Gilbertfly Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Agree with that. It doesn't look like a warm pattern overall, though it won't be as cold as it has been. Best chance to put up any big positive departures would be out ahead of any storm system. As far as the last part, guess it depends on your definition of "extended" and what your threshold is for above normal. I guess I was just figuring a 4 or 5+ day stretch where highs and lows ended up being above what the normal temperature was for that time period...however it was more of a "feeling" for MBY than anything I can back up with statistics. I think back to this summer and it seemed like every forecast was calling for normal to below normal temps. Granted, that lead to many beautiful top notch days...but once the page turns toward winter months and you start sprinkling in a snowpack...well those below normal temp days feel far from top notch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 I guess I was just figuring a 4 or 5+ day stretch where highs and lows ended up being above what the normal temperature was for that time period...however it was more of a "feeling" for MBY than anything I can back up with statistics. I think back to this summer and it seemed like every forecast was calling for normal to below normal temps. Granted, that lead to many beautiful top notch days...but once the page turns toward winter months and you start sprinkling in a snowpack...well those below normal temp days feel far from top notch. Morch. Or at least it feels that long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Morch. Or at least it feels that long ago. The other shoe has completely dropped since then, and it has been over a year now that we cant really sustain any kind of warm spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Seems the switch got flipped for Indianapolis in February 2013. Just two months since then have been solidly above normal. And 2014 is sitting in 4th place on the coolest year on record list for Indy, through October. This November will certainly help things as well. Feb 2013: -1.2˚ Mar 2013: -6.7˚ Apr 2013: -0.5˚ May 2013: +2.7˚ Jun 2013: 0.0˚ Jul 2013: -1.5˚ Aug 2013: +0.7˚ Sep 2013: +2.6˚ Oct 2013: -0.4˚ Nov 2013: -4.4˚ Dec 2013: -1.7˚ Jan 2014: -8.0˚ Feb 2014: -9.8˚ Mar 2014: -6.5˚ Apr 2014: 0.0˚ May 2014: +0.4˚ Jun 2014: +0.7˚ Jul 2014: -5.3˚ (coolest July on record) Aug 2014: -0.4˚ Sep 2014: -1.5˚ Oct 2014: -0.8˚ Nov 2014: -6.9˚ (thru 11/14) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 12z Parallel GFS total snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 12z Euro is almost a carbon copy of the parallel GFS for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Amounts fairly light, 0.23" imby, but then it's followed by a mid-lake band closer to 0.4" at LAF but there's likely precip type issues verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Seems the switch got flipped for Indianapolis in February 2013. Just two months since then have been solidly above normal. And 2014 is sitting in 4th place on the coolest year on record list for Indy, through October. This November will certainly help things as well. Feb 2013: -1.2˚ Mar 2013: -6.7˚ Apr 2013: -0.5˚ May 2013: +2.7˚ Jun 2013: 0.0˚ Jul 2013: -1.5˚ Aug 2013: +0.7˚ Sep 2013: +2.6˚ Oct 2013: -0.4˚ Nov 2013: -4.4˚ Dec 2013: -1.7˚ Jan 2014: -8.0˚ Feb 2014: -9.8˚ Mar 2014: -6.5˚ Apr 2014: 0.0˚ May 2014: +0.4˚ Jun 2014: +0.7˚ Jul 2014: -5.3˚ (coolest July on record) Aug 2014: -0.4˚ Sep 2014: -1.5˚ Oct 2014: -0.8˚ Nov 2014: -6.9˚ (thru 11/14) Thats a good point...even though the hardcore stretch of below normal began last November, really, the hardcore stretch of warmth basically ended in Jan 2013. Feb 2013: -0.9˚ Mar 2013: -2.6˚ Apr 2013: -2.8˚ May 2013: +3.9˚ Jun 2013: +0.2˚ Jul 2013: +0.4˚ Aug 2013: -0.1˚ Sep 2013: -0.3˚ Oct 2013: +0.9˚ Nov 2013: -4.0˚ Dec 2013: -3.3˚ Jan 2014: -9.2˚ Feb 2014: -8.7˚ Mar 2014: -8.5˚ Apr 2014: -0.3˚ May 2014: +1.7˚ Jun 2014: +1.1˚ Jul 2014: -3.7˚ Aug 2014: -0.5˚ Sep 2014: -0.9˚ Oct 2014: -0.3˚ Nov 2014: -3.9˚ (thru 11/14) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 euro has a much different solution with the cutter early thanksgiving week....now it makes it to about central IN and heads east. Clocks lower MI, northern IN and northern OH. Startng to wonder about this 'warm up' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 jeez, then another 6"+ event on Sunday, LAF included. I'll be driving back east on Saturday, so odds are pretty high you'll get something good right after I leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Fun run of the 12z Euro today. Even though the rest of the run, post 72 hours, is all cold rain for LAF. But, lots of wintry possibilities for many in this sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Fun run of the 12z Euro today. Even if the rest of the run, post 72 hours, is all rain for LAF. Lots of wintry possibilities for many in this sub-forum. Would put Detroit in the top 3 snowiest Novembers. After last winter it would only make sense to start with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 jeez, then another 6"+ event on Sunday, LAF included. I'll be driving back