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November Banter

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 Huh?

 

 Lol! I guess you don't know about Tony's moles' planned trip to Savannah. This was planned over a year ago. According to Tony, they drink like a fish! There may not be enough liquor in Savannah to keep them happy.

 

 Lots of rain here in Savannah since last evening! It was heaviest last evening when there were strong thunderstorms.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

pc,

I'm doing my best to prevent severe depression for some of the members who are prone to that during mild "winter" interludes. As long as they can see the light at the end of the tunnel, I figured that they'd be ok. Meanwhile, Tony's drunk moles still refuse to show up here!! smh I'm really getting worried about them. :(

I see the light at the end of the tunnel and it's on the warm , winter cancel train!! All aboard choo choo!
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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted

pain-train.jpg

 

 

FWIW

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu8Iy7XqRKM

 

Once upon a time there was an engineer.

Drove a locomotive both far and near.

Accompanied by a monkey that would sit on a stool

Watching everything the engineer would do

One day the engineer wanted a bite to eat,

He left the monkey sitting on the driver's seat,

The monkey pulled the throttle, the locomotive jumped the gun

And did 80 miles an hour down the mainline run.

Big locomotive right on time, big locomotive coming down the line.

Big locomotive No. 99, left the engineer with a worried mind.

The engineer called up the dispatcher on the phone,

To tell him all about his locomotive was gone.

Dispatcher got on the wire, switch operator to the right,

Cause the monkey's got the main line sewed up tight.

The switch operator got the message on time,

Said there's a Northbound livin' on the same main line,

Open up the switch I'm gonna let him through the hole,

Cause the monkey's got the locomotive under control.

Big locomotive right on time, big locomotive coming down the line.

Big locomotive No. 99, left the engineer with a worried mind.

 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

I've been convinced this will be a warm boring winter for a while. SCE/SAI is fun and all, but it's new research and only one variable. It's also hard to have a cold winter be followed by another cold winter.

Nah man. It's easy. You'll see! Besides, you're always convinced winter is going to be warm and snowless. I just hope you have your snow shovel and sled handy!

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

I thought it was just as common to have back to back cold winters as it was to have back to back warm winters?

I don't consider last winter "cold" as much as I would say it was close to "normal".  I could be wrong, and probably am...lol, but the winter of '10 was one of the steadiest "cold" winters I can remember. It was the last time I pulled out my leather jacket  :(  

 

How much rain for Jamestown, NC?  :pimp:

:P   

 

pain-train.jpg

:lol: 

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

I've been convinced this will be a warm boring winter for a while. SCE/SAI is fun and all, but it's new research and only one variable. It's also hard to have a cold winter be followed by another cold winter.

Yep..i've had the same feeling and thoughts. I've been real lucky the last several years with snow, even already seeing snow this year on november 1st..hard to believe that type of good luck keeps up...especially since it's not unusual for me to go years without seeing a single flake.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

JBurns,

In defense of snowstorm2011 Wxsouth doesn't post here because he thinks charging for his opinion is the best route, save for some snippets on FB. He IMO is right up there with JB in terms of having to take what he says with a major grain of salt since he has a financial incentive to drive traffic to his site. He is a great met who has decided to take an entertainment approach to weather as opposed to calling it as he really sees it. I can't blame him, if he can make money doing what he loves and people want to buy what he sells then everyone wins.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
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Posted

JBurns,

In defense of snowstorm2011 Wxsouth doesn't post here because he thinks charging for his opinion is the best route, save for some snippets on FB. He IMO is right up there with JB in terms of having to take what he says with a major grain of salt since he has a financial incentive to drive traffic to his site. He is a great met who has decided to take an entertainment approach to weather as opposed to calling it as he really sees it. I can't blame him, if he can make money doing what he loves and people want to buy what he sells then everyone wins.

 

I was talking across the board not just about Robert.  We've been bleeding mets for several years.  Trust me, getting DT back doesn't make up for it.

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KChuck

KChuck

Posted
Posted

Ain't it the truth....Ain't it the truth!!!  

 

I know this is more apropos for banter during storm mode but it fits as an answer to jburns so well here...Sorry!   I almost wish the mets could have their own thread without having to listen to the "experts" criticize their thoughts about what it would take for the stars to align for a good snow storm. I send my thanks to all of the mets for their good insights and am VERY appreciative of their work and expertise. 

 

 

32735-cowardly_lion.jpg

 

We nit-pick every post by a met, and then wonder why so many no longer post here.  

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Iceagewhereartthou

Iceagewhereartthou

Posted
Posted

Huge bust on the flood watch here. Every time a watch or warning is issued here it is a fail and that's the truth. Parts of FL surpassed our 4 day rain totals in just one afternoon.

It is a dream feed for the upstate though, especially western upstate. Amazing we can't get this for a winter event. I'd love to see this feed with a winter storm just once in my life...

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

I've been convinced this will be a warm boring winter for a while. SCE/SAI is fun and all, but it's new research and only one variable. It's also hard to have a cold winter be followed by another cold winter.

Widre,

1) As Michelle said, last winter as a whole doesn't really qualify as cold even though January, alone, was very cold and one of the coldest months in many years. Dec. of 2013 was pretty mild for one thing.

2) Even if last winter were to be counted as cold, I don't think that having consecutive cold winters is as hard to get in the SE as you may think and as Mack implied though it has been quite awhile. Examples: 1976-7, 1977-8, and 1978-9; 1968-9 and 1969-70; 1962-3 and 1963-4.

3) It isn't just about the SAI/SCE. Yes, the very high SAI strongly favors a solid -AO. Also, the high SCE increases the available cold air supply. However, we also have a very high chance for a solid +PDO as well as a weak to low end moderate El Niño. If one were to look back in history, one would find that a weak to low end moderate Niño together with a solid -AO and solid +PDO very heavily favors a cold winter in the SE US. One has to go all of the way back to 1977-8 for the last time this combo of indices existed in winter. That isn't even taking into account the extra cold air supply thanks to the high SCE.

Aside: Also, 2009-10 and Dec. 2010- Jan. 2011 were both quite cold.

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Dunkman

Dunkman

Posted
Posted

I was talking across the board not just about Robert.  We've been bleeding mets for several years.  Trust me, getting DT back doesn't make up for it.

I would think financial reasons could be a primary factor. In addition to mets with their own businesses, employers are also much more involved on the internet and certainly have more restrictions than they did a few years ago. I think a lack of substantive discussion could be a reason some have drifted away but I can't say I really buy into the idea that guys are leaving because people are being mean to them. 

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Nah man. It's easy. You'll see! Besides, you're always convinced winter is going to be warm and snowless. I just hope you have your snow shovel and sled handy!

 

So much for getting dry slotted...it figures we over perform in 40F rain storms  :bag:

 

This pic is up to 7am totals...

 

 

B3XZnjwCcAIUEVN.png

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MichaelJ

MichaelJ

Posted
Posted

For anyone depressed about the perceived disappearance of winter going forward for the SE, go look at the 12-16 day GGEM ensembles. While not a guarantee (no model is) it points to what is likely to happen IMO after the 10th of December as the AO appears to stays negative for quite some time. All indicators still point to a great winter here and it is still 30 days until it officially starts (meteorlogical winter is December 5th) but I am sure some will be despondent anyway as that is their nature  :)

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