Chicago Storm Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Like previous seasons... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Dare I mention a possible moisture-laden storm in the 168-240 hour range that could provide some fun for some if it continues to be a factor on the models? Some of the GFS Ensembles are on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 soil temps and moisture seem comparable to a year ago...clearly the 2 inch moisture content can be quite variable...but even at the 4 inch depth things still line up pretty well with last year. I am not saying the net result is the same winter as last winter....but just using last year as a comp since it is fresher in the noggin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Not in our area but anyone see that behemoth being progged near the Aleutians in several days? Some models have it sub 930 mb, some runs have even been sub 920 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Not in our area but anyone see that behemoth being progged near the Aleutians in several days? Some models have it sub 930 mb, some runs have even been sub 920 mb. gfs_npac_114_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Yeah that is the remnants of the super typhoon south of Japan right now after it phased with a mid latitude trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 The GFS has some nasty cold shots next 7-10 days and the baroclinic zone on the 12z Euro at 168hrs is pretty insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 euro shows snow on the ground and single digit lows in southern MI day 10. Even though it's likely to be overdone, the signal for brutal...early...is starting to look solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 euro shows snow on the ground and single digit lows in southern MI day 10. Even though it's likely to be overdone, the signal for brutal...early...is starting to look solid. The parallel GFS was showing the same thing with respect to the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 euro shows snow on the ground and single digit lows in southern MI day 10. Even though it's likely to be overdone, the signal for brutal...early...is starting to look solid. IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT THERE IS AN END IN SITE TO THIS ACTIVE AND COLD PATTERN AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND A GOOD PORTION (NEARLY 70 PERCENT) OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP HIGHS BELOW 32 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WAY THINGS ARE GOING...THIS COULD BE THE THE START OF THE WINTER SNOW PACK. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 this thread is really getting off to a quick start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT THERE IS AN END IN SITE TO THIS ACTIVE AND COLD PATTERN AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND A GOOD PORTION (NEARLY 70 PERCENT) OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP HIGHS BELOW 32 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WAY THINGS ARE GOING...THIS COULD BE THE THE START OF THE WINTER SNOW PACK. && Saweeeeet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Both the 18z GFS and 12z EURO have a NW flow system spreading snow into a good deal of the subforum. I saw those EURO lows at the end of the run. Over done I'm sure, but it looks to be well below normal next week at the very least. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Yeah that is the remnants of the super typhoon south of Japan right now after it phased with a mid latitude trough. Comment from Jeff Masters below. Interestingly, but perhaps meaningless, the Alaska low pressure record was set in 1977, and 77-78 has been mentioned as an analog by some folks. The GFS and European models are both predicting the extratropical remnants of Typhoon Nuri will become a sub-925 mb low in the western Aleutian Islands on Friday night and Saturday morning, with the 12Z Monday run of the European model predicting ex-Nuri will bottom out at 916 mb at 06Z Saturday. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, the all-time Alaska low pressure record is 926 mb at St. Paul Island and Dutch Harbor on October 25 - 26, 1977, so ex-Nuri has a chance to beat that record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 this thread is really getting off to a quick start Last years med/long range winter thread was actually started in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Comment from Jeff Masters below. Interestingly, but perhaps meaningless, the Alaska low pressure record was set in 1977, and 77-78 has been mentioned as an analog by some folks. I am sure plenty here would love a repeat of 77-78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 It really is going to be fun to watch this pattern the next few weeks.and if it sets in. The models continue to just reload the cold and dislodge into the Midwest over and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 The models are likely overpowering the initial cold front and that is causing to much suppression. West based arctic blocking doesn't translate into a major -NAO interestly enough, especially early on in the season. Could be why the climate models are popping southeast ridges in December. Last winter showed how one does not need a -ao/-nao to get the cold delivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 The parallel GFS was showing the same thing with respect to the snow. I was looking at that.. Pretty wild. With the nino in check and a few other things there is really not much to kick this pattern from the rails as happens more often with a stronger nino etc. It probably will happen from time to time but it shouldn't be no 63-64, 57-58, 02-03 and or those years which saw everything go south of us. Basically another share the wealth winter like last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I was looking at that.. Pretty wild. With the nino in check and a few other things there is really not much to kick this pattern from the rails as happens more often with a stronger nino etc. It probably will happen from time to time but it shouldn't be no 63-64, 57-58, 02-03 and or those years which saw everything go south of us. Basically another share the wealth winter like last winter. 