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Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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12z op Euro highlights. Take it FWIW.

 

Wednesday 11/19: clipper snows for WI, MI, and ON

Saturday-Sunday 11/22-23: big cutter from the OK panhandle (1002mb) to just north of GRB (992mb)

Sunday-Monday 11/23-24: wash, rinse, repeat...990mb in OK that goes overtop Chicago to MKG (985mb) and then APN (984mb)

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12z op Euro highlights. Take it FWIW.

 

Wednesday 11/19: clipper snows for WI, MI, and ON

Saturday-Sunday 11/22-23: big cutter from the OK panhandle (1002mb) to just north of GRB (992mb)

Sunday-Monday 11/23-24: wash, rinse, repeat...990mb in OK that goes overtop Chicago to MKG (985mb) and then APN (984mb)

 

 

What you posted there for the weekend is interesting.  IF we can get a lead disturbance out in advance that doesn't get too strong, then it would likely heighten the severe potential for the follow up system by giving it a head start with moisture return.  All of this is still way out there though and no use obsessing over details yet.

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Pass.

 

Quality contribution.

 

Yup... Now we just need to get rid of the parallel GFS storm/torch and we will be sitting good.

 

No warmth until April 1st is my interest.

 

Of course it is.

 

Oh, and virtually every model/ensemble member has some kind of storm in this time period, you're gonna have to do better than that.

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What you posted there for the weekend is interesting.  IF we can get a lead disturbance out in advance that doesn't get too strong, then it would likely heighten the severe potential for the follow up system by giving it a head start with moisture return.  All of this is still way out there though and no use obsessing over details yet.

 

Pretty active in a short amount of time. It's an interesting solution for sure.

 

And...we do need a November tornado outbreak to kick off the push for 75.4". :weenie:;):lol:

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Pretty active in a short amount of time. It's an interesting solution for sure.

 

And...we do need a November tornado outbreak to kick off the push for 75.4". :weenie:;):lol:

Its entirely possible we go on a break from winter but still have an insane winter. Hell, 1981-82 didnt even get going til mid-December...a full MONTH later in the calendar than we sit today with a cold, snowy week ahead. But regardless, I am SO not into any severe this time of year.

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What you posted there for the weekend is interesting. IF we can get a lead disturbance out in advance that doesn't get too strong, then it would likely heighten the severe potential for the follow up system by giving it a head start with moisture return. All of this is still way out there though and no use obsessing over details yet.

Euro's depiction would be extremely favorable as it stood with respect to the second system with the first one bringing the warmth and moisture northward. Obviously nothing is set in stone in any direction but as Chicago Wx noted with his ensemble graphic earlier, it looks very certain for a strong system next weekend.
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Quality contribution.

Of course it is.

Oh, and virtually every model/ensemble member has some kind of storm in this time period, you're gonna have to do better than that.

This is primarily a winter board. This comes up every year - not sure why it's such a surprise. Personally I think such a strong storm would be meteorolocially interesting even if not wintry in MBY...but still, most of us want wintry weather. It's nothing personal - just the nature of the board. :)

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This is primarily a winter board. This comes up every year - not sure why it's such a surprise. Personally I think such a strong storm would be meteorolocially interesting even if not wintry in MBY...but still, most of us want wintry weather. It's nothing personal - just the nature of the board. :)

 

See everyone else's posts and see Jonger's posts, notice a difference?

 

Thanks for the tip, but I've been around long enough here to know that.

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See everyone else's posts and see Jonger's posts, notice a difference?

Thanks for the tip, but I've been around long enough here to know that.

Fair - but if you read the NE forum, it's exactly the same. Jonger just vocalizes what most of us are thinking.

But anyway - there's definitely a signal for an anomalous event coming up - see if can hold on the models over the next few days.

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Fair - but if you read the NE forum, it's exactly the same. Jonger just vocalizes what most of us are thinking.

But anyway - there's definitely a signal for an anomalous event coming up - see if can hold on the models over the next few days.

 

That we should toss any warm verbatim just because it is warm?

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Anyway, I think it's obvious what many of the die-hard winter folks want...plunge straight into winter right now with no interruptions until March or April.  It's just not realistic though unless maybe if you're way in the northern tier.  Even the coldest/snowiest winters have temporary thaws. 

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12z Euro ensembles have like a hundred or so different lows in the time period we've been discussing, so it's a little hard to see the "two low" progression. :arrowhead:  

 

I can tell you that at 168 hours the mean slp location is in OK...then over IL at 192 hours...and finally over the UP/northern lower MI at 216 hours.

