November Banter

[Bevo]

Well, what else are we supposed to use as evidence when it comes to forecasting other than science and what we have known to happen in the past with similar conditions and indicators? That's what we use as evidence unless we can travel into the future. 

 

Don't try to trick me with your time bending skills. I know you've already been there. You've seen it. That's why you're so determined right now.

[Bevo]

In the context that he used. The evidence are the indicators that have happened and are known facts. 

 

Correct, but no single year is a carbon copy of the previous year (at least here in the SE).

 

I go back to the three previous winters: none performed the way they should have statistically, progged or index wise.

[Reb]

Looks like Marietta has taken over this thread. Surprised it's being tolerated.

[Brick Tamland]

I did say productive and helpful, didn't I? You missed that part, did you?

 

However, it's never going to be the tool that gives difinitive answers. It can certainly guide us. But if you are banking on the parameters yeilding the same results, you've missed the last three winters somehow.

 

Brick, you have to inject some amount of reason. Larry certainly does. It's not like he's throwing around a bunch of numbers like a candy tosser in a parade. But there are two sides to every coin - it is not unreasonable to look at both.

 

This is not like the last three winters. The last three winters didn't have so many mets saying they think there will be above average snow here. The last three winters didn't have this much evidence based on the same scientific indicators of the past. I am sure the mets that have come up with their forecasts that say above average snowfall here have looked at everything. And based on the scientific indicators and evidence they see, they have made their forecast. No one is saying it is unreasonable to look at both sides. But it is unreasonable to go against the majority of the indicators that call for a big winter and be pessimistic about it.

[Brick Tamland]

Correct, but no single year is a carbon copy of the previous year (at least here in the SE).

 

I go back to the three previous winters: none performed the way they should have statistically, progged or index wise.

 

That is true. But based on the evidence that we have from the past and what we are seeing this winter, the majority of the evidence points to this being a big winter for snow here. Maybe it won't. But the odds are much more in favor of it will based on that evidence, and that is why it is more reasonable to be optimistic.

[Bevo]

This is not like the last three winters. The last three winters didn't have so many mets saying they think there will be above average snow here. The last three winters didn't have this much evidence based on the same scientific indicators of the past. I am sure the mets that have come up with their forecasts that say above average snowfall here have looked at everything. And based on the scientific indicators and evidence they see, they have made their forecast. No one is saying it is unreasonable to look at both sides. But it is unreasonable to go against the majority of the indicators that call for a big winter and be pessimistic about it.

You know, this is no longer a "Fall Discussion". It's banter. See you over there.

[franklin NCwx]

Looks like Marietta has taken over this thread. Surprised it's being tolerated.

today marks the day brick tamland became a better poster than MariettaWx.

[Bevo]

That is true. But based on the evidence that we have from the past and what we are seeing this winter, the majority of the evidence points to this being a big winter for snow here. Maybe it won't. But the odds are much more in favor of it will based on that evidence, and that is why it is more reasonable to be optimistic.

 

Whatever, Time Lord. You're never this optimistic. You are a time traveling SOB.

[Cold Rain]

I'm not sure Larry has said that certain things cause the winter to be cold. What I have understood him to say is that certain things (that he has tediously shown, mind you) correlate to a cold winter.

So the whole "correlation does not equal causation" argument is a straw man.

I have enjoyed reading all of the cold winter forecasts and presented data for this winter. If anyone is forecasting warmth, I hope it is based upon the best science that is available. If it is, then it should be given due attention and respect.

Picking apart data (or a position based on scientific evidence) with no counter evidence to support that position seems like trolling.

[packbacker]

Correct, but no single year is a carbon copy of the previous year (at least here in the SE).

 

I go back to the three previous winters: none performed the way they should have statistically, progged or index wise.

 

Agreed, there isn't any guarantees, but that wasn't Larry's point in his post.  His point was that in warm neutrals to low end moderate nino's if November is colder than average the winters are typically colder than average.   Larry backed that up with stats over 33 winters, Marietta stated this "Ok guys, mark my words.  A great pattern can only last so long before it eventually flips the opposite direction, usually with the same ferocity as the original extreme, just the polar opposite. 2010-2011 comes to mind where it was cold from December through early Feb where it abruptly stopped and went crazy warm for the rest of the winter.  We are wasting a good pattern too early."

