November Banter

[LithiaWx]

I'm going to make a prediction that the SE see a blizzard this season at some point.  We are due for a deep sub 1000mb GoM Miller A.

[pcbjr]

Seriously now ....

 

(tongue in cheek, or so I hope)

 

[GaWx]

I'm going to make a prediction that the SE see a blizzard this season at some point.  We are due for a deep sub 1000mb GoM Miller A.

Marietta,

Is this a serious prediction? I can't tell if you're being tongue in cheek here due to your hatred of hypers like JB. If you're serious, that is a heck of a prediction since getting a DEEP sub 1000 mb winter low while still in the Gulf is rare for the Miller A per 135 years of old wx maps. 3/1993, which was nicknamed the Storm of the Century, was appropriately named as I couldn't find another Gulf winter storm with anywhere near that low of a pressure down there (in the 970's).

Many of the biggest SE snow producers were produced by weak to moderate Gulf Miller A's. A 1010ish mb low is pretty typical. I didn't know if you were aware of this.

[LithiaWx]

Marietta,

Is this a serious prediction? I can't tell if you're being tongue in cheek here due to your hatred of hypers like JB. If you're serious, that is a heck of a prediction since getting a DEEP sub 1000 mb winter low while still in the Gulf is rare for the Miller A per 135 years of old wx maps. 3/1993, which was nicknamed the Storm of the Century, was appropriately named as I couldn't find another Gulf winter storm with anywhere near that low of a pressure down there (in the 970's).

Many of the biggest SE snow producers were produced by weak to moderate Gulf Miller A's. A 1010ish mb low is pretty typical. I didn't know if you were aware of this.

 

Yes, it was serious.  It is here in the banter because it is a gut guess. 

 

How many sub 1000mb lows have you seen near the Florida Panhandle in winter?  Was 1993 the last one?  Do you have records going back farther?

 

Oh 1993, I loved that storm : it was smack dab in the middle of a string of epic events in my hometown of Marietta that got me hooked on weather.

 

1992 - a hailstorm dropped 6" of hail imby from a single storm.  It was one of the more incredible weather events I've ever seen.

1993 - Blizzard of 1993 - 8-12" of powder with high winds and thunder snow.  Drifts well over a foot due to the winds approaching 50mph.

1995 - Opal - sustained winds over 60MPH with gusts to 81 at Dobbins AFB.

 

I was born in 1981 so these events were very impactful on my youth and brought me to where I am now.

[GaWx]

Yes, it was serious.  It is here in the banter because it is a gut guess. 

 

How many sub 1000mb lows have you seen near the Florida Panhandle in winter?  Was 1993 the last one?  Do you have records going back farther?

Off the top of my head, I don't know if 1993 was the last sub 1000 winter low/Miller A SE winter storm producing low that was near the FL panhandle. I'd have to recheck the maps to make sure none was, say, 995-999ish. These aren't records for which I made a list. However, when I get time, I can check.

When you say deep sub 1000 for your Gulf prediction, do you mean 999 or lower in the Gulf? I was thinking you meant well below 1000 ( sort of like 1993 though not as strong).

[LithiaWx]

Off the top of my head, I don't know if 1993 was the last sub 1000 winter low/Miller A SE winter storm producing low that was near the FL panhandle. I'd have to recheck the maps to make sure none was, say, 995-999ish. These aren't records for which I made a list. However, when I get time, I can check.

When you say deep sub 1000 for your Gulf prediction, do you mean 999 or lower in the Gulf? I was thinking you meant well below 1000 ( sort of like 1993 though not as strong).

 

oh, just sub 1000.  999 or less

[GaWx]

oh, just sub 1000.  999 or less

Ok, whereas that's still quite a bold prediction, it isn't quite as bold as I thought. I thought you meant well below 1000. Still, even just getting sub 1000 is pretty rare based on my memory. However, to make sure, I'd better recheck the maps. Regardless, I still recall many of them being closer to 1010 or so.

[LithiaWx]

Ok, whereas that's still quite a bold prediction, it isn't quite as bold as I thought. I thought you meant well below 1000. Still, even just getting sub 1000 is pretty rare based on my memory. However, to make sure, I'd better recheck the maps. Regardless, I still recall many of them being closer to 1010 or so.

