LithiaWx Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Marietta, You didn't question my stats. You pretty bashed them and trashed them right at the start as per this: "It's not scientific, period. The current ESNO is not even weak nino yet, it may end up there but are we basing this on the current state or weak nino? Also what constitutes a normal or cold November or a normal/cold/warm winter? The stats don't prove anything. I hate to be that harsh but they are of no predictive value as you can manipulate those numbers a bunch of different ways and come out with a different look." This isn't questioning or discussing. This is bashing, plain and simple. Dude, you know me. You should know I don't have any ill feelings towards you and enjoy your posts. I mean we have talked about personal stuff in PM's before. I think if I had used a less brash start we wouldn't be here. That said, I said what I did and it obviously came across more personally and harsh than intended. I stated a few times today I enjoy reading your stats and think you provide an invaluable addition to the board. That said I do think you may have stretched the value of your stats this time. JMO but yes I think it was a stretch to go there using your ATL stats to suggest a colder winter is more likely based on a colder November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Thanks! I'm not sure how much longer I'll run it though. I have graphic novel (or "comic book" really) project in mind that will require too much time. Why do you want to hurt me like that? What have I, or the Jets, ever done to you? You don't think we are painfully aware of our irrelevance in professional football? Hey, I gave them a chance!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Come on man you specifically stated that there would be a ton of people really bummed on the last event. What did we see? A ton of surprised folks. Your basis of thought and analysis is deeply rooted in pessimism, but you never brings cold hard stats or facts to the table in your arguement. You just state that you don't think its going to happen or that people are hyping it to get subscribers. Its a joke that you can't appreciate the time and effort that some poster put into providing us with great info. Instead you just bash it with little to no evidence behind your bashing. Thanks for wasting my time reading through the mess you caused in the discussion thread. It was absolutely uncalled for and proves what most already knew about you. It's the other side of the coin. I do like playing up the contrarian point of view. I'll give you that the last little event I was dismissive with no facts to back it up. That said, that is not my style. I don't just bash with nothing of substance to back up my point of view. I've got a long history of posting and my body of work is not something I'm ashamed of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 This has just gotten weird. Can you imagine what this place will be like come Feb if it's cold and snowless..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Can you imagine what this place will be like come Feb if it's cold and snowless..... I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Picking 33 analog years (using criteria that can be slightly manipulated to give different years) from one reporting station and claiming that you can take those results and forecast future outcomes isn't a method based in science. Correlation does not equal causation and there are other factors you have to consider that aren't being discussed. PICK YOUR OWN YEARS. Damn. You don't like his data, PICK YOUR OWN. You're lazy. Let someone else do the work so you can be critical? And NO WHERE did Larry say that this winter would be cold for certain based on his data. It is one piece of a very large puzzle, and the vast majority of those puzzle pieces point toward cold. What if his numbers showed the opposite, would you still be a jerk? What do you think all of these meteorologist do? EVERY ONE OF THEM uses analogs to help figure out what's going to happen. You did read the word "help" didn't you. Just want to make sure you don't misunderstand. Help. As in assist. His data helps to predict what may happen. You're not debating anything, you're flat telling Larry that his data is meaningless. If that's all you get out of what he did, you just need to keep it to yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Killed me a decent buck with my bow yesterday evening! 11pointer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Killed me a decent buck with my bow yesterday evening! 11pointer. Hell if thats decent I would love to see what you consider good.....I shot a nice 8 pter ( for around here anyways) 10 days ago or so, and I have 10 days off starting Friday and next week is bear season........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I almost hit a Bobcat with my truck the other morning. Been a long time since I've seen one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Hell if thats decent I would love to see what you consider good.....I shot a nice 8 pter ( for around here anyways) 10 days ago or so, and I have 10 days off starting Friday and next week is bear season........ Cool, I love bear hunting also. I went to Maine last year and killed a 385# bear shot him 20yds away me sitting in a chair on the ground, WOW what an experience!!! I tried to make pic bigger but it's goes to big and blurry? It's either that small size or to big? