Hoosier Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Looks like a tongue of upper 50/low 60 dews make it up into Indiana ahead of the bombing low. Doesn't sound all that impressive verbatim, but that's a huge surge of moisture over what is now an arctic wasteland. Big change on the way for folks who end up in the warm sector of this beast. That would probably be good enough with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 love big fall lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 little to no chance of snow with this one, i'm just ready to get out of this pattern +1 Rain on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Decade cold followed by the bomb.... Seems like an interesting winter is brewing !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 This first system late this weekend into early next week def has my attention from a severe weather perspective. Incredible dynamics and wind fields. Wouldn't take much instability for a substantial severe weather event. I love seeing a nice broad warm sector and a pretty large LLJ core. Like you guys have stated, most of us in this forum wouldn't see snow from this system but it could set up something interesting for the period around Thanksgiving or after as more energy reloads and a colder air mass will be further south for it to take advantage of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 snowpack, frozen ground, and 1/2 inch+ QPF for the 23/24th system for the whole subforum....should be a fun one to track and follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 snowpack, frozen ground, and 1/2 inch+ QPF for the 23/24th system for the whole subforum....should be a fun one to track and follow Man if only that were a snowstorm for us. lol. that would be fun. oh wishcasting. there could be some major flooding problems with frozen ground. There could be some wrap around snows with models showing a large occlusion happening and cold air wrapping around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Thing I'd wonder about is how extensively frozen the ground is at this point. It's been cold and will be cold for a while yet but not like we're in the middle of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Thing I'd wonder about is how extensively frozen the ground is at this point. It's been cold and will be cold for a while yet but not like we're in the middle of winter. I will spare the forum the image....but 4 inch depth temps are pretty far down...surface soil temps have to be a few degrees colder even.... EDIT: but a few sunny days could prolly warm things up faster since it is indeed still November, and not the heart of winter as you alluded to Belleville St. Claire 39.0 Big Bend Whiteside 31.8 Bondville Champaign 33.8 Brownstown Fayette 38.4 Carbondale Jackson 36.8 Champaign Champaign 34.4 DeKalb DeKalb 32.1 Dixon Springs Pope 35.6 Fairfield Wayne 34.6 Freeport Stephenson 32.6 Kilbourne Mason 32.7 Monmouth Warren 29.9 Olney Richland 34.9 Peoria Tazewell 32.1 Perry Pike 34.2 Rend Lake Jefferson 38.2 Springfield Sangamon 33.4 St. Charles Kane 31.3 Stelle Ford 31.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Thing I'd wonder about is how extensively frozen the ground is at this point. It's been cold and will be cold for a while yet but not like we're in the middle of winter. cold enough but we won't be talking about heavy enough of rains to really matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 For gun hunters (Wisconsin opens on Sat), going to want to bag something by closing time on Sunday...looks like a lot of fun the rest of the week with typhoon winds and Siberian cold... yum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Thing I'd wonder about is how extensively frozen the ground is at this point. It's been cold and will be cold for a while yet but not like we're in the middle of winter. Nothing frozen around here. The snow is wet on the bottom and slowly melting from the bottom up. My driveway starts to melt out any time the snow lets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Nothing frozen around here. The snow is wet on the bottom and slowly melting from the bottom up. My driveway starts to melt out any time the snow lets up. The snow seemed to melt a little here then froze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I gotta laugh at some of the output on the models for the weekend storm. I think the phrase too many cooks in the kitchen is applicable. Might be a while til things get sorted out but I know what outcome I'd want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 The Uncle looks 12z Euro-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 The Uncle looks 12z Euro-esque. So we now have the bombing solution vs. the clusterf*** that was the 00z GFS/P-GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 So we now have the bombing solution vs. the clusterf*** that was the 00z GFS/P-GFS. The 00z GGEM also was a cluster, but some of its runs have been more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Two pretty impressive cold shots on the GFS. One on the backside of that storm next week then another at day 10 right after Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Two pretty impressive cold shots on the GFS. One on the backside of that storm next week then another at day 10 right after Thanksgiving 12z Euro ensembles were basically on board with this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 So we now have the bombing solution vs. the clusterf*** that was the 00z GFS/P-GFS. The Ukie to the rescue. 979mb over WI/IL border, 500mb heights may suggest plenty of cold air to the north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 00z Euro is going to be big again I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 980 mb low just NE of Chicago at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 11/17 weeklies after current cold shot, we warm up briefly before that big storm, cool back down. After that, from week 2 taking us up to Xmas week it's a couple of small transient hits of cold in a generally above average temp regime for most of the country, disclaimer: I am neither a warminista nor take the weeklies as gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Looks like we might squeak out one day with above average temps on sunday....however, it will feel like an absolute torch compared to these single digit temps currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 GEFS are totally lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Was reading about the 1880-1881 winter in this article.. http://www.candgnews.com/news/looking-back-winter-1880-1881 Patterns seem to be very similar in many ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 lead energy in the circled area....with additional northern stream kicker energy still even further north and west off the grid on this view... lead energy sampling looks on target for about 00Z 21NOV model suite... timing will be very interesting as we progress imo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 12z UKMET maintains the bomb. We have a couple clear model camps now...the bomb/cleaner phase scenario by the UKMET/earlier ECMWF runs and the more sloppy scenario depicted by the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 and now the 12z GGEM went back to the bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 12z UKMET maintains the bomb. We have a couple clear model camps now...the bomb/cleaner phase scenario by the UKMET/earlier ECMWF runs and the more sloppy scenario depicted by the others. and now the 12z GGEM went back to the bomb. And we're shocked? These are the two bomb-iest models in the land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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