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November Banter


jburns

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Since this is banter, wanted to share some bizarre weather occurrences on my drive from the triad up 77 to Ohio today. Left in a monsoon about 9:30 and stayed that way until we hit the VA line on 77. Then out of nowhere the rain completely stopped. I mean nothing was falling. We went about 4 miles up the mountain, not sure of elevation at that point, and then the monsoon kicked in again. No sooner did I flick the wipers back on it changed immediately to a heavy snow. No mix, no gradual change, i mean it changed within 100 yards on the highway. Two more miles to the top and we were in 3" of snow with accumulations on the road. Most bizarre flip to snow that I have ever witnessed.

Got up to at least 4" and then tapered off all the way into WV. Beautiful snow and an amazing ride.

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Since this is banter, wanted to share some bizarre weather occurrences on my drive from the triad up 77 to Ohio today. Left in a monsoon about 9:30 and stayed that way until we hit the VA line on 77. Then out of nowhere the rain completely stopped. I mean nothing was falling. We went about 4 miles up the mountain, not sure of elevation at that point, and then the monsoon kicked in again. No sooner did I flick the wipers back on it changed immediately to a heavy snow. No mix, no gradual change, i mean it changed within 100 yards on the highway. Two more miles to the top and we were in 3" of snow with accumulations on the road. Most bizarre flip to snow that I have ever witnessed.

Got up to at least 4" and then tapered off all the way into WV. Beautiful snow and an amazing ride.

 

Awesome trip, kvegas-wx!  Thanks for sharing.

 

Hoping to see some snow myself in the morning here in the Asheville area.

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Since this is banter, wanted to share some bizarre weather occurrences on my drive from the triad up 77 to Ohio today. Left in a monsoon about 9:30 and stayed that way until we hit the VA line on 77. Then out of nowhere the rain completely stopped. I mean nothing was falling. We went about 4 miles up the mountain, not sure of elevation at that point, and then the monsoon kicked in again. No sooner did I flick the wipers back on it changed immediately to a heavy snow. No mix, no gradual change, i mean it changed within 100 yards on the highway. Two more miles to the top and we were in 3" of snow with accumulations on the road. Most bizarre flip to snow that I have ever witnessed.

Got up to at least 4" and then tapered off all the way into WV. Beautiful snow and an amazing ride.

 

Should've taken US-52 up through Fancy Gap for more wintry driving fun! :D

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Sounds like winter cancel in the pattern discussion forum!! Warministas in full effect !!

 

Every analogue, forecast, fall teleconnection notwithstanding, you get sustained cold on November in the SE you're gonna get warm in December. It's like corn bread and fried chicken with a side of black eyed peas ... a staple. Same old, same old ......

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Yup pattern change.

 

Denial is something that has to always be worked through when it occurs.   :whistle:

 

Let's hope that it is merely a 2 - 3 week relaxation.   

 

On a serious note, it does concern me that individuals such as Bastardi feel that the ECMWF and JMA are huge thorns in the sides.

 

Best advice I have near term is to watch the progress of the MJO and hope for the best !

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Yup pattern change.

Denial is something that has to always be worked through when it occurs. :whistle:

Let's hope that it is merely a 2 - 3 week relaxation.

On a serious note, it does concern me that individuals such as Bastardi feel that the ECMWF and JMA are huge thorns in the sides.

Best advice I have near term is to watch the progress of the MJO and hope for the best !

lol
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 In similar fashion to the 18Z GFS of yesterday, today's 18Z GFS has a very cold shot..this time for 12/10-12 and not quite as cold. This is being noted mainly for entertainment since credibility that far out is very low but also for the record in case it ends up getting cold ~12/10 since other indicators suggest colder around then.

 

Fwiw:  Today's 12Z GFS is in the proverbial freezer with not one but two strong Arctic outbreaks covering 12/10-14. Yes, low credibility but enough to make me go hmmm due to how I think this winter will go as a whole and also due to those two earlier 18Z runs (of 11/25 and 11/26) that also had Arctic outbreaks for the 12/9-12 period. It has moved closer in forecast time fwiw.

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Fwiw:  Today's 12Z GFS is in the proverbial freezer with not one but two strong Arctic outbreaks covering 12/10-14. Yes, low credibility but enough to make me go hmmm due to how I think this winter will go as a whole and also due to those two earlier 18Z runs (of 11/25 and 11/26) that also had Arctic outbreaks for the 12/9-12 period. It has moved closer in forecast time fwiw.

Would be nice. The pattern the last couple of days looks a little strange:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141128+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

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He's nervous about his forcast busting ! He's now saying a typhoon somewhere on the other side of the world , is going to shake up the pattern and get the pattern back to cold

 

We'll see. Apparently that was a major factor in shifting November cold from thje warmth that had been showing on the weeklies for Nov. as late as the 10/30 run.

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