packbacker Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 It's been killing it at the house, Pack. We've gotten at least a couple of inches here. Atleast we only have to look at the models maybe once a day for the next couple of weeks, atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I've been convinced this will be a warm boring winter for a while. SCE/SAI is fun and all, but it's new research and only one variable. It's also hard to have a cold winter be followed by another cold winter. The hype from the new "thing" has been overwhelming this year....so everyone has in their heads that this year was going to be wall to wall cold...It is not unusual to have a mild or normal December in a El Nino regime...Epic cold is hard to repeat but it does not rule out closer to normal but below and with an active southern stream, there is a good chance Jan/Feb will have plenty of entertainment value. The anomalous cold in November certainly enhanced the hype train. By no means is this winter close to over. Just have a little patience and wait for a more climo favored time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 For anyone depressed about the perceived disappearance of winter going forward for the SE, go look at the 12-16 day GGEM ensembles. While not a guarantee (no model is) it points to what is likely to happen IMO after the 10th of December as the AO appears to stays negative for quite some time. All indicators still point to a great winter here and it is still 30 days until it officially starts (meteorlogical winter is December 5th) but I am sure some will be despondent anyway as that is their nature I thought meteorological winter was on 12/1?? They change everything nowadays!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Atleast we only have to look at the models maybe once a day for the next couple of weeks, atleast. Yeah, that's true. How did today's CFS run for December look? Worse than yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Yeah, that's true. How did today's CFS run for December look? Worse than yesterday? I thought it couldn't look worse than yesterday but it does. They will have to make up a new color soon to show another level of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Yeah, that's true. How did today's CFS run for December look? Worse than yesterday? +10 departures for each month from December to April with very much below average precipitation. But I'll seriously look when I get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I thought it couldn't look worse than yesterday but it does. They will have to make up a new color soon to show another level of warmth. +10 departures for each month from December to April with very much below average precipitation. But I'll seriously look when I get home. Haha awesome!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 By the way, here comes your dry slot, Pack...after 2+ inches of rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Did jshetley get his rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Usually you can't trust models when they show warm on day 7-15. They must be thrown out. Usually you can trust models when they show cold on day 16-20. My head hurts, where is Brick to clarify everything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 +10 departures for each month from December to April with very much below average precipitation. But I'll seriously look when I get home. Haha awesome!! This belongs in the banter because I don't think it's going to happen, with the aleutian low setting up shop after the first week of Dec I think worst case we would be seasonal the rest of the month, cold/warm shots. I still have hope we flip to something more of a sustained wintery pattern by the last 10 days of Dec. I never thought we would get an end to end cold this winter like 76-77, and to be honest who really wants that, but I do think we will have either one big long stretch (6 weeks) or two medium stretches (3-4 weeks) of cold/wintery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 That's only 1.5 above normal. The colors make it look horrendous...something like 20+ departures. I'm guessing that 1.5 is in C? But yeah, I agree about the last part of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 That map is torchin' USA. Hawaii may be normal or below, but every other state is on fire! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 That's only 1.5 above normal. The colors make it look horrendous...something like 20+ departures. I'm guessing that 1.5 is in C? But yeah, I agree about the last part of the month. Actually I posted the wrong one, this one is in K which to get F would be roughly double... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Actually I posted the wrong one, this one is in K which to get F would be roughly double... Was the first map showing standard deviations from the mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Looks like boring weather for two to three weeks...I'll see you guys after Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Was the first map showing standard deviations from the mean? I guess...why don't I just post one that is in C, my brain hurts trying to convert K to F anomaly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 You just got like 5-6 inches yesterday, what the hell else could you ask for?No, it took four days for us to reach those amounts. I was expecting another 2-4 like the forecast said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I don't care if it's some model out of Uganda or Bhutan or Vanuatu, the in me says please someone post something that shows winter doesn't resume until sometime next year .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Ok then. Virtually any way you slice it, it's much too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 So about this clipper, I'm expecting atleast an inch, clippers always bring the goods here!!! #whitethanksgiving!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 26, 2014 Author Share Posted November 26, 2014 I don't care if it's some model out of Uganda or Bhutan or Vanuatu, the in me says please someone post something that shows winter doesn't resume until sometime next year .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 wxsouth busted hard, at least he admitted as much when called out on FB about it. Jason Boyer's map busted hardcore as well. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 39 and rain here at the airport high noon. Cold cold rain when you have a shaved head and left Tobogan at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 lol @ these warm maps. calm down guys, there is just no way the entire USA and a major part of Canada will be above normal. Something's broken I suspect. I've never put any merit or respect towards the CFS. How's it been for this past Summer through now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 lol @ these warm maps. calm down guys, there is just no way the entire USA and a major part of Canada will be above normal. Something's broken I suspect. I've never put any merit or respect towards the CFS. How's it been for this past Summer through now? That's a new one we can put in the bag this year, Shawn. I like it. "It's broken...throw it out!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 That's a new one we can put in the bag this year, Shawn. I like it. "It's broken...throw it out!" lol, that works. from now on any model that shows a big warmup and rain instead of snow is broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Good ole Vivian Brown ! Quote of the day " We are over this with a fine toothed comb". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Actually I posted the wrong one, this one is in K which to get F would be roughly double... Kelvin degrees are the same size as Celsius degrees. The only difference is where 0 is located: in Kelvin it's at absolute zero while in Celsius it's at the temperature where water freezes. Just multiply Kelvin degrees by 1.8 to get the equivalent number of Fahrenheit degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 lol @ these warm maps. calm down guys, there is just no way the entire USA and a major part of Canada will be above normal. Something's broken I suspect. I've never put any merit or respect towards the CFS. How's it been for this past Summer through now? It busted for Nov, which all modeling did so. But other than I went back and peaked at the past few months and it did fairly good, and I went back and looked at the last 3 winters and it missed one of those 9 months. It nailed last winter. But, maybe it struggles in nino/pdo combinations, who knows, I don't really believe the conus will be that warm either but it's good a good track record at the month forecasts. Now, we will still have 4 days of Nov left so let's see what it shows this weekend for Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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