 

For this winter if we get a weak nino, and if we get a +PDO and if we get a -AO then there is very good possibility of colder/snowier winter based on previous winters with the same variables.  You can't argue this, it's unarguable.  Now, you can argue on whether we actually get a weak nino and whether the PDO stays positive and whether we get a -AO across DJF.  There are other variables but those are the big ones and to keep things simple.

[frazdaddy]

Whatever, Time Lord. You're never this optimistic. You are a time traveling SOB.

He's got you Bevo. Admit it and let it go.

[Brick Tamland]

Whatever, Time Lord. You're never this optimistic. You are a time traveling SOB.

 

You found me out.

 

[Bevo]

 

Agreed, there isn't any guarantees, but that wasn't Larry's point in his post.  His point was that in warm neutrals to low end moderate nino's if November is colder than average the winters are typically colder than average.   Larry backed that up with stats over 33 winters, Marietta stated this "Ok guys, mark my words.  A great pattern can only last so long before it eventually flips the opposite direction, usually with the same ferocity as the original extreme, just the polar opposite. 2010-2011 comes to mind where it was cold from December through early Feb where it abruptly stopped and went crazy warm for the rest of the winter.  We are wasting a good pattern too early."

 

For this winter if we get a weak nino, and if we get a +PDO and if we get a -AO then there is very good possibility of colder/snowier winter based on previous winters with the same variables.  You can't argue this, it's unarguable.  Now, you can argue on whether we actually get a weak nino and whether the PDO stays positive and whether we get a -AO across DJF.

 

 

I'm not arguing Larry's numbers. I'm asserting that until we see materialization, there's nothing to do but speculate at this point. So, basically that last bit you talked about. I believe many (in general) have taken the various met proggs and winter forecasts as gospel, which is a mistake.

[Bevo]

He's got you Bevo. Admit it and let it go.

 

That's the third time I've been "Time Lorded" too. I swore I'd never let it happen again.

 

It's always the ones you'd least expect...

[PisgahNCWeather]

Don't understand being critical of Larry.  His analysis on weather over the years have been spot on.  If he is excited for this winter everyone should be.  Will say nothing is a slam dunk but this is the best look going into winter that we have seen for a long long

time.

[frazdaddy]

That's the third time I've been "Time Lorded" too. I swore I'd never let it happen again.

 

It's always the ones you'd least expect...

Hey very cool strips on your site btw.

[LithiaWx]

What I learned today in the SE forum :

 

1. Never question Larry's stats

2. Anyone not on board with a banner winter year is a troll and doesn't know what they are talking about.

3. Discussion that doesn't meet the above two statements should not be tolerated.

4. Brick is a better poster than me.

 

Did I miss anything?

[franklin NCwx]

I'm not sure Larry has said that certain things cause the winter to be cold. What I have understood him to say is that certain things (that he has tediously shown, mind you) correlate to a cold winter.

So the whole "correlation does not equal causation" argument is a straw man.

I have enjoyed reading all of the cold winter forecasts and presented data for this winter. If anyone is forecasting warmth, I hope it is based upon the best science that is available. If it is, then it should be given due attention and respect.

Picking apart data (or a position based on scientific evidence) with no counter evidence to support that position seems like trolling.

someone needs to take his anger and frustration back to pr.

[packbacker]

I'm not arguing Larry's numbers. I'm asserting that until we see materialization, there's nothing to do but speculate at this point. So, basically that last bit you talked about. I believe many (in general) have taken the various met proggs and winter forecasts as gospel, which is a mistake.

 

That I 100% agree with.  You know me, until I look out the window and see snow on the ground I don't buy cold/snowy winters until it occurs :-)

 

But I value Larry's research, you can question anyones research but have something to back your argument. 

[Brick Tamland]

What I learned today in the SE forum :

 

1. Never question Larry's stats

2. Anyone not on board with a banner winter year is a troll and doesn't know what they are talking about.

3. Discussion that doesn't meet the above two statements should not be tolerated.

4. Brick is a better poster than me.

 

Did I miss anything?

 

That's not even close to what people have said. Except for number 4.

[SnowNiner]

I think, as it always does, it comes down to sports analogy.  A warm, snowless winter this year is the New York Jets.  A cold snowy winter is the New England Patriots.  There's a chance the Jets win....really they could, anything could happen, but come on.  Everything you know about football tells you the Patriots are going to win.  You don't even need to see the odds to tell you who's going to win. 

