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Predict The Date : 1st Snowfall NYC 1 inch or Greater


NEG NAO

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Thanks BUT do you actually think NYC will reach an inch ?

 

NYZ072-073-176-270230-  

/O.CAN.KOKX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-141127T0600Z/  

NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-NORTHERN QUEENS-  

821 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014  

   

..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED  

 

LESS THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THIS  

EVENING...SO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS  

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

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LOL - thats why I was being quiet about possibly winning the contest because I knew something was going to go wrong - the story of my life ! LMAO - but I still have till midnight tomorrow night - then if no inch on to the next contestants prediction

 

Yep, winter weather forecasting is extremely challenging.   The radar shows some light snow moving thru so who knows, maybe (but doubtful) a little more snow will be added and everyone will be surprised.

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Lol early congrats to Jbg?

the winner is the contestant whose prediction is closest to the verified date and hour of the first 1 inch total from 1 storm - so if the next one is 0.8 and the seasonal total at that point is 1.0 that is not the winning entry........

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Here is an updated list of all the entrants and the results so far : Also to remind everyone the 1st inch means first inch accumulation in one storm NOT when the seasonal total reaches 1 inch.

Doorman Nov 8

Pbgfi Nov 15

Redmkggli Nov 15

Snow88 Nov 16

Bxengine Nov 19

Wintersgrasp Nov 21

Snowaddict Nov 21

Mob 1 Nov 22

Rtd208 Nov 23

NYY2 Nov 24

BlueSkiesFading Nov 24

TauntonBlizzard2013 Nov 25

Neg Nao Nov 27

denvilleNJ Nov 28

Chaser25973 Nov 29

Uncle W Nov 29

TonyLovesSnow Nov 30

Cik62 Nov 30

Uscgrs Dec 1

CFA Dec 2

Frankdp23 Dec 3

Snowlover11 Dec 3

Snowski 14 Dec 4

IntenseBlizzard2014 Dec 5

Jc-ct Dec 5

Alexa Dec 5

Imperator Dec 5

Plfdwxdude Dec 6

Rjay Dec 7

Mullen Dec 7

Neblizzard Dec 8

Eduardo Dec 8

NutleyBlizzard Dec 8

Cjr231 Dec 9

Twcman Dec 10

WxOutlooksBlog Dec 10

JonClaw Dec 10

Longbeachsurffreak Dec 12

Isentropiclift Dec 14

rgwp96 Dec 15

AllSnow Dec 20

Wannabehippie Dec 24

WeatherFox Dec 25

Jbg Jan 15

 

Another few prognosticators are primed to bite the dust.  Your guess is as good as mine to who eventually wins this contest.

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Central Park should be close.

They just issued their forecast update and are predicting about an inch :)

 

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

840 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014

NYZ072-111100-

NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-

840 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014

.TONIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH.

BREEZY WITH LOWS AROUND 30. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW

60 PERCENT.

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last year we had 1.4" in NYC setting a record for the date...

.....1.4" in 2013....

.....1.3" in 1932....

.....0.8" in 1961.....

.....0.6" in 1947......

.....0.6" in 1945......

.....0.5" in 1926......

I remember 1961...I was 12 at the time...it was a surprise late night snowfall...We had a white Christmas that year...1947 had it's first measurable snow on this date...

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It looks to me that .07" of melted snow was recorded which would be short of the 1" snowfall requirement for the contest.   Therefore, unless I am wrong the contest remains in effect.

post-1009-0-50307600-1418267672_thumb.pn

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It looks to me that .07" of melted snow was recorded which would be short of the 1" snowfall requirement for the contest.   Therefore, unless I am wrong the contest remains in effect.

I think it was high ratio snowfall...It could be 1" but their snow obs are always suspect lately...

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If Central Park reported a trace...does that mean that JFK Airport reported a negative amount of snow today?...I mean...that would be very much in sequence with the normal course of things...

The zoo keeper could be in trouble especially if someone bet the over on snowfall this year...

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I think it was high ratio snowfall...It could be 1" but their snow obs are always suspect lately...

Will have to wait for the official word, but I am not optimistic but I am hoping.   :snowwindow:

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/tables/snowfall-meltwater.html

 

The Actual values for a specific storm can vary significantly from this table.

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They probably measured at 7pm or 00z but upton hasn't issued a PNS yet, they may soon, otherwise we will know by 1am when the climate report comes out.

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We are now down to the lucky seven and good luck to all.  This contest has been fun to participate and of course accentuates the challenges of short range weather forecasting and naturally the guess & luck factor in long range forecasting in addition to climatology, indexes, analogs, modeling and anything else used.

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We are now down to the lucky seven and good luck to all.  This contest has been fun to participate and of course accentuates the challenges of short range weather forecasting and naturally the guess & luck factor in long range forecasting in addition to climatology, indexes, analogs, modeling and anything else used.

you or the jbg guy will win by default

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I am just hoping there is a clear cut winner here and that we don't have to gather a few judges and vote on it considering one can argue if these snow showers should be considered part of the Tuesday Nor'easter .........

I understand, it could also get a dicey because of the breaks in the upcoming predictions.   My opinion is to use the Daily Climate Report for KNYC or the NWS Public Statements for daily accumulations.  Then you as the originator of this thread may need to interpolate which lucky guesser came closest to the date predicted for the 1" of snow at Central Park, NY.  Of course, these decisions are yours  - thanks for the fun!

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We are now down to the lucky seven and good luck to all.  This contest has been fun to participate and of course accentuates the challenges of short range weather forecasting and naturally the guess & luck factor in long range forecasting in addition to climatology, indexes, analogs, modeling and anything else used.

you or the jbg guy will win by default
Should we split the $10,000 that americanwx will pay to the lucky winner? :)
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Boy... I do hope someone wins the contest or we're in for a very long winter.

The spirit of 1972-3?

Would be fitting. My dad died 1/5/1973 (and we whiffed on a snowstorm on the funeral day, 1/7/1973, just 18 degrees, sunny and cold, all fun from RDU south) and my mother's likely gone any week now.

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The spirit of 1972-3?

Would be fitting. My dad died 1/5/1973 (and we whiffed on a snowstorm on the funeral day, 1/7/1973, just 18 degrees, sunny and cold, all fun from RDU south) and my mother's likely gone any week now.

sorry to hear that JBG...I lost my mom on 12/16/86...you never forget it...I remember 1973...I was 24 at the time...My son is 24 now...life is short...Enjoy it while it lasts...

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