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Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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Considering the long lead, pretty good agreement amongst the 12z Euro ensembles on a "sizable" storm in the 24-26th timeframe. Details are not important really, but there are "clusters" that basically take the track from OK/TX to IL to MI. 

 

seems to make the most sense.  AO, NAO, and PNA all converging into neutral territory.   Maybe we can pull another 60+ day out of our butts here after all.   Strong south winds ahead of Mississippi valley cutter....wouldn't mind a shot at severe to mix it up a bit too. :popcorn:

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seems to make the most sense.  AO, NAO, and PNA all converging into neutral territory.   Maybe we can pull another 60+ day out of our butts here after all.   Strong south winds ahead of Mississippi valley cutter....wouldn't mind a shot at severe to mix it up a bit too. :popcorn:

 

Yeah, all in all, the GFS Ensembles are showing a warm storm, not very confident there will even be much snow on the NW side, would think there could be, but the cold air looks shallower than this recent trough.

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I'm shocked buckeye would post a warm weeklies report.  :lol:

 

Looping through the individual days on the ensembles, it's a fairly changeable pattern. No real long lasting warm shots, no real long lasting cold shots. Kinda stormy looking too. NH pattern looks good all the same...for the down the road in mid-late December, IMO.

 

Alas, the weeklies have blown chunks of late. They completely missed this current cold outbreak, so take them FWIW.

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I'm shocked buckeye would post a warm weeklies report.  :lol:

 

Looping through the individual days on the ensembles, it's a fairly changeable pattern. No real long lasting warm shots, no real long lasting cold shots. Kinda stormy looking too. NH pattern looks good all the same...for the down the road in mid-late December, IMO.

 

Alas, the weeklies have blown chunks of late. They completely missed this current cold outbreak, so take them FWIW.

 

Well since you seem to be implying I'm a warminista, allow me to play the role the right way,

 

Yea, it's variable in weeks 2 and 3 but by week 4 the warmth builds steadily, by day 30 the greatest departure above normal 850 temps over north America are smack dab over Michigan....+17 above range...that's at the end of the weeklies range, December 15th.   The CF2 are losing their cold December look once again....and I have heard the theory that the reason the weeklies completely missed this current cold outbreak was due to that record typhoon....and...the final topper on the **** torch sundae....JB is telling weenies they will need to prepare themselves and remain calm after this current cold shot ends later next week.  

 

See, I'm a snow weenie at heart, but I think I CAN do a warminista pretty damn good if you insist. :P

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Well since you seem to be implying I'm a warminista, allow me to play the role the right way,

 

Yea, it's variable in weeks 2 and 3 but by week 4 the warmth builds steadily, by day 30 the greatest departure above normal 850 temps over north America are smack dab over Michigan....+17 above range...that's at the end of the weeklies range, December 15th.   The CF2 are losing their cold December look once again....and I have heard the theory that the reason the weeklies completely missed this current cold outbreak was due to that record typhoon....and...the final topper on the **** torch sundae....JB is telling weenies they will need to prepare themselves and remain calm after this current cold shot ends later next week.  

 

See, I'm a snow weenie at heart, but I think I CAN do a warminista pretty damn good if you insist. :P

Weeklies & the CFS are terrible. But just reporting them doesnt make you a warminista. I like to hear what they all have to say, good or bad. Doesnt  mean they will happen. CFS had a warm November :lmao:. In fact I havent seen this cold December that you speak of per CFS either.

 

Last winter, Detroit had 117 days with snow on the ground, 96 days of which had 1"+ (most way, way, WAY over 1" lol), so that means 21 days had a T. However, 5 of those days were in Nov, 10 in late Mar, & the remaning 6 were Christmas week. Yes, there was onlg a T on the ground on Christmas. A winter full of record snow and the ONE day of the year everyone wants snow there wasnt much. So while Im not expecting another wall to wall white winter, I hope that torch in mid-Dec, should it occur, is not pushed back or extended into Christmas. We all need a shot at a snowy Christmas :)

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Well since you seem to be implying I'm a warminista, allow me to play the role the right way,

 

Yea, it's variable in weeks 2 and 3 but by week 4 the warmth builds steadily, by day 30 the greatest departure above normal 850 temps over north America are smack dab over Michigan....+17 above range...that's at the end of the weeklies range, December 15th.   The CF2 are losing their cold December look once again....and I have heard the theory that the reason the weeklies completely missed this current cold outbreak was due to that record typhoon....and...the final topper on the **** torch sundae....JB is telling weenies they will need to prepare themselves and remain calm after this current cold shot ends later next week.  