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Hey, I gave them a chance!! You're actually giving more than I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I almost hit a Bobcat with my truck the other morning. Been a long time since I've seen one. I would love to kill me a bobcat to mount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 PICK YOUR OWN YEARS. Damn. You don't like his data, PICK YOUR OWN. You're lazy. Let someone else do the work so you can be critical? And NO WHERE did Larry say that this winter would be cold for certain based on his data. It is one piece of a very large puzzle, and the vast majority of those puzzle pieces point toward cold. What if his numbers showed the opposite, would you still be a jerk? What do you think all of these meteorologist do? EVERY ONE OF THEM uses analogs to help figure out what's going to happen. You did read the word "help" didn't you. Just want to make sure you don't misunderstand. Help. As in assist. His data helps to predict what may happen. You're not debating anything, you're flat telling Larry that his data is meaningless. If that's all you get out of what he did, you just need to keep it to yourself. Yes, in this particular case I do believe the data as presented while not meaningless, is not a very good indicator of how the winter will end up. I'm entitled to that opinion, as you are entitled to the opinion that I am a jerk and lazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Saw the fall weather thread had 4 new pages after work today.. Nope, just a few folks who need to have the last word. Or had the day off. It was a let down... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I would love to kill me a bobcat to mount. He was 30/40 pounds about the size of one of my boxers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Saw the fall weather thread had 4 new pages after work today.. Nope, just a few folks who need to have the last word. Or had the day off. It was a let down... Sent from my iPhone I was actually getting paid to write all of those posts today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Sounds good. I assume then that you will get the last word. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Yes, in this particular case I do believe the data as presented while not meaningless, is not a very good indicator of how the winter will end up. I'm entitled to that opinion, as you are entitled to the opinion that I am a jerk and lazy. What should the years be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 He was 30/40 pounds about the size of one of my boxers WOW, Very nice one!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 MODS -- Please redirect this bickering ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Yeah, I nearly wrecked my F250. He was less than a quarter mile from the house so I may see him again this winter in my chicken coop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 What I learned today in the SE forum : 1. Never question Larry's stats 2. Anyone not on board with a banner winter year is a troll and doesn't know what they are talking about. 3. Discussion that doesn't meet the above two statements should not be tolerated. 4. Brick is a better poster than me. Did I miss anything? Here's the problem I have with what you said to Larry... 1. He is not giving a forecast, or even a theory that is up for critique. He is simply pulling out statistic's that everyone can use to create their own assumptions. This work is tedious and time-consuming. Everyone on this board should appreciate the effort he puts forth in compiling these numbers. If you don't like the methodology he used to compile these numbers, then pull your own using whatever parameters you think are important and if you find data that conflicts or agrees with what Larry's data shows, share it with us and we can have a real discussion. 2. Larry has been on this board long enough that you know good and well he's not cherry picking analog's to create an arguement for a cold winter. 3. Larry has also absolutely nailed long range forecast in the past using this statsitcal approach (sidenote: He's not even offering a forecast in the post you attacked him on). Enough so, that I believe it has opened the eye's of seasoned met's on this board. In fact, this statistical approach is one of the main reasons I visit this board as I believe it adds a different element to predicting weather as opposed to anlayzing model output. Have you forgotten the bold prediction he made about snow falling in Savannah following extrme -AO outbreaks that verified to perfection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 What should the years be? None. This will be my last post on the subject. I don't believe you can come to any conclusions using one reporting station based on how cold/warm/average a November is and the current ENSO state. While it may be a fun fact it doesn't have scientific value. JMO If it had a predictive value don't you think someone would have discovered that by now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Killed me a decent buck with my bow yesterday evening! 11pointer. Hell yeah buddy, yee hawwwwwwwwww.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I think I clicked on the wrong regional sub forum today! Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 DD2 gtg cancelled due to fantasy , possible snow on the GFS! ALEET! ALEET! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Nice to see the damn political signs being taken down... And i've never hunted anything in my life...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Nice to see the damn political signs being taken down... And i've never hunted anything in my life...LOL I hunt woman and buffets, both very successfully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I hunt woman and buffets, both very successfully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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