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Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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Man, Katy bar the door if we get the northern stream to phase a little quicker.  The southern stream wave looks pretty energetic and we'd see even quicker/earlier deepening than this.  :weenie:

 

 

:lmao:

 

WPC's latest thoughts....

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

1056 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

VALID 12Z FRI NOV 21 2014 - 12Z TUE NOV 25 2014

...OVERVIEW...

A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FLATTER MEAN FLOW DURING THE FIRST HALF OF

THE PERIOD... BRINGING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS TO THE ERN

STATES... WILL BE REPLACED BY AN AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGH THAT SHOULD

REACH A GRTLKS TO SRN PLAINS ORIENTATION AS OF DAY 7 NEXT TUE.  AT

THAT TIME A STRENGTHENING UPSTREAM RIDGE SHOULD BE POISED TO ENTER

THE WRN CONUS.  THIS PATTERN/EVOLUTION WILL FAVOR HEAVIEST PCPN

OVER THE NORTHWEST AND FROM THE GULF COAST/SRN PLAINS NEWD.  MOST

ASPECTS OF THE LARGE SCALE FCST DISPLAY AVG TO ABOVE AVG AGREEMENT

BUT SOME SIGNIFICANT DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES EXIST.

...MODEL EVALUATION/WPC PREFERENCES...

THE DOMINANT ITEM OF INTEREST DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE

EXACTLY HOW NRN PAC ENERGY/LEADING SFC SYSTEM ENTERING THE

NORTHWEST FRI-SAT ULTIMATELY INTERACTS WITH A LEADING SYSTEM

TRACKING FROM THE GRTBASIN/SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS/GRTLKS.  AT

THE MOMENT THERE IS A SPLIT AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS REGARDING

WHETHER THE LEADING SYSTEM EJECTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE INCOMING

AMPLIFYING PAC ENERGY OR HOLDS BACK OVER THE GRTLKS AND SEES

GREATER INFLUENCE FROM THE UPSTREAM ENERGY.  RECENT GFS/GFS

PARALLEL RUNS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE FORMER SCENARIO... YIELDING A

WEAKER AND SOMEWHAT MORE DISJOINTED OVERALL SFC EVOLUTION THAN

ECMWF RUNS/00Z UKMET WHICH FOLLOW THE LATTER IDEA.  SUCH MEDIUM TO

SMALLER SCALE DETAIL ISSUES CAN SOMETIMES TAKE INTO THE SHORT

RANGE TIME FRAME TO BE RESOLVED SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO COMMIT FULLY

TO ONE CLUSTER YET.  HOWEVER PREFER TO LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARD A MORE

CONSOLIDATED SFC SYSTEM AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z GEFS/ECMWF/CMC

ENSEMBLE MEANS... WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN

OFFERING A DEGREE OF SUPPORT FOR SLOWER TIMING OF INITIAL SWRN

CONUS ENERGY.  SLOWER TRENDS OF 06Z GFS/GFS PARALLEL RUNS VS THEIR

00Z COUNTERPARTS GO ALONG WITH THIS IDEA.  IF THE TWO STREAMS

INTERACT JUST RIGHT THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR A VERY DEEP

STORM SO WOULD FAVOR DEPTH A FEW MB DEEPER THAN THE MEANS AS A

STARTING POINT.  WILL AWAIT BETTER OPERATIONAL AGREEMENT BEFORE

FURTHER DEEPENING THE SYSTEM.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

  MEANWHILE THE COMBINATION OF VIGOROUS

DYNAMICS ALOFT AND LEADING GULF INFLOW WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN

EPISODE OF HVY RNFL OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND ALONG THE

GULF COAST.  SOME CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.

CONSULT SPC OUTLOOKS FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING SEVERE THREATS.

A PORTION OF THIS MSTR WILL LIKELY STREAM NEWD AS PLAINS/GRTLKS

LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES... WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW/WIND PSBL ON THE

COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

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i think something was lost in my post, tone-wise

 

my response wasn't meant to be jerkish....just thought you were mobile wasn't able to see the run....

 

in general it looks like heights off the pac coast are higher than previous runs...strengthening the ridge a little more and allowing for a little more cold air interaction...

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Was reading about the 1880-1881 winter in this article..

http://www.candgnews.com/news/looking-back-winter-1880-1881

Patterns seem to be very similar in many ways

First we break the snow record from 1880-81, now we kick off the very next winter by breaking a record low from the historic November 1880 cold snap. Two 1880-81s in a row though? No way! :lol:

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my response wasn't meant to be jerkish....just thought you were mobile wasn't able to see the run....

 

in general it looks like heights off the pac coast are higher than previous runs...strengthening the ridge a little more and allowing for a little more cold air interaction...

 

 

i know :)

 

and I just want to see a bomb

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Buckeye comments on a 240 hr euro threat.  Alek retorts:

 

it's always cute when buckeye sniffs out a storm for his backyard

 

 

24 hours later.....the 240 hr euro threat is in his back yard.  A giddy Alek responds: 

 

 

it's a decent medium range window, we'll at least have some kind of remnant cold airmass in the wake of the early week low

 

 

If hypocrisy makes the weenie, you're a foot long chili-loaded coney running thru the garden.

 

 

 

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Buckeye comments on a 240 hr euro threat.  Alek retorts:

 

 

 

24 hours later.....the 240 hr euro threat is in his back yard.  A giddy Alek responds: 

 

 

 

 

If hypocrisy makes the weenie, you're a foot long chili-loaded coney running thru the garden.

 

 

 

 

 

you're taking this too serious

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