east on Saturday, so odds are pretty high you'll get something good right after I leave. Fun run of the 12z Euro today. Even though the rest of the run, post 72 hours, is all cold rain for LAF. But, lots of wintry possibilities for many in this sub-forum. Alright, which one of you guys is wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Alright, which one of you guys is wrong? Depends what side of town you are on , the 0c surface line runs right through town for both events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Alright, which one of you guys is wrong? I mean, we're discussing fine details for fantasy storms here...but we literally add 0.9" of snow the rest of the run, past Tuesday. And that's going off the weeniest of all snowfall maps. I have noticed looking at 2m temps, the Euro likes to make LAF the warmest in central IN, by a degree or two most of the time. So we got that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Alright, which one of you guys is wrong? probably me I mean, we're discussing fine details for fantasy storms here...but we literally add 0.9" of snow the rest of the run, past Tuesday. And that's going off the weeniest of all snowfall maps. I didn't delve into the details but I could see the Friday event actually being all rain down there. I thought for sure you did better than that on Sunday-Monday though. Just looked closer, and actually you've got 850's +1.5, cooling to ~ +0.5. Sfc falls below freezing before 850 though. Obviously splitting hairs when we're talking 180+ hrs out, but yeah, I guess only the northern suburbs of LAF cash in on ths Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 probably me I didn't delve into the details but I could see the Friday event actually being all rain down there. I thought for sure you did better than that on Sunday-Monday though. Just looked closer, and actually you've got 850's +1.5, cooling to ~ +0.5. Sfc falls below freezing before 850 though. Obviously splitting hairs when we're talking 180+ hrs out, but yeah, I guess only the northern suburbs of LAF cash in on ths Euro run. Haha, yeah. Though I could probably envision an actual better result with a few of those, if they came to fruition as shown today. But if I could pick one, I'd choose the day 10 storm...moved a bit west of course. That one looks fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Looking like a substantial LES outbreak on the passage of the late week storm. Could be quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 torch signals vanishing before our eyes....color me shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Here's something I noticed. The 132-hour GFS has a high pressure for the Ohio valley (12z Friday) and the Parallel GFS has a low pressure in the middle of Kentucky with rain/snow!! Ut oh. What GFS is right? The bigger question might be this: what are going to be the benefits (or consequences) of NCEP implementing the 13km GFS a month from now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 so yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 That is pretty incredible in more ways than one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 That is pretty incredible in more ways than one. It would break some November barometric pressure records for areas near the track for one thing. Specifics aside, this general timeframe has been flagged for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Hoosier chucking 'em deep. Here's one model's suite of individual runs from last night...at 216 hours. Fairly good agreement at something happening. Pick your poison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The wind fields with that upper trough have to be upper percentile and the surface pressure envelope is just huge (as you would expect with a low of that magnitude). I'm not sure how much instability it is showing, but it wouldn't take a whole lot to have a significant severe event come out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The wind fields with that upper trough have to be upper percentile and the surface pressure envelope is just huge (as you would expect with a low of that magnitude). I'm not sure how much instability it is showing, but it wouldn't take a whole lot to have a significant severe event come out of that. Hard to make out but it looks like about 130 kts at 500 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Well we all know that cold season low CAPE events can sometimes be quite surprising wrt severity if this model solution pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 so yeah gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 torch signals vanishing before our eyes....color me shocked Yup... Now we just need to get rid of the parallel GFS storm/torch and we will be sitting good. No warmth until April 1st is my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Yup... Now we just need to get rid of the parallel GFS storm/torch and we will be sitting good. No warmth until April 1st is my interest. You're gonna have to get rid of it on the ECMWF too. Unless you're talking about the UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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