 

See, I'm a snow weenie at heart, but I think I CAN do a warminista pretty damn good if you insist. :P

 

Hey, you're the king of posting day 10 Euro torch maps in winter. Just thought I'd play along.  j/k obviously  :P

 

Well, the control run certainly shows the above scenario...but the ensemble mean is just a bit tamer with the warmth. I guess maybe I'm a little new to this looking at the weeklies thing, but I'm assuming the ensembles "way" might be a better performer...considering there's more individual runs involved. Of course I've been totally wrong before, so who knows. :lol:

 

And um...the CFSv2 had it's first cold look for December today. ;)

 

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Euro weeklies from today, (for subforum): 

week 2 above norm temps.....week 3 cold, trough back over us....week 4 (leading up to mid December) absolute torch in the eastern half with greatest temp departures of + teens centered over great lakes.

 

 

WOW.. They had this look till a little over a week ago when they took us into the deep freeze for all 4 weeks and now it is back to the torch pattern. Guessing this is why they are getting a upgrade? lol week 2 also shows above normal precip over the region. Wonder if they are also picking up on that system on the 24-26th?

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12Z PGFS continues with the 21st and Turkey day systems...looks like the "warm up" is trending cooler also...AND a little clipper looks on the offing as well midweek next week...

 

EDIT:

 

I was a little early on the Turkey Day system...it looks like there was a "new" system added in between the 21st and turkey day

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I noticed the muted warm up too. Im very curious about the potential in the coming weeks, but with a bit of caution. One thing we all must remember, it is MID NOVEMBER! It doesnt feel like it or seem like it, and by early next week we will be LONG acclimated to the winter feel. But its not supposed to be this cold, this early. The fact that we are worried more about storm/precip CHANCES in the coming weeks rather than precip-type says something. The average high at Detroit doesnt fall below 40F until December 6th, or 22 days from now! Im sure Chicago, Cleveland, etc are similar.

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Hard to believe as cold as it is in the near term that the Nov. 22-24 period would swing with so much volatility.  Made me look as well at the models which I haven't done for awhile given the lackluster svr and hurricane season.  At least things get more active one way or another as we head into winter.

Thats a good point. Its been very quiet lately. this is the PERFECT time for the weather to get more active, as we moved towards late November. Even if ptype isnt favorable with this potential Thanksgiving week storm, an active pattern heading into december is all you can ask for.

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Hard to believe as cold as it is in the near term that the Nov. 22-24 period would swing with so much volatility.  Made me look as well at the models which I haven't done for awhile given the lackluster svr and hurricane season.  At least things get more active one way or another as we head into winter.

 

 

I love the volatility in the transition seasons...or at least the potential of it.  You can get some wild swings for sure.  Last November 12 we had a high of 33 and less than a week later, one of the worst fall severe weather outbreaks. 

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Cohen's latest thoughts on the Arctic Oscillation etc:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Sounds like neutral to even positive possible for a time after the current strongly -AO period potentially followed by another dip toward the beginning of December. Main theme is that the AO is likely to be driven by tropospheric processes until a true SSW and disruption of the stratospheric vortex. Also mentioned needing the Aleutian low to move back into a favorable position to favor troughing in the east to drive cold air southward from Canada.

My take from all this is until the AO locks in negative top down due to stratospheric processes we'll probably be in a much more changeable weather pattern after the current cold pattern ends, which could take us into mid December. As long as there remains ridging north of AK, the cold air will not be far away and also the deep snow pack over the northern subforum and Canada + how cold it has already gotten over Canada will likely preclude any sustained torch periods.

Having a stronger system/severe threat in the period already mentioned in previous posts seems to fit in well with all of this.

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I noticed the muted warm up too. Im very curious about the potential in the coming weeks, but with a bit of caution. One thing we all must remember, it is MID NOVEMBER! It doesnt feel like it or seem like it, and by early next week we will be LONG acclimated to the winter feel. But its not supposed to be this cold, this early. The fact that we are worried more about storm/precip CHANCES in the coming weeks rather than precip-type says something. The average high at Detroit doesnt fall below 40F until December 6th, or 22 days from now! Im sure Chicago, Cleveland, etc are similar.

 

Thanksgiving Day is when the average hits 40° here. 

Slowly getting acclimated to this cold. Once we have one of those brief "mild" swings, it will like feel warmer than it should, but in reality it will probably be close to the average high! lol.

Rather see the active storm track as opposed to wall to wall cold this month. 

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Big trough in the making for turkey day should prolly lead to a mini torch....but it would be rapid imo...maybe 24 to 36 hour lasting. Any extended warm up (temps above normal) just isn't in the cards anytime soon...imo

Honestly, when is the last time we had any extended period of above normal temps? Its been awhile...

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Big trough in the making for turkey day should prolly lead to a mini torch....but it would be rapid imo...maybe 24 to 36 hour lasting. Any extended warm up (temps above normal) just isn't in the cards anytime soon...imo

Honestly, when is the last time we had any extended period of above normal temps? Its been awhile...

 

 

Agree with that.  It doesn't look like a warm pattern overall, though it won't be as cold as it has been.  Best chance to put up any big positive departures would be out ahead of any storm system.

 

As far as the last part, guess it depends on your definition of "extended" and what your threshold is for above normal.

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