 

So, yeah, there's a chance we could go warm this winter.  Definitely could happen.  But with all the indices, and all the statistics, it just doesn't seem likely.  I don't even need to read the outlooks when all the indices, history, and statistics are explained. 

 

With that said, yes.  Anything can happen and you never know.  Thank you sports, you help us in so much in life. 

[LithiaWx]

I think, as it always does, it comes down to sports analogy.  A warm, snowless winter this year is the New York Jets.  A cold snowy winter is the New England Patriots.  There's a chance the Jets win....really they could, anything could happen, but come on.  Everything you know about football tells you the Patriots are going to win.  You don't even need to see the odds to tell you who's going to win. 

 

So, yeah, there's a chance we could go warm this winter.  Definitely could happen.  But with all the indices, and all the statistics, it just doesn't seem likely.  I don't even need to read the outlooks when all the indices, history, and statistics are explained. 

 

With that said, yes.  Anything can happen and you never know.  Thank you sports, you help us in so much in life. 

 

Great analogy.

[LithiaWx]

someone needs to take his anger and frustration back to pr.

 

I look forward to schooling you there in the near future.

 

Come on guys, let it die or take it to banter, I'll be there waiting as well.

[frazdaddy]

So if the Jets are a warm snowless winter, does that make us Panthers 33 and rain

[MADDOGG]

Some very good questions marrietta instead of talking more in depth about possibilities for the up coming winter. People just want to kiss ass like always this place never changes

[GaWx]

What I learned today in the SE forum :

 

1. Never question Larry's stats

2. Anyone not on board with a banner winter year is a troll and doesn't know what they are talking about.

3. Discussion that doesn't meet the above two statements should not be tolerated.

4. Brick is a better poster than me.

 

Did I miss anything?

 

  Marietta,

  You didn't question my stats. You pretty bashed them and trashed them right at the start as per this:

 

 "It's not scientific, period.  The current ESNO is not even weak nino yet, it may end up there but are we basing this on the current state or weak nino?  Also what constitutes a normal or cold November or a normal/cold/warm winter?  The stats don't prove anything.  I hate to be that harsh but they are of no predictive value as you can manipulate those numbers a bunch of different ways and come out with a different look."

 

 This isn't questioning or discussing. This is bashing, plain and simple.

[GaWx]

Marietta said this in regard to my November analysis:

 

 'It's not scientific, period.  The current ESNO is not even weak nino yet, it may end up there but are we basing this on the current state or weak nino?  Also what constitutes a normal or cold November or a normal/cold/warm winter?  The stats don't prove anything.  I hate to be that harsh but they are of no predictive value as you can manipulate those numbers a bunch of different ways and come out with a different look."

 

 This isn't discussion. This is bashing. I'm not going to waste my time so that he can nitpick at me on every response and try to force me into a corner.

[Cold Rain]

This has just gotten weird.

[Hvward]

Please show me where I have been overly pessimistic about this winter.

Come on man you specifically stated that there would be a ton of people really bummed on the last event. What did we see? A ton of surprised folks. Your basis of thought and analysis is deeply rooted in pessimism, but you never brings cold hard stats or facts to the table in your arguement. You just state that you don't think its going to happen or that people are hyping it to get subscribers. Its a joke that you can't appreciate the time and effort that some poster put into providing us with great info. Instead you just bash it with little to no evidence behind your bashing. Thanks for wasting my time reading through the mess you caused in the discussion thread. It was absolutely uncalled for and proves what most already knew about you.

[Bevo]

Hey very cool strips on your site btw.

 

Thanks! I'm not sure how much longer I'll run it though. I have graphic novel (or "comic book" really) project in mind that will require too much time.

 

I think, as it always does, it comes down to sports analogy.  A warm, snowless winter this year is the New York Jets.  A cold snowy winter is the New England Patriots.  There's a chance the Jets win....really they could, anything could happen, but come on.  Everything you know about football tells you the Patriots are going to win.  You don't even need to see the odds to tell you who's going to win. 

 

So, yeah, there's a chance we could go warm this winter.  Definitely could happen.  But with all the indices, and all the statistics, it just doesn't seem likely.  I don't even need to read the outlooks when all the indices, history, and statistics are explained. 

 

With that said, yes.  Anything can happen and you never know.  Thank you sports, you help us in so much in life. 

 

Why do you want to hurt me like that? What have I, or the Jets, ever done to you? You don't think we are painfully aware of our irrelevance in professional football?