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November 2014 Obs and Disco


Bob Chill

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It will be interesting to see what happens this weekend. GFS shows a fairly strong coastal sunday and the parallel shows nothing at all. I suppose it's possible that the resolution on the parallel does a better job handling the stream interaction down in the gulf. OTOH- the higher resolution could be magnifying errors early in the run.

The fun question is are 2 gfses better than one or none?

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It will be interesting to see what happens this weekend. GFS shows a fairly strong coastal sunday and the parallel shows nothing at all. I suppose it's possible that the resolution on the parallel does a better job handling the stream interaction down in the gulf. OTOH- the higher resolution could be magnifying errors early in the run.

The fun question is are 2 gfses better than one or none?

Obviously better.  When the standard GFS shows a storm and the 13km doesn't, we can say "well, it's a beta-version of the GFS for a reason...". Then the 13km shows a storm and the standard doesn't we can say "the higher resolution of the 13km GFS can better capture the phase.  Toss the old GFS".  

 

And the best part?  There's lots of truthiness to both points!  

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Pattern setting up looks a lot like November 2002 for whatever that's worth.  

 

 

 

76,02,& 59 have been all over CPC d11+ lately. All 3 we're quite blocky winters but unfortunately only 1 was snowy.... 59-60 was respectable on the totals but sucked bad until March. No thanks. 

 

Hopefully we don't have too much blocking....lol...it's possible. 

 

500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

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76,02,& 59 have been all over CPC d11+ lately. All 3 we're quite blocky winters but unfortunately only 1 was snowy.... 59-60 was respectable on the totals but sucked bad until March. No thanks. 

 

Hopefully we don't have too much blocking....lol...it's possible. 

 

500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

Interesting. Super-ensemble would suggest the AO is a little more neutral than what the Operationals and regular GEFS would suggest.  That is a better match with 76.  

 

post-51-0-78578800-1415127732_thumb.png

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is it me, or are the 12z runs of the Euro always colder than the 0z?

last night's run took away a decent bit of the cold yesterday's 12z had, but it's right back there again on today's 12z

maybe it's just the time (7AM vs. 7PM), but I don't think so because I'm just looking at the 850 temps

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Might be time for a mid range thread that's separate from obs.

 

I wanted to talk about how it's cloudy again. We've become upstate NY this fall. 

It has been a really cloudy last couple months. 

 

I was thinking of waiting until the middle of the month (i.e., December was at least at 384hrs), but we do have some interesting events coming up potentially.  Go for it if you'd like. 

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NAM essentially shuts out DC and south tomorrow, drizzle fest for Central MD. Best rains are from Hagerstown to Garrett County. 0.4" line is from about Leesburg to Ellicott City to Baltimore and then up I-95. DCA barely gets 0.1". Meh, so much for Euro's/WPC wet solution

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NAM essentially shuts out DC and south tomorrow, drizzle fest for Central MD. Best rains are from Hagerstown to Garrett County. 0.4" line is from about Leesburg to Ellicott City to Baltimore and then up I-95. DCA barely gets 0.1". Meh, so much for Euro's/WPC wet solution

So you trust one run over the best model and the best forecasters?

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