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November 2014 Banter


Kay

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I'm not buying the Nov climo argument. If it can easily snow during multiple years on Dec 5th it can accidentally snow on Dec -5th. That's my story and I'm sticking to jt

 

Sun angle is certainly not an issue, but I can't think of a single instance where we had a snowstorm just 48 hours after it being 70+ degrees and near-record highs. 50's or even 60's, yeah, but not over 70. Not saying it can't happen, but it would be very unusual.

 

In does snow in Nov. and we're overdue, but climo would argue for it not being significant.

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I'm not buying the Nov climo argument. If it can easily snow during multiple years on Dec 5th it can accidentally snow on Dec -5th. That's my story and I'm sticking to jt

I think the climo argument is bunk. If the ingredients are there, then the ingredients are there. The only argument for climo is that the ingredients aren't often there on the edges of the season.

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I think the climo argument is bunk. If the ingredients are there, then the ingredients are there. The only argument for climo is that the ingredients aren't often there on the edges of the season.

We're inside of 3 days now. Column is fine on gfs/euro except for surface. Both have heavy rates. If it goes down as depicted it sticks. If rates are light it won't. If track changes and goes to heck then it's over. I'm not sure what else can be said.

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Based on current guidance- GFS/Euro blend, taking into account the potential dynamic nature of the storm, lack of cold air mass and marginal low level temps, complete disregard for any and all model/weenie snow maps, and factoring in climo....here is my early call:

 

Along the bay and east to interior eastern shore- rain or rain/snow mix for at least half the event, 1-2 inches of snow

Right along I-95 including the cities, rain/snow to snow, 2-4 inches.

NW of the fall line- all snow but wont accumulate efficiently early on, 3-6 inches.

Westminster to Manchester, 6-8 inches

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Based on current guidance- GFS/Euro blend, taking into account the potential dynamic nature of the storm, lack of cold air mass and marginal low level temps, complete disregard for any and all model/weenie snow maps, and factoring in climo....here is my early call:

 

Along the bay and east to interior eastern shore- rain or rain/snow mix for at least half the event, 1-2 inches of snow

Right along I-95 including the cities, rain/snow to snow, 2-4 inches.

NW of the fall line- all snow but wont accumulate efficiently early on, 3-6 inches.

Westminster to Manchester, 6-8 inches

I'm thinking 2-3" cities/I-95 to the Bay. Then NW 4-6".

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Based on current guidance- GFS/Euro blend, taking into account the potential dynamic nature of the storm, lack of cold air mass and marginal low level temps, complete disregard for any and all model/weenie snow maps, and factoring in climo....here is my early call:

 

Along the bay and east to interior eastern shore- rain or rain/snow mix for at least half the event, 1-2 inches of snow

Right along I-95 including the cities, rain/snow to snow, 2-4 inches.

NW of the fall line- all snow but wont accumulate efficiently early on, 3-6 inches.

Westminster to Manchester, 6-8 inches

 

Sounds like a good call.

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