T. August Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Whoa, the ruddy duck has a bizarre blue beak. Never seen one of those. I actually do quite a bit of birdwatching, and they're pretty rare. I've only seen them once since Oct. 2009... so once in 5 years lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Deer be going crazy in my area tonight. Heard quite the ruckus when I let the dogs out No kidding. They are everywhere. My dog does a good job chasing them off but they keep coming back. Lots of ground venison on the roads too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Maybe snowy owls will return. Tho they really should stay away from cities. I was lucky enough to see one while it was snowing, which happened to be the day we got our Christmas tree. Perfect holiday atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Good evening everyone. Been a long time since I've been on the forum. How's everyone doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Just wanted to give a couple updates. Starting December 3rd Sterling will be adding new winter zones to better enhance terrain features from Loudoun north and east across central MD. Also, all snowfall grids/forecasts will go out to 72 hours versus 48 hours for all eastern region offices. In addition...we have restarted our winter probabilistic forecasts. Some improvements were made in the offseason. Last year we were initializing the grids with a 32 member solution heavily based on the sref. This year WPC will now include a 57 member ensemble for their percentiles. 25 members of the euro ensembles will be weighted in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Maybe snowy owls will return. Tho they really should stay away from cities. A couple days ago, I read that the Snowy Owls maybe will be making a return. A couple days ago, one was spotted/photographed in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I was lucky enough to see one while it was snowing, which happened to be the day we got our Christmas tree. Perfect holiday atmosphere. That is awesome! I did a day trip to Assateague when they were being spotted in January but sadly didn't see one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Just wanted to give a couple updates. Starting December 3rd Sterling will be adding new winter zones to better enhance terrain features from Loudoun north and east across central MD. Also, all snowfall grids/forecasts will go out to 72 hours versus 48 hours for all eastern region offices. In addition...we have restarted our winter probabilistic forecasts. Some improvements were made in the offseason. Last year we were initializing the grids with a 32 member solution heavily based on the sref. This year WPC will now include a 57 member ensemble for their percentiles. 25 members of the euro ensembles will be weighted in. Sounds great, appriciate the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Just wanted to give a couple updates. Starting December 3rd Sterling will be adding new winter zones to better enhance terrain features from Loudoun north and east across central MD. Also, all snowfall grids/forecasts will go out to 72 hours versus 48 hours for all eastern region offices. In addition...we have restarted our winter probabilistic forecasts. Some improvements were made in the offseason. Last year we were initializing the grids with a 32 member solution heavily based on the sref. This year WPC will now include a 57 member ensemble for their percentiles. 25 members of the euro ensembles will be weighted in. All great news! I'm really excited to see how the new WPC probabilistic forecasts will work now that it seems it will be a lot more balanced given the new input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Justin Berk just posted some eye candy on Facebook. He's got the snow haters (people with dead souls) in a frenzy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 All great news! I'm really excited to see how the new WPC probabilistic forecasts will work now that it seems it will be a lot more balanced given the new input. The concept remains the same on the min/most likely/ max product. We took into account feedback given from this page over the offseason. The products no longer say 10 and 90 percentile but min and max potential. We still use the WPC 10 and 90 as a starting point then edit as needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 All great news! I'm really excited to see how the new WPC probabilistic forecasts will work now that it seems it will be a lot more balanced given the new input. The concept remains the same on the min/most likely/ max product. We took into account feedback given from this page over the offseason. The products no longer say 10 and 90 percentile but min and max potential. We still use the WPC 10 and 90 as a starting point then edit as needed. Just got posted to twitter from @whatdoweseehere of the new WPC output grid. Looks like they just downscale the ensemble output by the methodology seen here. Looks pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The concept remains the same on the min/most likely/ max product. We took into account feedback given from this page over the offseason. The products no longer say 10 and 90 percentile but min and max potential. We still use the WPC 10 and 90 as a starting point then edit as needed. That's cool. We (as a forum) will still probably have debates about min/max potential regardless It's certainly a solid product when executed properly. Might be worth adding a footnote on the max/min stating that a greater range could imply greater uncertainty with the forecast, or something that visually represents the amount of confidence in the forecast. I know that forecast confidence is usually mentioned in the written discussions, but a lot of the time that can get lost when people just grab the graphic, throw it on Twitter and make their own conclusions just from the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 That's cool. We (as a forum) will still probably have debates about min/max potential regardless It's certainly a solid product when executed properly. Might be worth adding a footnote on the max/min stating that a greater range could imply greater uncertainty with the forecast, or something that visually represents the amount of confidence in the forecast. I know that forecast confidence is usually mentioned in the written discussions, but a lot of the time that can get lost when people just grab the graphic, throw it on Twitter and make their own conclusions just from the map. You are right that's a problem. The product is mainly intended for use by emergency managers for planning. They understand the certainty/uncertainty best. It's unfortunate when people take the max and tweet it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 We also ran case studies over the summer that showed that in some cases... One in particular at Millers in Northern Baltimore county on Feb12-13 the 90 th percentile was actually too low. This is mainly due to mesoscale banding...localized impacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Welcome back! I enjoyed your insights last season, and look forward to hearing from you often this season. It is great to have another person on the board with an inside perspective and can further explain a lot of the products we all use both individually and when attempting to inform others. Hope all has been well with you. Thanks much! Good to be back. Thanks for the note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Just wanted to give a couple updates. Starting December 3rd Sterling will be adding new winter zones to better enhance terrain features from Loudoun north and east across central MD. Also, all snowfall grids/forecasts will go out to 72 hours versus 48 hours for all eastern region offices. In addition...we have restarted our winter probabilistic forecasts. Some improvements were made in the offseason. Last year we were initializing the grids with a 32 member solution heavily based on the sref. This year WPC will now include a 57 member ensemble for their percentiles. 25 members of the euro ensembles will be weighted in.Awesome, thanks for the update. Post this in the winter thread in case it gets lost here. ETA: just saw you posted in there already. Great minds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Pity T-Storm Watch issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Pity T-Storm Watch issued???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 No kidding. They are everywhere. My dog does a good job chasing them off but they keep coming back. Lots of ground venison on the roads too. i see a mother and baby every morning when taking the kiddo to daycare. but yeah, passed quite a few dead along the highway. Pity T-Storm Watch issued SPC was having technical difficulties this morning, so watches were being sent out that didn't actually exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 In non-weather news, a spacecraft is attempting to land on a comet right now: http://new.livestream.com/esa/cometlanding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 ???? Norman was having issues with old watches going out? Some sort of computer glitch. Supposed to be fixed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 In non-weather news, a spacecraft is attempting to land on a comet right now: http://new.livestream.com/esa/cometlanding pics of the comet are just stunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 And we just successfully landed a probe on a comet. Damn. I hope it doesn't find ebola there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Landing on a comet simultaneously with the 12z GFS! My cup runneth over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Landing on a comet simultaneously with the 12z GFS! My cup runneth over. #nerdfest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 pics of the comet are just stunning Wow, yes. Really amazing stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I cant keep track of all the different models being used now... multiple GFS' versions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Chinese attack supposedly caused NOAA's recent outage: http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/chinese-hack-us-weather-systems-satellite-network/2014/11/12/bef1206a-68e9-11e4-b053-65cea7903f2e_story.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Can I call dibs on the December thread? It's my birthday month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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