 

My assumption would be it would take phasing in order to get a low sub 1000 in the GoM during the winter months.

[packbacker]

Ok, whereas that's still quite a bold prediction, it isn't quite as bold as I thought. I thought you meant well below 1000. Still, even just getting sub 1000 is pretty rare based on my memory. However, to make sure, I'd better recheck the maps. Regardless, I still recall many of them being closer to 1010 or so.

 

I thought Dec 09 was sub 1000.  It does seem rare, usually it starts to deepen after hitting the atlantic.  But I like the call, I think someone  in the SE sees 15"+ snow this season (not counting the mountains).  Something like 2/73, 3/80, 2/04, 12/10....

[mackerel_sky]

Even though it's looking sketchy for Dec, I'm still going with 12+ inches total snow for this winter when all is said and done. For GSP / Mby

[GaWx]

My assumption would be it would take phasing in order to get a low sub 1000 in the GoM during the winter months.

 

 I agree. Imo, phasing is more a detriment than good for, say, the ATL area because of an increased chance of that causing the low to move further north in its track and result in too much warming for snow to dominate there. In 1993, it worked well but then again, it rained during much of the front side of it over much of the ATL area. Weak lows/overrunning have been enough to produce many of the great ATL snowstorms.

[GaWx]

I thought Dec 09 was sub 1000.  It does seem rare, usually it starts to deepen after hitting the atlantic.  But I like the call, I think someone  in the SE sees 15"+ snow this season (not counting the mountains).  Something like 2/73, 3/80, 2/04, 12/10....

 

Yes, most of the ones that strongly deepen don't really get going with that til they round the corner. 1993 was one exception.

[pcbjr]

I can't tell if you're being tongue in cheek here due to your hatred of hypers like JB.

 

 

[nchighcountrywx]

I want one of those Winter Storm Warning Flags !!

Let 'er rip in the wind and scare the neighbors.

From Bastardi:

Imagine flying that flag in your neighborhood when a storm is coming, to counter all those springtime flags people fly.. the WORST time of the year for the snowlover.. The skull and cross bones show you are not messing around, this is as bad as the climate change extremists are screaming! The northeast wind at 70.. snow, some sleet mixed in.. BECAUSE IT ALWAYS SLEETS AT THE HEIGHT OF THE GREAT ONES! Not enough to stop the blowing and drifting symbol .. and for the old schoolers like me that hand plotted map with more than a 6 mb fall in 3 hours.. The rapid pressure fall is extreme

First batch already sold out!

[Cold Rain]

So how did the Euro look this afternoon? Like MB? I'm guessing it was warm since there are no posts about it.

On another note, was excited to see the new Star Wars trailer. It was kinda ho hum. Can't wait for the movie though. Going to see Mockingjay tonight.

[Cold Rain]

So how did the Euro look this afternoon? Like MB? I'm guessing it was warm since there are no posts about it.

On another note, was excited to see the new Star Wars trailer. It was kinda ho hum. Can't wait for the movie though. Going to see Mockingjay tonight.

NM on the Euro. Just saw it in the other thread.

[pcbjr]

Since there is discussion hereabouts on JB's winter forecast, maybe it's appropriate to set out what he said in Oct so that there is no misperception:

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/public-winter-14-15-forecast

[GaWx]

How many sub 1000mb lows have you seen near the Florida Panhandle in winter?  Was 1993 the last one?  Do you have records going back farther?

 

Marietta,

 OK, I just looked at maps for most of the sig. to major (all of the major) ATL snow and sleet storms produced by Miller A's since 1979. Here is my estimate of the lowest SLP in the GoM:

 

2/12-13/14: 1003

1/9-10/11: 1008

12/25/10: 1004

2/12/10: 997

1/2-3/02: 1007

3/13/93: 976

1/18/92: 1011

1/7/88: 1018

1/22/87: 998

3/24/83: 1002

1/12-13/82: 1007

3/2/80: 1010

2/17-18/79: 1018

 

 So, 2/12/10 was sub 1000 (997). Also, 1/22/87 was 998. Both of those were during El Nino. So, 3 of these 13 since 1979 were sub 1000. Of the 11 that I call major, 3 of 11 of them (27%) were sub 1000. That is a bit higher % than I would have guessed though further back in time may have a lower %. I may go back further when I get time.

