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Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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agree....12Z GFS brings a 986 from Rockford to Geos next sunday...not a lot of cold air to work with and not much of an HP trailing it...but a week out, it's nice to see the potential via the models remain

 

 

little to no chance of snow with this one, i'm just ready to get out of this pattern

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little to no chance of snow with this one, i'm just ready to get out of this pattern

 

And into what?

 

This looks like a mild SE quadrant warm pump, followed by a weak severe line, ushering in morning frozen puddles and maybe a dusting. The typical sh-t side of a storm scenario. 

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For your backyard maybe... In general, this has been a near historic early winter scenario in the midwest.

 

Snowing like crazy at my house....

Yes and how many winters start on November 1st and go to April 15th without a single warm up? I would much rather have a volatile pattern where we catch a warm up or two especially this time of year because sometimes the big system passes to our south and we get crushed. This isn't me honking over severe weather prospects, if this was 973mb into Erie, I would be equally as excited because it is something interesting to track. 

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Yes and how many winters start on November 1st and go to April 15th without a single warm up? I would much rather have a volatile pattern where we catch a warm up or two especially this time of year because sometimes the big system passes to our south and we get crushed. This isn't me honking over severe weather prospects, if this was 973mb into Erie, I would be equally as excited because it is something interesting to track. 

 

I can't be upset about the warmup... It's normal this time of year, but complaining about a Good pattern doesn't make sense.

 

I could understand if we had a boring pacific flow for weeks on end, but this pattern now has been far from bad, for a weather fan.

 

This upcoming storm will probably yield some wind and maybe a faux t-storm line... then back to a semi-pacific flow, maybe a bit of a trough... I'm just not seeing much to get all excited about.

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It's cool to see a 972 mb low in northern Wisconsin, but this forum wouldn't see much more than rain/storms(could be interesting) followed by wind and cold.  The lead southern wave has no cold air to work with when it turns the corner and lifts into the western lakes.  All the cold is behind the trailing northern wave.  Once the two waves phase the storm is well to the north and won't do us much good, snowwise.

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It's cool to see a 972 mb low in northern Wisconsin, but this forum wouldn't see much more than rain followed by wind and cold.  The lead southern wave has no cold air to work with when it turns the corner and lifts into the western lakes.  All the cold is behind the trailing northern wave.  Once the two waves phase the storm is well to the north and won't do us much good, snowwise.

 

The 972 mb aspect is interesting, no doubt... But its like buying a big engine and having no car to put it in.

 

"Hey, I got a sweet turbo charged V8 engine, puts out 600hp!"

 

"But..... It's in a crate"

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This is all about what gets someone interested.  If you're only concerned about the weather in your area and couldn't care less about the meteorology, then I could see how the 12z Euro wouldn't be that exciting from a sensible weather perspective.

 

There's a ton of model cycles to go before this arrives.  Who knows if it will look like this by then. 

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Wow 975mb over eastern Iowa earlier on at 156hrs.  Nice to see it bomb out earlier on instead of waiting until reaching Canada like what happens so many times.

 

Not sure what it looks like further south but there'd have to be some really strong low level winds/WAA going on with that, not to mention explosive dynamics aloft.

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65-70kts at 850 over eastern IL and much of IN at 150hrs lol.  Nice.

 

 

I don't know what CAPE/moisture is like but the crappy 144 hour map had a tongue of 8C 850 mb dewpoints in the MS Valley.  You wouldn't need much with a setup like this as the forcing aloft would be pretty incredible.

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I don't know what CAPE/moisture is like but the crappy 144 hour map had a tongue of 8C 850 mb dewpoints in the MS Valley.  You wouldn't need much with a setup like this as the forcing aloft would be pretty incredible.

 

 

Looks like a tongue of upper 50/low 60 dews make it up into Indiana ahead of the bombing low.  Doesn't sound all that impressive verbatim, but that's a huge surge of moisture over what is now an arctic wasteland.  Big change on the way for folks who end up in the warm sector of this beast.

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