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Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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The Euro weeklies don't look particularly promising for December. I'd rather a cold December with snow on the ground for the Christmas season. Would be ironic if Buffalo had bare ground by December 1st!

I dont even know what they show but I can tell you that many here have said their performance has not been good.

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Impressive 0z GFS run with regards to the cold shots after this weekend storm..

 

Brings down 850's to -12 deg C by early week then pumps up the ridge again along the west coast up into western Canada allowing for a big dump of arctic air to spill down....wondering if we get our last semi zonal wave to ride the frontal zone from the pac NW and do something on the leading edge of this cold

 

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Although it's a long way off, the 8-10 day 11/20 0z Euro makes sense to me. If you look at the 168hr total snow fall map you will see snow in the northern portions of the sub forum with little or no snow over the southern part.  Any system after 168 should favor what the euro is showing.  I kind of laughed this morning when I saw the Euro dump 3 storms very close to me, that's not realistic.

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:snowing:  :santa:  :weenie: ....

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
510 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...WINTER RETURNS AS THE
ECMWF STREAKS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH THE
HINT OF ANOTHER POWERFUL CYCLONE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE MIDWEST
HEADING INTO THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. STAY TUNED!

HAASE

 

pin this on your prison cell wall...

 

post-5865-0-75989100-1416490161_thumb.pn

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You guys looking at late night porn, eh? Just keep telling me that the Euro is pumping out the storms and I'll be happy.

It's too early for me to be sitting up late waiting on model runs lol.

Definitely looks like the prime time period to watch. A few more runs like that and the snowfall maps will start irresponsibly appearing on facebook starting the public meltdown.

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really hard to ignore how consistent euro is on showing a significant storm after Thanksgiving. It hasn't backed off at all. Gfs seems to be out to lunch. This is euro's golden time. It was the only model I think to pick up on the GHD blizzard over a week out when no other models agreed with it. it makes sense to have a big storm with that tight baroclinic zone stretching across the US. Energy from the NW looks to ride right along that and spin up a strong low pressure center. gem yesterday was showing a big overrunning snow event. the extent of that cold air and position of high pressure system will be crucial to decide how far south or how far north this track ends up if the storm verifies. looks like models are showing some energy before the big storm that could bring parts of the Midwest some snow on the developing baroclinic zone.

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It's too early for me to be sitting up late waiting on model runs lol.

Definitely looks like the prime time period to watch. A few more runs like that and the snowfall maps will start irresponsibly appearing on facebook starting the public meltdown.

 

 

Pshhh, one group already had the Facebook post with the possibility posted yesterday. I give it two days. They'll have a snowfall map tossed in by the weekend. Gotta get those clicks don't you know...

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