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Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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So, while I was perusing Facebook today, I came upon an article, which for some reason, I can't post the link, but the article was talking about what the folks at Wx Bell, or Weather Bell, which ever one it is, thought that this winter was going to be bad, for the Great Lakes, Northeast, and what not. 

 

Any thoughts? Or, perhaps someone can find their predictions.

 

I have heard that it's more of toss up for this region, but I found the article interesting all the same.

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In general.....

 

temps look to get above hourly averages (barely) for maybe 24 hours this weekend before diving back below average...

 

monthly temp departures should be pretty solid below average by the end of the month if the models verify for the last week of November....

 

point being...until something changes in the pattern I will not trust any long range forecast of above average temps lasting more than 72 hours...they seem to be 0 for their last 100 in that category dating back to last fall. 

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0z GFS trending hard towards the last two Euro runs...tries to pump the ridge along the west coast day 5/6 but now is bringing down a fairly strong wave through BC/pac NW which flattens the ridge and tries to develops a sfc low along the leading edge of the next arctic air push with advection snows in the plains. Not fully Euro like but a for sure step in that direction. 

 

Good way to see the changes is compare this run to the 12z GFS valid 6z Weds of next week. 

 

Also a nice clipper on Weds around here but pretty moisture starved. 

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GEM keeps temps below average for the whole run after this weekend's system.....

 

also dumps 2+ plus over central iowa and a foot plus through N IL (through the whole run)......

 

That'll do.  Already been a November to remember.  Might as well add in a Turkey week blizzard for some icing on the cake.  :sled:

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That'll do.  Already been a November to remember.  Might as well add in a Turkey week blizzard for some icing on the cake.  :sled:

 

 

haha...I'm supposed to be heading your way out to the farm for next Saturday/sunday to have turkey with the in-laws....we will have to see how the weather pans out though....Not a big fan of hwy 20's hills when things get icey...

 

 

 

fairly nice baroclinic zone the entire run keeping us on the cold/snowy side

 

that baro zone is a familiar sight from last year....kinda hoping for a bigger dog....but the baro nearby is a nice consolation prize...

 

and yeah...sure is looking like cold is the way to go after this weekend....what a crazy "fall" this has been

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These op model runs are impressively cold as they've been many times this month. The GFS ensembles are higher on a nice ridge developing into AK/western Canada than the Euro ensembles, which may ultimately determine how cold we can get late next week. The cold is there if the jet buckles though either way.

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12/14 redux

 

winter or 2013-2015...

 

 

 

Models are really struggling past 4-5 days right now. The Euro is all over the board with what may transpire next Wed-Thu.

 

yeah...WPC pulling out hairs lol...granted this doesn't include this mornings suite...but chaos remains as you mentioned...

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

1056 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VALID 12Z MON NOV 24 2014 - 12Z FRI NOV 28 2014

...OVERVIEW...

GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF

FCST UNCERTAINTY WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC.  THERE ARE

STILL MEANINGFUL DIFFS IN HOW FLOW WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR 150W

WILL SEPARATE AROUND DAY 4 TUE... WHICH IMPACTS DOWNSTREAM DETAILS

THEREAFTER... ALONG WITH HOW UPSTREAM NRN PAC ENERGY WILL INTERACT

WITH THE UPR LOW/TROUGH THAT IS LEFT BEHIND AFTER THE SEPARATION

OCCURS.  THUS FCST CONFIDENCE DECREASES FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER

REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG SOLNS INTO TUE.  TRENDS THAT ARE

EVIDENT OVER THE PAST DAY ARE SUGGESTING SOMEWHAT LONGER

PERSISTENCE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE/ERN CONUS TROUGH MEAN PATTERN.

...GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD ORIGINATING FROM ERN PAC TROUGH SEPARATION

ARRIVES INTO WRN NOAM BY EARLY DAY 5 WED WITH SPAGHETTI PLOTS

ALREADY SHOWING A FULL RANGE OF SOLNS FROM A STRONG RIDGE TO FLAT

SHRTWV TROUGH OVER THE NWRN CONUS.  RECENT TRENDS OF MOST

OPERATIONAL MODELS ASIDE FROM THE UKMET NOW LEAN TOWARD

MAINTAINING A STRONGER WEST COAST RIDGE INTO WED WITH LESS SHRTWV

ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST... WHICH IS A SCENARIO

THAT HAD BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED IN PRIOR GFS/GEFS

GUIDANCE.  SUCH A SOLN IS NOT UNREASONABLE GIVEN RECENT

TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE ERN NOAM TROUGH/ATLC RIDGE PATTERN

