Bob Chill Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 It will be interesting to see what happens this weekend. GFS shows a fairly strong coastal sunday and the parallel shows nothing at all. I suppose it's possible that the resolution on the parallel does a better job handling the stream interaction down in the gulf. OTOH- the higher resolution could be magnifying errors early in the run. The fun question is are 2 gfses better than one or none? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 It will be interesting to see what happens this weekend. GFS shows a fairly strong coastal sunday and the parallel shows nothing at all. I suppose it's possible that the resolution on the parallel does a better job handling the stream interaction down in the gulf. OTOH- the higher resolution could be magnifying errors early in the run. The fun question is are 2 gfses better than one or none? Obviously better. When the standard GFS shows a storm and the 13km doesn't, we can say "well, it's a beta-version of the GFS for a reason...". Then the 13km shows a storm and the standard doesn't we can say "the higher resolution of the 13km GFS can better capture the phase. Toss the old GFS". And the best part? There's lots of truthiness to both points! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 Pretty nice snowstorm in MN's homeland next week on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Pattern setting up looks a lot like November 2002 for whatever that's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 Pattern setting up looks a lot like November 2002 for whatever that's worth. 76,02,& 59 have been all over CPC d11+ lately. All 3 we're quite blocky winters but unfortunately only 1 was snowy.... 59-60 was respectable on the totals but sucked bad until March. No thanks. Hopefully we don't have too much blocking....lol...it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Check the 12z GFS-P, CRAZY COLD. Wow, I mean that is COLD for the heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 76,02,& 59 have been all over CPC d11+ lately. All 3 we're quite blocky winters but unfortunately only 1 was snowy.... 59-60 was respectable on the totals but sucked bad until March. No thanks. Hopefully we don't have too much blocking....lol...it's possible. Interesting. Super-ensemble would suggest the AO is a little more neutral than what the Operationals and regular GEFS would suggest. That is a better match with 76. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Pretty nice snowstorm in MN's homeland next week on the euro. One of the all-time great MN weather events was the Armistice Day blizzard of 1940, so not unprecedented for a big storm up there at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 is it me, or are the 12z runs of the Euro always colder than the 0z? last night's run took away a decent bit of the cold yesterday's 12z had, but it's right back there again on today's 12z maybe it's just the time (7AM vs. 7PM), but I don't think so because I'm just looking at the 850 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Might be time for a mid range thread that's separate from obs. I wanted to talk about how it's cloudy again. We've become upstate NY this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Bay Breeze in effect here. Only 59-60 at KMTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Might be time for a mid range thread that's separate from obs. I wanted to talk about how it's cloudy again. We've become upstate NY this fall. It has been a really cloudy last couple months. I was thinking of waiting until the middle of the month (i.e., December was at least at 384hrs), but we do have some interesting events coming up potentially. Go for it if you'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 High of 65F today. Currently 60F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Check the 12z GFS-P, CRAZY COLD. Wow, I mean that is COLD for the heart of winter.Doesnt look crazy to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Doesnt look crazy to me Well, the lows on the 12th were pretty cold. It shows 19F in northern Baltimore County. That's the only day that stuck out to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Well, the wunderground forecast graphic shows -80 for lows on Wednesday and Thursday. Probably not what the GFS is showing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Well, the wunderground forecast graphic shows -80 for lows on Wednesday and Thursday. Probably not what the GFS is showing though. Sounds delightful. Might even be a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 65 degrees when I left the house just after 4:00 a.m. Higher than the forecasted high temps for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Gfs looks really boring and not all that cold....hype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Gfs looks really boring and not all that cold....hype http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=nhem&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=10day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest take that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=nhem&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=10day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest take that! fringed...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 fringed...lol flip through the Euro at this link....it's pretty cold and day 10 almost looks interesting http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/mean-sea-level-pressure-wind-speed-850-hpa-and-geopotential-500-hpa?area=North%20America&step=0&relative_archive_date=2014093012¶meter=Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 GFS - Maybe .5" tomorrow NAM - an 1"+ for areas closer to and north of Baltimore. LWX - Amounts could surpass 1 inch along the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 48.5F for the low here. This morning is one of the rare occasions when the lows around the Bay are colder than inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 NAM essentially shuts out DC and south tomorrow, drizzle fest for Central MD. Best rains are from Hagerstown to Garrett County. 0.4" line is from about Leesburg to Ellicott City to Baltimore and then up I-95. DCA barely gets 0.1". Meh, so much for Euro's/WPC wet solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 NAM really did cut back on the precip. Quite a difference between the 12Z and 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 NAM essentially shuts out DC and south tomorrow, drizzle fest for Central MD. Best rains are from Hagerstown to Garrett County. 0.4" line is from about Leesburg to Ellicott City to Baltimore and then up I-95. DCA barely gets 0.1". Meh, so much for Euro's/WPC wet solution So you trust one run over the best model and the best forecasters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 So you trust one run over the best model and the best forecasters?Euro was really the last one to become drier. The system isn't that impressive. And WPC was mainly basing their forecast off Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 And WPC has dropped their totals. .5" line along and to the N/W of the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Rain. Quite a bit. Surprised to wake up to that. Pops now say 100%. Guessing the handing of this system won't go down in the weather model hall of fame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.