Gilbertfly Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 looking forward to tracking a decent system for the first time in what seems like forever agree....12Z GFS brings a 986 from Rockford to Geos next sunday...not a lot of cold air to work with and not much of an HP trailing it...but a week out, it's nice to see the potential via the models remain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 agree....12Z GFS brings a 986 from Rockford to Geos next sunday...not a lot of cold air to work with and not much of an HP trailing it...but a week out, it's nice to see the potential via the models remain little to no chance of snow with this one, i'm just ready to get out of this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 little to no chance of snow with this one, i'm just ready to get out of this pattern And into what? This looks like a mild SE quadrant warm pump, followed by a weak severe line, ushering in morning frozen puddles and maybe a dusting. The typical sh-t side of a storm scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Maybe a nuclear bomb run of the Euro incoming...988 mb in s MO at 144 hours with a sharp looking wave aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 973 mb near Green Bay at 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Maybe a nuclear bomb run of the Euro incoming...988 mb in s MO at 144 hours with a sharp looking wave aloft. At 168 looks like about 974mb N WI/UP MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 973 mb near Green Bay at 168 hours. Nuclear bomb it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 973 mb near Green Bay at 168 hours. noice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 And into what? This looks like a mild SE quadrant warm pump, followed by a weak severe line, ushering in morning frozen puddles and maybe a dusting. The typical sh-t side of a storm scenario. Yeah I think it might be a bit more interesting than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Yeah I think it might be a bit more interesting than this. For your backyard maybe... In general, this has been a near historic early winter scenario in the midwest. Snowing like crazy at my house.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 For your backyard maybe... In general, this has been a near historic early winter scenario in the midwest. Snowing like crazy at my house.... Yes and how many winters start on November 1st and go to April 15th without a single warm up? I would much rather have a volatile pattern where we catch a warm up or two especially this time of year because sometimes the big system passes to our south and we get crushed. This isn't me honking over severe weather prospects, if this was 973mb into Erie, I would be equally as excited because it is something interesting to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 973 mb near Green Bay at 168 hours. That should keep the maternity ward busy in the green bay area hospitals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Yes and how many winters start on November 1st and go to April 15th without a single warm up? I would much rather have a volatile pattern where we catch a warm up or two especially this time of year because sometimes the big system passes to our south and we get crushed. This isn't me honking over severe weather prospects, if this was 973mb into Erie, I would be equally as excited because it is something interesting to track. I can't be upset about the warmup... It's normal this time of year, but complaining about a Good pattern doesn't make sense. I could understand if we had a boring pacific flow for weeks on end, but this pattern now has been far from bad, for a weather fan. This upcoming storm will probably yield some wind and maybe a faux t-storm line... then back to a semi-pacific flow, maybe a bit of a trough... I'm just not seeing much to get all excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 It's cool to see a 972 mb low in northern Wisconsin, but this forum wouldn't see much more than rain/storms(could be interesting) followed by wind and cold. The lead southern wave has no cold air to work with when it turns the corner and lifts into the western lakes. All the cold is behind the trailing northern wave. Once the two waves phase the storm is well to the north and won't do us much good, snowwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 It's cool to see a 972 mb low in northern Wisconsin, but this forum wouldn't see much more than rain followed by wind and cold. The lead southern wave has no cold air to work with when it turns the corner and lifts into the western lakes. All the cold is behind the trailing northern wave. Once the two waves phase the storm is well to the north and won't do us much good, snowwise. The 972 mb aspect is interesting, no doubt... But its like buying a big engine and having no car to put it in. "Hey, I got a sweet turbo charged V8 engine, puts out 600hp!" "But..... It's in a crate" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 This is all about what gets someone interested. If you're only concerned about the weather in your area and couldn't care less about the meteorology, then I could see how the 12z Euro wouldn't be that exciting from a sensible weather perspective. There's a ton of model cycles to go before this arrives. Who knows if it will look like this by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Almost looks like a surface low hangs back after 168 hours on the Euro. Maybe someone can fill us in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Almost looks like a surface low hangs back after 168 hours on the Euro. Maybe someone can fill us in. I can't really find a sfc low but a 100kt jet at H5 coming around through CA/NV/AZ at 168hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 after that big ass low exits north east, the set up looks interesting leading up to Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Wow 975mb over eastern Iowa earlier on at 156hrs. Nice to see it bomb out earlier on instead of waiting until reaching Canada like what happens so many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 after that big ass low exits north east, the set up looks interesting leading up to Thanksgiving That's some really cold air in southern Canada at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Wow 975mb over eastern Iowa earlier on at 156hrs. Nice to see it bomb out earlier on instead of waiting until reaching Canada like what happens so many times. Not sure what it looks like further south but there'd have to be some really strong low level winds/WAA going on with that, not to mention explosive dynamics aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Not sure what it looks like further south but there'd have to be some really strong low level winds/WAA going on with that, not to mention explosive dynamics aloft. 65-70kts at 850 over eastern IL and much of IN at 150hrs lol. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 That's some really cold air in southern Canada at the end of the run. looks like a potential overrunning setting up with what looks like a low developing in the southern plains. (going from the crappy graphics maps, haven't checked wxbell yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 only the worst of weenies can't enjoy these monster lows because they don't bring snow to their backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 it's always cute when buckeye sniffs out a storm for his backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 65-70kts at 850 over eastern IL and much of IN at 150hrs lol. Nice. I don't know what CAPE/moisture is like but the crappy 144 hour map had a tongue of 8C 850 mb dewpoints in the MS Valley. You wouldn't need much with a setup like this as the forcing aloft would be pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 it's always cute when buckeye sniffs out a storm for his backyard looks like that would be a widespread overrunning....might even cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I don't know what CAPE/moisture is like but the crappy 144 hour map had a tongue of 8C 850 mb dewpoints in the MS Valley. You wouldn't need much with a setup like this as the forcing aloft would be pretty incredible. Looks like a tongue of upper 50/low 60 dews make it up into Indiana ahead of the bombing low. Doesn't sound all that impressive verbatim, but that's a huge surge of moisture over what is now an arctic wasteland. Big change on the way for folks who end up in the warm sector of this beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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