michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 You're gonna have to get rid of it on the ECMWF too. Unless you're talking about the UP. Yesterdays 12z Euro had heavy snow here, the 00z had rain. Still all over the place. Climo would definitely favor a NW track but this is NOT a climo November. So who knows, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 12z op Euro highlights. Take it FWIW. Wednesday 11/19: clipper snows for WI, MI, and ON Saturday-Sunday 11/22-23: big cutter from the OK panhandle (1002mb) to just north of GRB (992mb) Sunday-Monday 11/23-24: wash, rinse, repeat...990mb in OK that goes overtop Chicago to MKG (985mb) and then APN (984mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 EURO is definitely the colder of the models with this Thanksgiving week storm. DLL would cash in on some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 12z op Euro highlights. Take it FWIW. Wednesday 11/19: clipper snows for WI, MI, and ON Saturday-Sunday 11/22-23: big cutter from the OK panhandle (1002mb) to just north of GRB (992mb) Sunday-Monday 11/23-24: wash, rinse, repeat...990mb in OK that goes overtop Chicago to MKG (985mb) and then APN (984mb) What you posted there for the weekend is interesting. IF we can get a lead disturbance out in advance that doesn't get too strong, then it would likely heighten the severe potential for the follow up system by giving it a head start with moisture return. All of this is still way out there though and no use obsessing over details yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Pass. Quality contribution. Yup... Now we just need to get rid of the parallel GFS storm/torch and we will be sitting good. No warmth until April 1st is my interest. Of course it is. Oh, and virtually every model/ensemble member has some kind of storm in this time period, you're gonna have to do better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 What you posted there for the weekend is interesting. IF we can get a lead disturbance out in advance that doesn't get too strong, then it would likely heighten the severe potential for the follow up system by giving it a head start with moisture return. All of this is still way out there though and no use obsessing over details yet. Pretty active in a short amount of time. It's an interesting solution for sure. And...we do need a November tornado outbreak to kick off the push for 75.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Pretty active in a short amount of time. It's an interesting solution for sure. And...we do need a November tornado outbreak to kick off the push for 75.4". Its entirely possible we go on a break from winter but still have an insane winter. Hell, 1981-82 didnt even get going til mid-December...a full MONTH later in the calendar than we sit today with a cold, snowy week ahead. But regardless, I am SO not into any severe this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 What you posted there for the weekend is interesting. IF we can get a lead disturbance out in advance that doesn't get too strong, then it would likely heighten the severe potential for the follow up system by giving it a head start with moisture return. All of this is still way out there though and no use obsessing over details yet. Euro's depiction would be extremely favorable as it stood with respect to the second system with the first one bringing the warmth and moisture northward. Obviously nothing is set in stone in any direction but as Chicago Wx noted with his ensemble graphic earlier, it looks very certain for a strong system next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Quality contribution. Of course it is. Oh, and virtually every model/ensemble member has some kind of storm in this time period, you're gonna have to do better than that. This is primarily a winter board. This comes up every year - not sure why it's such a surprise. Personally I think such a strong storm would be meteorolocially interesting even if not wintry in MBY...but still, most of us want wintry weather. It's nothing personal - just the nature of the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 This is primarily a winter board. This comes up every year - not sure why it's such a surprise. Personally I think such a strong storm would be meteorolocially interesting even if not wintry in MBY...but still, most of us want wintry weather. It's nothing personal - just the nature of the board. See everyone else's posts and see Jonger's posts, notice a difference? Thanks for the tip, but I've been around long enough here to know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 See everyone else's posts and see Jonger's posts, notice a difference? Thanks for the tip, but I've been around long enough here to know that. Fair - but if you read the NE forum, it's exactly the same. Jonger just vocalizes what most of us are thinking. But anyway - there's definitely a signal for an anomalous event coming up - see if can hold on the models over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Fair - but if you read the NE forum, it's exactly the same... NE subforum is one of the most unreadabile subforums around. I am glad we aren't like them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Fair - but if you read the NE forum, it's exactly the same. Jonger just vocalizes what most of us are thinking. But anyway - there's definitely a signal for an anomalous event coming up - see if can hold on the models over the next few days. That we should toss any warm verbatim just because it is warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 That we should toss any warm verbatim just because it is warm? In Jonger's defense, I didn't take it to mean that he was dismissing the solution as a potential outcome, just that he didn't want that outcome. There's a difference in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Anyway, I think it's obvious what many of the die-hard winter folks want...plunge straight into winter right now with no interruptions until March or April. It's just not realistic though unless maybe if you're way in the northern tier. Even the coldest/snowiest winters have temporary thaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 12z Euro ensembles have like a hundred or so different lows in the time period we've been discussing, so it's a little hard to see the "two low" progression. I can tell you that at 168 hours the mean slp location is in OK...then over IL at 192 hours...and finally over the UP/northern lower MI at 216 hours. As for what what the 12z EPS say about temps in the extended, they've been consistent with the 2-3 day warmup next weekend. Good cold shot