buckeye Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 whatever, he asked, I answered. no question mark in my post....but thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Bickering a week out. This storm is gonna be a disappointment.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 So, while I was perusing Facebook today, I came upon an article, which for some reason, I can't post the link, but the article was talking about what the folks at Wx Bell, or Weather Bell, which ever one it is, thought that this winter was going to be bad, for the Great Lakes, Northeast, and what not. Any thoughts? Or, perhaps someone can find their predictions. I have heard that it's more of toss up for this region, but I found the article interesting all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 In general..... temps look to get above hourly averages (barely) for maybe 24 hours this weekend before diving back below average... monthly temp departures should be pretty solid below average by the end of the month if the models verify for the last week of November.... point being...until something changes in the pattern I will not trust any long range forecast of above average temps lasting more than 72 hours...they seem to be 0 for their last 100 in that category dating back to last fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 .... pin this on your prison cell wall... ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png for the Chicago-Laf crowd: ^^^This or the 12z GGEM run from yesterday would be nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 0z GFS trending hard towards the last two Euro runs...tries to pump the ridge along the west coast day 5/6 but now is bringing down a fairly strong wave through BC/pac NW which flattens the ridge and tries to develops a sfc low along the leading edge of the next arctic air push with advection snows in the plains. Not fully Euro like but a for sure step in that direction. Good way to see the changes is compare this run to the 12z GFS valid 6z Weds of next week. Also a nice clipper on Weds around here but pretty moisture starved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 GFS then opens up the flood gates day 8-10 with very cold air coming down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 GEM keeps temps below average for the whole run after this weekend's system..... also dumps 2+ plus over central iowa and a foot plus through N IL (through the whole run)...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 GEM keeps temps below average for the whole run after this weekend's system..... also dumps 2+ plus over central iowa and a foot plus through N IL (through the whole run)...... That'll do. Already been a November to remember. Might as well add in a Turkey week blizzard for some icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 GEM keeps temps below average for the whole run after this weekend's system..... also dumps 2+ plus over central iowa and a foot plus through N IL (through the whole run)...... fairly nice baroclinic zone the entire run keeping us on the cold/snowy side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 fairly nice baroclinic zone the entire run keeping us on the cold/snowy side I like the little clipper that GEM shows for northern IL on Thanksgiving. That'd be pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 That'll do. Already been a November to remember. Might as well add in a Turkey week blizzard for some icing on the cake. haha...I'm supposed to be heading your way out to the farm for next Saturday/sunday to have turkey with the in-laws....we will have to see how the weather pans out though....Not a big fan of hwy 20's hills when things get icey... fairly nice baroclinic zone the entire run keeping us on the cold/snowy side that baro zone is a familiar sight from last year....kinda hoping for a bigger dog....but the baro nearby is a nice consolation prize... and yeah...sure is looking like cold is the way to go after this weekend....what a crazy "fall" this has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 These op model runs are impressively cold as they've been many times this month. The GFS ensembles are higher on a nice ridge developing into AK/western Canada than the Euro ensembles, which may ultimately determine how cold we can get late next week. The cold is there if the jet buckles though either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Massive flip flop by the 00z Euro in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 zzzzzzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 clipperish/baro-zone snows seems to be the mold the models wish to choose for next week the last few runs... clipper doesn't look moisture starved fwiw at this juncture and.... turkey balls.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 clipperish/baro-zone snows seems to be the mold the models wish to choose for next week the last few runs... clipper doesn't look moisture starved fwiw at this juncture and.... turkey balls.... USA_TMP_850mb_144 11 21.gif 12/14 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Models are really struggling past 4-5 days right now. The Euro is all over the board with what may transpire next Wed-Thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 12/14 redux winter or 2013-2015... Models are really struggling past 4-5 days right now. The Euro is all over the board with what may transpire next Wed-Thu. yeah...WPC pulling out hairs lol...granted this doesn't include this mornings suite...but chaos remains as you mentioned... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1056 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 VALID 12Z MON NOV 24 2014 - 12Z FRI NOV 28 2014 ...OVERVIEW... GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FCST UNCERTAINTY WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC. THERE ARE STILL MEANINGFUL DIFFS IN HOW FLOW WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR 150W WILL SEPARATE AROUND DAY 4 TUE... WHICH IMPACTS DOWNSTREAM DETAILS THEREAFTER... ALONG WITH HOW UPSTREAM NRN PAC ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE UPR LOW/TROUGH THAT IS LEFT BEHIND AFTER THE SEPARATION OCCURS. THUS FCST CONFIDENCE DECREASES FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG SOLNS INTO TUE. TRENDS THAT ARE EVIDENT OVER THE PAST DAY ARE SUGGESTING SOMEWHAT LONGER PERSISTENCE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE/ERN CONUS TROUGH MEAN PATTERN. ...GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES... MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD ORIGINATING FROM ERN PAC TROUGH SEPARATION ARRIVES INTO WRN NOAM BY EARLY DAY 5 WED WITH SPAGHETTI PLOTS ALREADY SHOWING A FULL RANGE OF SOLNS FROM A STRONG RIDGE TO FLAT SHRTWV TROUGH OVER THE NWRN