z Euro, Canadian and parallel GFS look much colder next week than the op GFS. The GFS ensembles look split on warmer like the op or colder like everything else. Good storm for WI and parts of MI on the Euro again early next week. Also: the 12z GEFS mean 850mb temps are 0C or colder over essentially all of the Great Lakes from this weekend through the end of the run, which seems impressive for the first half of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 The 12z Euro takes a clipper through downtown Chicago at 168hours+. I suppose this is some sort of a signal for some winter storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Good lord, the 18z GFS brings down 850mb temps to -20 deg C next Tuesday. That is beyond crazy for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Good lord, the 18z GFS brings down 850mb temps to -20 deg C next Tuesday. That is beyond crazy for this time of year. +1 bring it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 +1 bring it..... I hadn't seen you post in awhile. If it's going to be this cold in November, it better snow. Otherwise, you can keep your cold in Royerton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I hadn't seen you post in awhile. If it's going to be this cold in November, it better snow. Otherwise, you can keep your cold in Royerton. hahaha, fair enough..... we moved in my mom this past year, 83 yo but got all her "belongings"...our garage is swamped....im looking at next week and thinking.. ugh ugh, lets get the garage cleared so we can be prepared.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Good lord, the 18z GFS brings down 850mb temps to -20 deg C next Tuesday. That is beyond crazy for this time of year. Impressive. Possible records being tested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Snow chances verbatum are very blah, but with a cold shot as we head towards mid-November is becoming almost imminent. Have to hope it produces some snow (via clippers or lakes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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