 

 I still think that predicting sub 1000 is rather bold since so many big storms weren't sub 1000. Now, I have predicted at least one major ATL winter storm (very likely from a Miller A). However, I have yet to say anything about the lowest SLP in the GoM.

[superjames1992]

I thought Dec 09 was sub 1000.  It does seem rare, usually it starts to deepen after hitting the atlantic.  But I like the call, I think someone  in the SE sees 15"+ snow this season (not counting the mountains).  Something like 2/73, 3/80, 2/04, 12/10....

 

Correct.

 

 

 

It's amazing I saw 5"+ of snow and some ZR out of that one considering the track through southern GA.

 

And then 988 mb over the OBX.

 

[pcbjr]

Well, what the 12Z GFS gave, the 18Z takes away.

 

Models.

 

Kind of reminds me of building models as a kid. Always a few too many pieces, or one or two missing.

 

With glue sticking in the wrong place.

 

[Cold Rain]

Well, what the 12Z GFS gave, the 18Z takes away.

Models.

Kind of reminds me of building models as a kid. Always a few too many pieces, or one or two missing.

With glue sticking in the wrong place.

Sounds like the models need to read the instructions! Haha

[pcbjr]

Sounds like the models need to read the instructions! Haha

 

Tried that. Unfortunately, it was in October. The instructions said to cut wood, seal doors, buy sweats ....

[Cold Rain]

Tried that. Unfortunately, it was in October. The instructions said to cut wood, seal doors, buy sweats ....

Man they must have been really expecting a catastrophic winter if they had the Florida folk chopping up firewood!

[pcbjr]

Man they must have been really expecting a catastrophic winter if they had the Florida folk chopping up firewood!

 

Hey - it can get downright cold here. This is Florida by legislative fiat, Georgia by geography and climate (and NOooooooo - not Waycross) - If we don't burn at least a cord and 1/2, it's been a sucky winter.

[franklin NCwx]

Man they must have been really expecting a catastrophic winter if they had the Florida folk chopping up firewood!

lol

[pcbjr]

lol

Not so loud ....

[JoshM]

They issue wind chill advisories in FL for 20s and 30s, it all depends on what you grow accustomed to. I could go without a fire or heating system, but I'd look like that kid in a christmas story.

[GaWx]

Yes, it was serious.  It is here in the banter because it is a gut guess. 

 

How many sub 1000mb lows have you seen near the Florida Panhandle in winter?  Was 1993 the last one?  Do you have records going back farther?

 

 Complete list of major 32 ATL SN/IP caused by Miller A's: estimate of lowest SLP while in GoM/near Gulf coast (other 7 weren't Miller A)(sub 1000 bolded)

 

2/12-13/14: 1003

1/9-10/11: 1008

2/12/10: 997

1/2-3/02: 1007

3/13/93: 976

1/18/92: 1011

1/7/88: 1018

1/22/87: 998

3/24/83: 1002

1/12-13/82: 1007

2/17-18/79: 1018

3/11/1960 1011

2/15/1958 1001

2/26/1952 1004

3/2/1942 1002

1/23/1940 1006

1/29-30/1936 1009

3/14/1924 1000

12/11-13/1917 1020

1/28/1904 1017

2/23/1901 1012

2/11-12/1899 1017

2/15-16/1895 1017

2/11-12/1895 1012

12/24-5/1894 1020 (barely discernible)

1/18-19/1893 1008

12/3-6/1886 1013

2/12-15/1885 1005

1/23/1885 1003

1/7-8/1884 1010

12/29/1880 1009

1/1/1877 1003

 

 

In ascending order of SLP: median is 1008; only 3 of 32 sub 1000

 

976: nothing even close to this one!! "storm of century" very appropriate name

997

998

1000

1001

1002

1002

1003

1003

1003

1004

1005

1006

1007

1007

1008

1008

1009

1009

1010

1011

1011

1012

1012

1013

1017

1017

1017

1018

1018

1020

1020

[LithiaWx]

Larry,

It seems pretty clear ATL benefits more from weak sliders than amped up storms. Very nice info Larry. Thank you.

[JoshM]

976mb low... I need to look up more on that, bet it was fun