WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I'll mention this year since this is as 24-48 hour out event: GFS-13km has a nice solution for tomorrow evening with a respectable amount of precip. 850 temps are well below freezing but surface temps are still above freezing. With the cold advection, I'd guess a pretty steep lapse rate in the low-levels which would suggest a low freezing height. Several hours of snow melting on contact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I'll mention this year since this is as 24-48 hour out event: GFS-13km has a nice solution for tomorrow evening with a respectable amount of precip. 850 temps are well below freezing but surface temps are still above freezing. With the cold advection, I'd guess a pretty steep lapse rate in the low-levels which would suggest a low freezing height. Several hours of snow melting on contact? Good enough for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 I'll mention this year since this is as 24-48 hour out event: GFS-13km has a nice solution for tomorrow evening with a respectable amount of precip. 850 temps are well below freezing but surface temps are still above freezing. With the cold advection, I'd guess a pretty steep lapse rate in the low-levels which would suggest a low freezing height. Several hours of snow melting on contact? 12z RGEM lays down .10 - .15 through the metros and burbs. 4pm to 10pm timeframe thurs. Best panel is 4pm-7pm. Interesting.ETA: euro is a paltry .05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 12z RGEM lays down .10 - .15 through the metros and burbs. 4pm to 10pm timeframe thurs. Best panel is 4pm-7pm. Interesting. ETA: euro is a paltry .05 It would be pretty cool to see snow for a few hours, even though no accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 12z RGEM lays down .10 - .15 through the metros and burbs. 4pm to 10pm timeframe thurs. Best panel is 4pm-7pm. Interesting. ETA: euro is a paltry .05 RGEM precip type says rain, but is pretty hefty on amounts relative to the other guidance. GFS and NAM soundings are cold enough for snow, but pretty dry in the boundary layer. #Virgafest2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 RGEM precip type says rain, but is pretty hefty on amounts relative to the other guidance. GFS and NAM soundings are cold enough for snow, but pretty dry in the boundary layer. #Virgafest2014 The only smart play is to blend the wettest model with the coldest model. They teach that in Weenie 101. Most of us got an A in that class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Arctic fronts are just not the same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Temps down to freezing at Dolly Sods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Arctic fronts are just not the same here truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Cold air slowly and I mean SLOWLY moving east. Frostburg now in the 30s. Temps in the 40s showing up in and around Hagerstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Snips from LWX... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC402 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014.(snip)BANDING PRECIP EXPECTED IN BETWEEN THE UPR AND SFC FEATURES THISEVENING...MAINLY OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE LWX CWA. LOCAL WRFS DEPICTBANDS EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER 20Z...LINGERING OVER BALTIMOREUNTIL 03 TO 05Z. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DIURNAL COOLINGCOMBINE FOR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LATER SHIFTSWILL NEED TO MONITOR INTENSITY OF THE BANDS...AS ANYTHINGAPPROACHING MODERATE COULD RESULT IN A BURST OF SNOW OVER A NARROWAREA. THIS IS QUITE EARLY IN THE SEASON AND THE GROUND IS WARM SOANY ACCUM (CURRENTLY ONE TO A FEW TENTHS INCH STORM TOTAL) WOULD BEON GRASSY SURFACES.IN THE ALLEGHENIES...SNOW ONSET LATE THIS MORNING WITH FIRST BANDS.WLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE...BUT MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES FETCH ISNORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON. TOTAL ACCUMULATION THROUGH TONIGHT IS ONETO TWO INCHES WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Both 06z GFS/NAM have a little RASN action tonight for the Westminster area (per Cobb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Surface temps are going to be above freezing this evening, but the freezing level is pretty low and the dew points are at or below zero at all levels. Certainly should be ok for many of us to at least see some snowflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Surface temps are going to be above freezing this evening, but the freezing level is pretty low and the dew points are at or below zero at all levels. Certainly should be ok for many of us to at least see some snowflakes. can't ask for much more this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 JB2 says you might see your first stickage of the season. can't ask for much more this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Hit freezing inland for the 4th time this November. 32F was the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I'll wait until I see precip actually occur before I get worried about what kind it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 JB2 says you might see your first stickage of the season. So I've seen on twitter. Ava mentioned Parkton too... just seeing flakes fall would be a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 12z GFS actually shows a dusting just north of DC through NE MD. Surface would be below freezing during this time (12z tomorrow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The later we can get precip to hang on, the better. I still think any accumulation is a long shot, even for the coldest spots. if it comes down decently hard for an hour or so, it might be enough to get mappy a 0.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 jnis, you're back. We're gonna need another Vortex of Doom song this winter! There is a first flakes thread by the way, y'alls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 jnis, you're back. We're gonna need another Vortex of Doom song this winter! There is a first flakes thread by the way, y'alls.Hey There,I didn't see the first flakes thread lol...I'm on my phone. Yeah, I'll have to come up with another verse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Hey There, I didn't see the first flakes thread lol...I'm on my phone. Yeah, I'll have to come up with another verse I still laugh thinking about the distorted vocals. Vortex of Doooooooom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Dewpoint is above freezing for the first time all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 31.4. First official freeze IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Looks like DCA will hold at 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 19F for the low according to local Wxbug station. It's wonderfully cold out, but I don't know.... *Edit KOKV shows 32F for the low, which is absurd. I don't know about 19F being accurate, especially by the same thermometer that showed a low of 37F the other morning when I was using a hammer and chisel to remove ice from all over our cars, but I sure as heck don't believe it's 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 19F for the low according to local Wxbug station. It's wonderfully cold out, but I don't know.... *Edit KOKV shows 32F for the low, which is absurd. I don't know about 19F being accurate, especially by the same thermometer that showed a low of 37F the other morning when I was using a hammer and chisel to remove ice from all over our cars, but I sure as heck don't believe it's 32F. All of the wunderground stations near you were upper 20s to around 30. Quite chilly out there when the breeze picks up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Yesterday typifies my ideal T-giving day weather. Slate gray clouds, cold, a little breeze and some snow in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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