THOUGH OTHER PATHS TO THE FAVORED MEAN PATTERN WERE QUITE POSSIBLE

AS WELL.  BESIDES THE WIDE ENSEMBLE SPREAD FROM THE ERN PAC INTO

THE CONUS DAYS 5-7... THE LACK OF STABILITY IN THE FCST IS MORE

SIMPLY ILLUSTRATED BY GFS/ECMWF FCSTS VALID WED-THU WITH THE 00Z

GFS SHOWING SOME SIMILARITIES TO YDAYS 12Z ECMWF WHILE THE 00Z

ECMWF IS MORE SIMILAR TO YDAYS 12Z GFS.  THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE

ERN PAC UPR LOW INTO WED-THU IN THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOT WELL

SUPPORTED FROM MOST OTHER GUIDANCE THOUGH.  ONCE UPSTREAM NRN PAC

FLOW COMES INTO THE PICTURE... THE MOST AGREEABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS

SUFFICIENT PROGRESSION TO PUSH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TOWARD

THE WEST COAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH TIMING PERHAPS MORE

TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF MEAN VERSUS LATEST GEFS MEANS.

YET TO BE RESOLVED ISSUES UPSTREAM LEAD TO UNCERTAINTIES IN SOME

IMPORTANT SHRTWV DETAILS WITHIN THE AMPLIFIED ERN TROUGH AFTER THE

DEPARTURE OF THE STRONG UPR GRTLKS/SERN CANADA STORM.  ONE FCST

ISSUE INVOLVES WAVINESS ALONG THE SFC FRONT REACHING THE WRN ATLC

AFTER TUE... WITH THE 00Z ECMWF IN THE WRN HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE

SPREAD BUT RECENT GFS/PARALLEL GFS RUNS MORE TOWARD THE ERN HALF.

BEHIND THIS FRONT SOLNS VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH A SFC WAVE/FRONT

THAT MAY AFFECT THE CNTRL-ERN CONUS WITH DEPENDENCE ON PAC ENERGY

ROUNDING THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND FLOW FROM CANADA.  PREFER A

CONSERVATIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH UNTIL OPERATIONAL RUNS AND

INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGIN TO EXHIBIT SOME DEGREE OF

CONVERGENCE.

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I'm not sure that any of us will pull off anything "substantial" for next Wed-Thu, but some snow seems like a decent bet. Subject to change of course.  :whistle:

 

Looking out into the longer ranges: 12z GEFS are pretty warm starting next Saturday and through the end of the run. 0z EPS on board with this scenario as well. Though today's GEFS have moved that scenario up a couple of days. Still, the signal has been consistent for the past few days on the ensemble guidance. Only plus is that Canada fills up with vodka. Looks like a La Nina. :lol:

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I'm not sure that any of us will pull off anything "substantial" for next Wed-Thu, but some snow seems like a decent bet. Subject to change of course.  :whistle:

 

Looking out into the longer ranges: 12z GEFS are pretty warm starting next Saturday and through the end of the run. 0z EPS on board with this scenario as well. Though today's GEFS have moved that scenario up a couple of days. Still, the signal has been consistent for the past few days on the ensemble guidance. Only plus is that Canada fills up with vodka. Looks like a La Nina. :lol:

 

 

 

i'm done falling for the medium range warmups and agree on the wed-thu period for some mood snow

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i'm done falling for the medium range warmups and agree on the wed-thu period for some mood snow

 

Someone posted a link to a paper that explained how long-med range models have appears to become progressively worse in the long range, they tend to flatten the jetstream out and end up failing to verify.

 

Not because I'm a weenie... But because of recent history, going with anything other than below normal this winter will end up busting.

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i'm done falling for the medium range warmups

 

I think it has legs. At some point, there has to be a little relaxation period. But like I said, Canada is also filling up with cold during that time. Probably won't be long thereafter that we start tapping some of it.

 

EDIT: and I can see some may have mis-interpreted my post. Not saying warm winter enroute. Just saying I think we start off December a little warm.

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one of the weakest 240 hr euro snowfall runs I've seen on wxbell since the beginning of November.  Outside the upper peninsula, its' basically light noise scattered around the subforum.

 

ggem is a little better, (not for my area), but show moderate snow north of I-80.

 

Still think someone gets clocked between the miss river and the east coast later next week.  Then we all warm up and wait for new blocking and a re-load...hopefully unleashing right before the holidays.  

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Nice torch on the 18z GFS.

 

First winter I'm not living and dying on each model run. Whatever will be will be. Interesting wx (or at least the threat of interesting wx) will come.

I'm thinking that we go into a period in which the cold relaxes, sort of like December 1993 and 1996. Unfortunately, both were lousy until Christmas Eve meaning the Christmas season wasn't all that snowy. Christmas Eve 1996 had an epic lake effect storm in Kitchener, though. Must have dropped about a foot. Was the best Christmas Eve ever.  Christmas 1993 had an epic Siberian Express.

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