Bob Chill Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Important month is upon us. Great mood weather to kick it off. All guidance is pointing towards a below normal first half of the month with a nice pattern down the line. Early indications of the AO going negative by d10. Snow in SC? Big winter incoming...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Accumulating snow in Lexington SC on Nov 1. This a portending? Meanwhile I got an inch of rain here and still raining. Crappy Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Important month is upon us. Great mood weather to kick it off. All guidance is pointing towards a below normal first half of the month with a nice pattern down the line. Early indications of the AO going negative by d10. Snow in SC? Big winter incoming...lol I remember when Brownsville Texas had snow before we did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I remember when Brownsville Texas had snow before we did... remember, I think it was the 01/02 winter, when parts of Florida had flurries before us? EDIT: on second thought, I think it was during the 07/08 debacle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I just mowed the front lawn really tight so the leaves won't get stuck. Probably stimping at around 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Brutal cold today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 d10 pattern is pretty secsy #historicwinter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Brutal cold today I know, it's nearly 50F, and only 15 - 20 degrees warmer than parts of NC/SC/GA?/etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 d10 pattern is pretty secsy #historicwinter Let me guess, more windy / dry for us and snows for the southeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 d10 pattern is pretty secsy #historicwinter Was just coming to say this. GEFS has a solidly -AO for the next 15 days. PV gets pushed south toward Hudson Bay with some real frigid air not too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 d10 pattern is pretty secsy #historicwinter I smell JI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 When's our next thread worthy event? This one was a real thriller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 Was just coming to say this. GEFS has a solidly -AO for the next 15 days. PV gets pushed south toward Hudson Bay with some real frigid air not too far away. The whole d10-15 look on the gefs says split flow possible to me. Really outstanding look. If this was Dec I would be pretty fired up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 The whole d10-15 look on the gefs says split flow possible to me. Really outstanding look. If this was Dec I would be pretty fired up. Why not be fired up anyway? It just snowed in the low elevations of SC on Nov 1. Thanksgiving snow. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 When's our next thread worthy event? This one was a real thriller. Our separate threads for sprinkle events always win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Our separate threads for sprinkle events always win. Ain't it so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 High of 52.0F. New lowest max this fall. Were the clouds supposed to clear around this time? I feel like we could end up lower than the forecast tonight if the clearing continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Getting some clearing here, though still largely overcast. Drying out a bit too, 51.1/38 on the VP2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 Euro ensembles lock step with GEFS d10-15. Euro looks even tastier... I'm itching to track something even if it's likely a climo fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 Wow, I fish a good bit on the bay and check marine weather quite a bit. It's very rare to have 7ft wave forecasts in the middle bay. Tomorrow is going to be down right nasty out there ANZ532-020800-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH-430 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAYMORNING...REST OF THIS AFTERNOONN WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WAVES6 FT. RAIN.TONIGHTN WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WAVES 7 FT. ACHANCE OF RAIN.SUNNW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WAVES 7 FT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 7 ft waves... that's incredible. I'm expecting 40-45 mph gusts up here, with maybe sustained 20-25 mph. The highest waves I've seen here were back in Feb of 2011. I forget the date exactly, but those winds were crazy. They came from the WNW, and the waves were about 2 ft . That doesn't sound like much, but the inlet is only 2-3 ft deep in most places. I lost 3 or 4 trees that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Pretty sky tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Cold precip is working Mainly south and a bit west on Radar. Wonder if any gets cold enough for a mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 40 degrees with some light rain wraparound. NNE winds at 15 mph with gusts to 30mph. Perfect conditions for a morning wakeup jebwalk! Maan. Maine is gonna get plastered with heavy snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 It's baaaaaaack! sorta http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=nhem&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=10day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Low of 42F. I had a peak gust of 35 mph at 8:42 AM. Frequent gusts to near 30 mph. Currently 45F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 39 was the low....41 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Major inversion Tuesday Morning? 12z RGEM has sfc at 0C for "DC" at 8:00am, about 15C at 975-950mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 49/25 and still windy. No water in the inlet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 I remember last year we had a long range discussion thread. 2 weeks+ outlook. I really liked it. Can we/should we do it again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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