following the storm...and then it's generally below normal until the end of the run, which takes us to December 1. For winter lovers, really nothing to dread at all. It's only November, even if feels/looks like January right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The fact that we are discussing a possible mini torch (thaw) in a winter forecast thread in the middle of November means that there is/has been a little bit of everything on the table for everyone... The modus operandi for the winter of 2013 - 2015 has been for modeled extreme torches to become squashed in time...but warm ups are gonna happen in this wicked troughy set up...especially with the bigger storms winding up. Either way I expect the warm up (to still below normal temps most likely) to be brief and lead to a decent storm for somebody...possibly some severe south, possibly some garden variety thunder, possibly some cold rain, and possibly a decent snowstorm for someone with a trailing strong HP... It's November...I will take the above over cold and dry or extended torch signals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The fact that we are discussing a possible mini torch (thaw) in a winter forecast thread in the middle of November means that there is/has been a little bit of everything on the table for everyone... The modus operandi for the winter of 2013 - 2015 has been for modeled extreme torches to become squashed in time...but warm ups are gonna happen in this wicked troughy set up...especially with the bigger storms winding up. Either way I expect the warm up (to still below normal temps most likely) to be brief and lead to a decent storm for somebody...possibly some severe south, possibly some garden variety thunder, possibly some cold rain, and possibly a decent snowstorm for someone with a trailing strong HP... It's November...I will take the above over cold and dry or extended torch signals That IS a great point and puts things in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 DVN starting to touch on the Thanksgiving week potentials... THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...LATEST SUITE OF 12Z MEDIUM RANGESOLUTIONS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG CANADIAN RIDGING PASSINGACRS THE MID CONUS AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD TO RE-ENFORCE MUCHCOLDER THAN NORMAL BUT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO FRI. LONGER RANGETRENDS CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN STUBBORN WEST COAST OMEGA BLOCK...WITH A MORE FLATTENED SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN EXTENDING EASTWARD ACRSTHE MID CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THEMODIFICATION TREND IF THIS VERIFIES AND POSSIBLY GET BACK TO NEARNORMAL BY NEXT SUNDAY. BUT FEEL THE MID CONUS ALSO SUBJECT TO ASNAP BACK TO L/W TROFFING AND ANOTHER COLD DUMP DOWN THE UPPER MSRVR VALLEY/GRT LKS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...IF THEMEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS NOT HANDLING UPPER JET AND WAVE PROGRESSIONPROPERLY ACRS CANADA. UPSTREAM PHASING OF VIGOROUS EASTERN PACIFICWAVE ENERGY STRIDING INLAND WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED...WITHSOME MODELS SUGGESTING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ROLLING UP TOWARD THEAREA OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WITH SOME WARM MOIST CONVEYORUP OFF THE GULF TO PRODUCE PRECIP ACRS THE CWA AS EARLY AS NEXT SATOR SAT NIGHT. DEPENDING ON LLVL TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES...THERECOULD BE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES OR WINTERY MIX POTENTIAL. LINGERING GRTBSN INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS L/W TROFFINESS MAY ALLOW FOR AN EVENSTRONGER SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT TOWARD OR ACRS THE AREA SOMETIME EARLYTHANKSGIVING WEEK. TIMING AND PHASING ISSUES WAY UP IN THE AIR WITHTHIS POTENTIAL SECOND PUNCH AT THIS POINT. ..12.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 That's an, um, interesting evolution on the 18z PGFS in the pre-Thanksgiving period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 That's an, um, interesting evolution on the 18z PGFS in the pre-Thanksgiving period. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Quality contribution. Of course it is. Oh, and virtually every model/ensemble member has some kind of storm in this time period, you're gonna have to do better than that. I'm not saying it won't happen, but like 95% of the subforum, I'd take a personal pass on anything yielding warm weather this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Anyway, I think it's obvious what many of the die-hard winter folks want...plunge straight into winter right now with no interruptions until March or April. It's just not realistic though unless maybe if you're way in the northern tier. Even the coldest/snowiest winters have temporary thaws.agree 100%. It would be the ideal outcome but its simply completely unrealistically. It just seems like winter, but our normal high is 49 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Anyway, I think it's obvious what many of the die-hard winter folks want...plunge straight into winter right now with no interruptions until March or April. It's just not realistic though unless maybe if you're way in the northern tier. Even the coldest/snowiest winters have temporary thaws.As far it goes for me I like the potential outcomes that are *interesting* because I find it really informative when all y'all who've had more than intro aviation met break things down and go into detail on your thinking ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 the pgfs is garbage…always way off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 cold/dry, maybe a weak clipper followed by moderation and some rain...that's the right call in the mid-range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I wish the Ukie went past 144 hrs. Already has a 988 mb surface low in Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I wish the Ukie went past 144 hrs. Already has a 988 mb surface low in Oklahoma. That second vort that drops SE is incredibly strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 That second vort that drops SE is incredibly strong. How all this evolves remains to be seen but the model signals have been impressive...haven't seen much of the ol "lose the storm" trick yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 looking forward to tracking a decent system for the first time in what seems like forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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