02-03 was a great year on this side of the state, ended up with 60.9" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Last years med/long range winter thread was actually started in October. Sometimes the winter threads kick off in July.... Its like the NFL, it's a 365 day a year sport. Dec 1st through Feb 29th is the regular season. March 1st though May 31st is the post season. June 1st through August 31st is the draft/combine. Sept 1st through Nov 30th is the pre-season. on Amwx of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 02-03 was a great year on this side of the state, ended up with 60.9" of snow. It wasn't too bad here ( the Christmas storm which nailed S.MI was one of the nice highlights that winter ) but overall the main track was south of us. Was 70+ where i was at in central Ohio that winter which was a record. Ofcourse we got the mixed bag down that way with that Christmas storm. PDII more then made up for that though.. Just nw/west of us though wasn't as great if i recall correctly? Someone from Chicago can probably answer this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 With the fall we have had and weak nino we shouldn't see those kinds of departures in this region this winter as was had in 02-03.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 It wasn't too bad here ( the Christmas storm which nailed S.MI was one of the nice highlights that winter ) but overall the main track was south of us. Was 70+ where i was at in central Ohio that winter which was a record. Ofcourse we got the mixed bag down that way with that Christmas storm. PDII more then made up for that though.. Just nw/west of us though wasn't as great if i recall correctly? Someone from Chicago can probably answer this? winter0203PRECIP.png Yeah we had a lot of fluffy snows that winter, but I'll take it over dry slot and mixing any day. Hell we had a nice snowstorm in April that year after a pretty impressive ice storm if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 It wasn't too bad here ( the Christmas storm which nailed S.MI was one of the nice highlights that winter ) but overall the main track was south of us. Was 70+ where i was at in central Ohio that winter which was a record. Ofcourse we got the mixed bag down that way with that Christmas storm. PDII more then made up for that though.. Just nw/west of us though wasn't as great if i recall correctly? Someone from Chicago can probably answer this? winter0203PRECIP.png Yeah, it was a subpar winter farther northwest. It was alright in LAF though not as good as farther south/east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Have not's and have's during the winter of 2002-03. Chicago: 28.6" Dubuque: 23.8" Green Bay: 38.9" Kansas City: 9.4" La Crosse: 30.3" Madison: 28.8" Milwaukee: 34.7" Minneapolis: 35.0" Moline: 18.7" Peoria: 19.2" Rockford: 18.3" Alpena: 84.2" Cleveland: 95.7" Columbus: 50.6" Dayton: 43.7" Detroit: 60.9" Flint: 52.1" Fort Wayne: 46.7" Grand Rapids: 88.0" Indianapolis: 50.0" St. Louis: 29.8" Springfield MO: 38.6" Toledo: 56.4" For me, it was all about the December 24-25 storm. One of the best Christmas presents ever. That one was back in the WWBB days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I am sure plenty here would love a repeat of 77-78. '77-78 redux on the heels of 2013-14? You cant script stuff like this! Of course, '77-78 is about 3 feet less of snow than '13-14, but I could manage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Have not's and have's during the winter of 2002-03. Chicago: 28.6" Dubuque: 23.8" Green Bay: 38.9" Kansas City: 9.4" La Crosse: 30.3" Madison: 28.8" Milwaukee: 34.7" Minneapolis: 35.0" Moline: 18.7" Peoria: 19.2" Rockford: 18.3" Alpena: 84.2" Cleveland: 95.7" Columbus: 50.6" Dayton: 43.7" Detroit: 60.9" Flint: 52.1" Fort Wayne: 46.7" Grand Rapids: 88.0" Indianapolis: 50.0" St. Louis: 29.8" Springfield MO: 38.6" Toledo: 56.4" For me, it was all about the December 24-25 storm. One of the best Christmas presents ever. That one was back in the WWBB days. While we're at it... Remember how that thing kept trending northwest as it got closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Yeah we had a lot of fluffy snows that winter, but I'll take it over dry slot and mixing any day. Hell we had a nice snowstorm in April that year after a pretty impressive ice storm if I remember correctly. That winter was indeed one of super fluffy snows. Now, that was also the year when the ASOS was fairly new and some ridiculously low numbers came out of some snowfalls for DTW, and at that time they couldnt adjust it manually (we had a March snowfall of 4.1" that had 0.04" water per asos). But regadless...it was a dry, cold winter with well above normal snowfall. It was the first time Detroit had hit 60" since 1981-82, over 20 years at the time (it has since happened 5 more times in the next 11 years ). The April snowstorm was very memorable because it was 5" of powder snow that fell in a matter of hours, followed by like 12 hours of freezing drizzle which iced everything over. Was the most tundra-like scene id ever seen in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 While we're at it... n0r_20021224_2330.png Remember how that thing kept trending northwest as it got closer. We had no snow on the ground, and it was the MORNING of Dec 24th and the news said "sorry we wont be having a white Christmas this year, but it will be cold". 12 hours later it was snowing and 30 hours later 6.8" of snow had fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Seems like I see a lot of humping in other parts of the forum that weak Ninos = dry/less snowy winters for the Midwest. That's great and all...but below normal precipitation totals don't always mean below normal snowfall. It's just one example...and a good one at that, but if one made a guess about season totals in the region, based solely on these precip departure maps...well, they'd be terribly wrong. I mean, STL had 66.0", SPI 52.1", MKE 82.7", MDW 82.9", and SBN 172.0" that season...but deep precip departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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