 

As for what what the 12z EPS say about temps in the extended, they've been consistent with the 2-3 day warmup next weekend. Good cold shot following the storm...and then it's generally below normal until the end of the run, which takes us to December 1. For winter lovers, really nothing to dread at all. It's only November, even if feels/looks like January right now. :)

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The fact that we are discussing a possible mini torch (thaw) in a winter forecast thread in the middle of November means that there is/has been a little bit of everything on the table for everyone...

 

The modus operandi for the winter of 2013 - 2015 has been for modeled extreme torches to become squashed in time...but warm ups are gonna happen in this wicked troughy set up...especially with the bigger storms winding up.

 

Either way I expect the warm up (to still below normal temps most likely) to be brief and lead to a decent storm for somebody...possibly some severe south, possibly some garden variety thunder, possibly some cold rain, and possibly a decent snowstorm for someone with a trailing strong HP...

 

It's November...I will take the above over cold and dry or extended torch signals

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The fact that we are discussing a possible mini torch (thaw) in a winter forecast thread in the middle of November means that there is/has been a little bit of everything on the table for everyone...

 

The modus operandi for the winter of 2013 - 2015 has been for modeled extreme torches to become squashed in time...but warm ups are gonna happen in this wicked troughy set up...especially with the bigger storms winding up.

 

Either way I expect the warm up (to still below normal temps most likely) to be brief and lead to a decent storm for somebody...possibly some severe south, possibly some garden variety thunder, possibly some cold rain, and possibly a decent snowstorm for someone with a trailing strong HP...

 

It's November...I will take the above over cold and dry or extended torch signals

 

:lol: That IS a great point and puts things in perspective.

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DVN starting to touch on the Thanksgiving week potentials...

 

 

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...LATEST SUITE OF 12Z MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG CANADIAN RIDGING PASSING
ACRS THE MID CONUS AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD TO RE-ENFORCE MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL BUT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO FRI. LONGER RANGE
TRENDS CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN STUBBORN WEST COAST OMEGA BLOCK...
WITH A MORE FLATTENED SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN EXTENDING EASTWARD ACRS
THE MID CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE
MODIFICATION TREND IF THIS VERIFIES AND POSSIBLY GET BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY NEXT SUNDAY. BUT FEEL THE MID CONUS ALSO SUBJECT TO A
SNAP BACK TO L/W TROFFING AND ANOTHER COLD DUMP DOWN THE UPPER MS
RVR VALLEY/GRT LKS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...IF THE
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS NOT HANDLING UPPER JET AND WAVE PROGRESSION
PROPERLY ACRS CANADA. UPSTREAM PHASING OF VIGOROUS EASTERN PACIFIC
WAVE ENERGY STRIDING INLAND WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED...WITH
SOME MODELS SUGGESTING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ROLLING UP TOWARD THE
AREA OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WITH SOME WARM MOIST CONVEYOR
UP OFF THE GULF TO PRODUCE PRECIP ACRS THE CWA AS EARLY AS NEXT SAT
OR SAT NIGHT. DEPENDING ON LLVL TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES...THERE
COULD BE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES OR WINTERY MIX POTENTIAL. LINGERING GRT
BSN INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS L/W TROFFINESS MAY ALLOW FOR AN EVEN
STRONGER SYSTEM TO EJECT OUT TOWARD OR ACRS THE AREA SOMETIME EARLY
THANKSGIVING WEEK. TIMING AND PHASING ISSUES WAY UP IN THE AIR WITH
THIS POTENTIAL SECOND PUNCH AT THIS POINT.    ..12..

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Quality contribution.

Of course it is.

Oh, and virtually every model/ensemble member has some kind of storm in this time period, you're gonna have to do better than that.

I'm not saying it won't happen, but like 95% of the subforum, I'd take a personal pass on anything yielding warm weather this time of year.

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Anyway, I think it's obvious what many of the die-hard winter folks want...plunge straight into winter right now with no interruptions until March or April. It's just not realistic though unless maybe if you're way in the northern tier. Even the coldest/snowiest winters have temporary thaws.

agree 100%. It would be the ideal outcome but its simply completely unrealistically. It just seems like winter, but our normal high is 49 today.
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Anyway, I think it's obvious what many of the die-hard winter folks want...plunge straight into winter right now with no interruptions until March or April.  It's just not realistic though unless maybe if you're way in the northern tier.  Even the coldest/snowiest winters have temporary thaws.

As far it goes for me I like the potential outcomes that are *interesting* because I find it really informative when all y'all who've had more than intro aviation met break things down and go into detail on your thinking ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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