CONUS. RECENT TRENDS OF MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS ASIDE FROM THE UKMET NOW LEAN TOWARD MAINTAINING A STRONGER WEST COAST RIDGE INTO WED WITH LESS SHRTWV ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST... WHICH IS A SCENARIO THAT HAD BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED IN PRIOR GFS/GEFS GUIDANCE. SUCH A SOLN IS NOT UNREASONABLE GIVEN RECENT TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE ERN NOAM TROUGH/ATLC RIDGE PATTERN THOUGH OTHER PATHS TO THE FAVORED MEAN PATTERN WERE QUITE POSSIBLE AS WELL. BESIDES THE WIDE ENSEMBLE SPREAD FROM THE ERN PAC INTO THE CONUS DAYS 5-7... THE LACK OF STABILITY IN THE FCST IS MORE SIMPLY ILLUSTRATED BY GFS/ECMWF FCSTS VALID WED-THU WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING SOME SIMILARITIES TO YDAYS 12Z ECMWF WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE SIMILAR TO YDAYS 12Z GFS. THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE ERN PAC UPR LOW INTO WED-THU IN THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOT WELL SUPPORTED FROM MOST OTHER GUIDANCE THOUGH. ONCE UPSTREAM NRN PAC FLOW COMES INTO THE PICTURE... THE MOST AGREEABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SUFFICIENT PROGRESSION TO PUSH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TOWARD THE WEST COAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH TIMING PERHAPS MORE TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF MEAN VERSUS LATEST GEFS MEANS. YET TO BE RESOLVED ISSUES UPSTREAM LEAD TO UNCERTAINTIES IN SOME IMPORTANT SHRTWV DETAILS WITHIN THE AMPLIFIED ERN TROUGH AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRONG UPR GRTLKS/SERN CANADA STORM. ONE FCST ISSUE INVOLVES WAVINESS ALONG THE SFC FRONT REACHING THE WRN ATLC AFTER TUE... WITH THE 00Z ECMWF IN THE WRN HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD BUT RECENT GFS/PARALLEL GFS RUNS MORE TOWARD THE ERN HALF. BEHIND THIS FRONT SOLNS VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH A SFC WAVE/FRONT THAT MAY AFFECT THE CNTRL-ERN CONUS WITH DEPENDENCE ON PAC ENERGY ROUNDING THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND FLOW FROM CANADA. PREFER A CONSERVATIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH UNTIL OPERATIONAL RUNS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGIN TO EXHIBIT SOME DEGREE OF CONVERGENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Models are really struggling past 4-5 days right now. The Euro is all over the board with what may transpire next Wed-Thu. Yeah, long range is prone to big changes anyway and I have even less faith than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I'm not sure that any of us will pull off anything "substantial" for next Wed-Thu, but some snow seems like a decent bet. Subject to change of course. Looking out into the longer ranges: 12z GEFS are pretty warm starting next Saturday and through the end of the run. 0z EPS on board with this scenario as well. Though today's GEFS have moved that scenario up a couple of days. Still, the signal has been consistent for the past few days on the ensemble guidance. Only plus is that Canada fills up with vodka. Looks like a La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I'm not sure that any of us will pull off anything "substantial" for next Wed-Thu, but some snow seems like a decent bet. Subject to change of course. Looking out into the longer ranges: 12z GEFS are pretty warm starting next Saturday and through the end of the run. 0z EPS on board with this scenario as well. Though today's GEFS have moved that scenario up a couple of days. Still, the signal has been consistent for the past few days on the ensemble guidance. Only plus is that Canada fills up with vodka. Looks like a La Nina. i'm done falling for the medium range warmups and agree on the wed-thu period for some mood snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 i'm done falling for the medium range warmups and agree on the wed-thu period for some mood snow Someone posted a link to a paper that explained how long-med range models have appears to become progressively worse in the long range, they tend to flatten the jetstream out and end up failing to verify. Not because I'm a weenie... But because of recent history, going with anything other than below normal this winter will end up busting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 i'm done falling for the medium range warmups and agree on the wed-thu period for some mood snow +1 Fool me once shame on you, fool me all last winter and starting again this year? Shane on me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 i'm done falling for the medium range warmups I think it has legs. At some point, there has to be a little relaxation period. But like I said, Canada is also filling up with cold during that time. Probably won't be long thereafter that we start tapping some of it. EDIT: and I can see some may have mis-interpreted my post. Not saying warm winter enroute. Just saying I think we start off December a little warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 one of the weakest 240 hr euro snowfall runs I've seen on wxbell since the beginning of November. Outside the upper peninsula, its' basically light noise scattered around the subforum. ggem is a little better, (not for my area), but show moderate snow north of I-80. Still think someone gets clocked between the miss river and the east coast later next week. Then we all warm up and wait for new blocking and a re-load...hopefully unleashing right before the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Nice torch on the 18z GFS. First winter I'm not living and dying on each model run. Whatever will be will be. Interesting wx (or at least the threat of interesting wx) will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Nice torch on the 18z GFS. First winter I'm not living and dying on each model run. Whatever will be will be. Interesting wx (or at least the threat of interesting wx) will come. I'm thinking that we go into a period in which the cold relaxes, sort of like December 1993 and 1996. Unfortunately, both were lousy until Christmas Eve meaning the Christmas season wasn't all that snowy. Christmas Eve 1996 had an epic lake effect storm in Kitchener, though. Must have dropped about a foot. Was the best Christmas Eve ever. Christmas 1993 had an epic Siberian Express. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 And it continues....GFS and parallel GFS look like they flipped back to the cold side and look more GEM like with the Weds clipper and more impressive arctic cold after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 To give you an idea of what the GGEM sees for snowfall in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.