Hoosier Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 And we're shocked? These are the two bomb-iest models in the land. Yeah but having the Euro on their side helps. That being said, I'm not betting on any particular scenario yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Man, Katy bar the door if we get the northern stream to phase a little quicker. The southern stream wave looks pretty energetic and we'd see even quicker/earlier deepening than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Man, Katy bar the door if we get the northern stream to phase a little quicker. The southern stream wave looks pretty energetic and we'd see even quicker/earlier deepening than this. WPC's latest thoughts.... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1056 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014 VALID 12Z FRI NOV 21 2014 - 12Z TUE NOV 25 2014 ...OVERVIEW... A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FLATTER MEAN FLOW DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD... BRINGING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS TO THE ERN STATES... WILL BE REPLACED BY AN AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGH THAT SHOULD REACH A GRTLKS TO SRN PLAINS ORIENTATION AS OF DAY 7 NEXT TUE. AT THAT TIME A STRENGTHENING UPSTREAM RIDGE SHOULD BE POISED TO ENTER THE WRN CONUS. THIS PATTERN/EVOLUTION WILL FAVOR HEAVIEST PCPN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND FROM THE GULF COAST/SRN PLAINS NEWD. MOST ASPECTS OF THE LARGE SCALE FCST DISPLAY AVG TO ABOVE AVG AGREEMENT BUT SOME SIGNIFICANT DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES EXIST. ...MODEL EVALUATION/WPC PREFERENCES... THE DOMINANT ITEM OF INTEREST DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE EXACTLY HOW NRN PAC ENERGY/LEADING SFC SYSTEM ENTERING THE NORTHWEST FRI-SAT ULTIMATELY INTERACTS WITH A LEADING SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE GRTBASIN/SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS/GRTLKS. AT THE MOMENT THERE IS A SPLIT AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS REGARDING WHETHER THE LEADING SYSTEM EJECTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING PAC ENERGY OR HOLDS BACK OVER THE GRTLKS AND SEES GREATER INFLUENCE FROM THE UPSTREAM ENERGY. RECENT GFS/GFS PARALLEL RUNS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE FORMER SCENARIO... YIELDING A WEAKER AND SOMEWHAT MORE DISJOINTED OVERALL SFC EVOLUTION THAN ECMWF RUNS/00Z UKMET WHICH FOLLOW THE LATTER IDEA. SUCH MEDIUM TO SMALLER SCALE DETAIL ISSUES CAN SOMETIMES TAKE INTO THE SHORT RANGE TIME FRAME TO BE RESOLVED SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO COMMIT FULLY TO ONE CLUSTER YET. HOWEVER PREFER TO LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARD A MORE CONSOLIDATED SFC SYSTEM AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS... WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OFFERING A DEGREE OF SUPPORT FOR SLOWER TIMING OF INITIAL SWRN CONUS ENERGY. SLOWER TRENDS OF 06Z GFS/GFS PARALLEL RUNS VS THEIR 00Z COUNTERPARTS GO ALONG WITH THIS IDEA. IF THE TWO STREAMS INTERACT JUST RIGHT THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR A VERY DEEP STORM SO WOULD FAVOR DEPTH A FEW MB DEEPER THAN THE MEANS AS A STARTING POINT. WILL AWAIT BETTER OPERATIONAL AGREEMENT BEFORE FURTHER DEEPENING THE SYSTEM. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... MEANWHILE THE COMBINATION OF VIGOROUS DYNAMICS ALOFT AND LEADING GULF INFLOW WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN EPISODE OF HVY RNFL OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST. SOME CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. CONSULT SPC OUTLOOKS FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING SEVERE THREATS. A PORTION OF THIS MSTR WILL LIKELY STREAM NEWD AS PLAINS/GRTLKS LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES... WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW/WIND PSBL ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 12z Euro looks like it might not be as clean of a phase...or take a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Stepped off the gas a bit, "only" 988mb over RFD at 126 hours and the same pressure just SE of GRB at 132 hours. Whole thing looks a little slower to evolve. EDIT: it's back to the two wave idea I guess. 989mb low over STL at 138. Lots of moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 time to punt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 time to punt? Yeah, curtains. This one's over. No chance it goes back the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 time to punt? you be the judge.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 And now we have a 985mb low just northeast of LAF at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Yeah, curtains. This one's over. No chance it goes back the other way. i think something was lost in my post, tone-wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 The southern stream wave leaks out a little too far ahead on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 i think something was lost in my post, tone-wise Oh no, I was joking. Should've put a smiley in there I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 i think something was lost in my post, tone-wise my response wasn't meant to be jerkish....just thought you were mobile wasn't able to see the run.... in general it looks like heights off the pac coast are higher than previous runs...strengthening the ridge a little more and allowing for a little more cold air interaction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Was reading about the 1880-1881 winter in this article.. http://www.candgnews.com/news/looking-back-winter-1880-1881 Patterns seem to be very similar in many ways First we break the snow record from 1880-81, now we kick off the very next winter by breaking a record low from the historic November 1880 cold snap. Two 1880-81s in a row though? No way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 my response wasn't meant to be jerkish....just thought you were mobile wasn't able to see the run.... in general it looks like heights off the pac coast are higher than previous runs...strengthening the ridge a little more and allowing for a little more cold air interaction... i know and I just want to see a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 The southern stream wave leaks out a little too far ahead on this run. Here's yesterday's 12z run vs. today 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 And in fantasy land...12z Euro trying to cook up a little something for Turkey Day. Though if it's anything, it'll most likely be a MSP special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 And in fantasy land...12z Euro trying to cook up a little something for Turkey Day. Though if it's anything, it'll most likely be a MSP special... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 If there were only op Euro maps past 240 hours...might be an A- fantasy storm for a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 it's a decent medium range window, we'll at least have some kind of remnant cold airmass in the wake of the early week low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 If there were only op Euro maps past 240 hours...might be an A- fantasy storm for a few. Nonzero chance we'd get pinged to death by the way that looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Nonzero chance we'd get pinged to death by the way that looks. 50/50 shot at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Buckeye comments on a 240 hr euro threat. Alek retorts: it's always cute when buckeye sniffs out a storm for his backyard 24 hours later.....the 240 hr euro threat is in his back yard. A giddy Alek responds: it's a decent medium range window, we'll at least have some kind of remnant cold airmass in the wake of the early week low If hypocrisy makes the weenie, you're a foot long chili-loaded coney running thru the garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Buckeye comments on a 240 hr euro threat. Alek retorts: 24 hours later.....the 240 hr euro threat is in his back yard. A giddy Alek responds: If hypocrisy makes the weenie, you're a foot long chili-loaded coney running thru the garden. you're taking this too serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 btw, sorry your storm vanished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 btw, sorry your storm vanished c'mon, I'm just being cute...I forgot the smiley face. As far as my storm disappearing, I don't ever recall a 240 hr storm that didn't disappear....and I've been weenie-tracking these things for something like 18 years!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 FWIW, 12z Euro ensembles don't hate the day 9-10-11 storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 00z GFS may baby step in the right direction in terms of a big bomb. Looks like a slightly quicker phase may be in the works so far per this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 00z GFS may baby step in the right direction in terms of a big bomb. Looks like a slightly quicker phase may be in the works so far per this run. Noticed that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Well something interesting has to happen with these kind of dynamics in place: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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