JoshM Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 *looks at 0z Euro* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 *looks at 0z Euro* Meh, toss the Euro. Go all-in. Pastejob incoming! I wouldn't look at the 00z CRAS, either. (LOL) The CRAS is a hilariously overamped model, as usual. I'm not sure why they even run it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 What is the CRAS? I've never heard of that one before this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Now it's been ten thousand years, man has cried a billion tears[/size] For what, he never knew, now man's reign is through[/size] But through eternal night, the twinkling of starlight[/size] So very far away, maybe it's only yesterday[/size] Our winter in a nutshell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 What is the CRAS? I've never heard of that one before this year. It's a fan favorite troll model in the Mid-Atlantic subforum. I think it's run by a university in Wisconsin or something. I'm not sure why they even bother because it's a terrible model and always way overamped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's a fan favorite troll model in the Mid-Atlantic subforum. I think it's run by a university in Wisconsin or something. I'm not sure why they even bother because it's a terrible model and always way overamped. Gotcha. Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's quite painful to see this coastal TG storm at this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Well, the weather for Orlando looks great for Thursday through Saturday when I am going to be at Disney. Sunny and mid 60s to 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So are the central NC 's over hoping for snow from this storm yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So are the central NC 's over hoping for snow from this storm yet?Never! Not until the final drop of rain falls!I'm so used to overperforming from last winter, LOL. Things look very bleak at this point, though, even out here. A few sloppy flakes at the tail end would be nice, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Well, the weather for Orlando looks great for Thursday through Saturday when I am going to be at Disney. Sunny and mid 60s to 70. I'll send you snow pictures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'll send you snow pictures I think you mean rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think you mean rain. Did not say from here. Going north for TG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ok, somebody killed tropical tidbits I think. What's the next best free model site out there? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ok, somebody killed tropical tidbits I think. What's the next best free model site out there? Thanks. Instant Weather Maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Instant Weather Maps.Sucks compared to tropical tidbits. Also sucks when storms have survived all day then collapse over your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Instant Weather Maps. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Sucks compared to tropical tidbits. Also sucks when storms have survived all day then collapse over your backyard. sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Major torch today. Even 62 degrees in the High Country. We've had cooler days in July! Let's hope this bad pattern does not settle in for a long while. It is going to be a bit difficult to get back to the pattern we had in November. Who knows how long it will take as it could easily be January. A warm Advent and Christmas season is the last thing wanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Major torch today. Even 62 degrees in the High Country. We've had cooler days in July! Let's hope this bad pattern does not settle in for a long while. It is going to be a bit difficult to get back to the pattern we had in November. Who knows how long it will take as it could easily be January. A warm Advent and Christmas season is the last thing wanted. I don't think it will be all that difficult. We can quickly go from a cold pattern to a warm one and vice versa. We can also take a long time to do so. The one thing that seems very likely is a period of moderation heading into December. Everybody can probably agree with that. It might take all month to get back to a cold pattern. It might happen quickly. Very difficult to tell which at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I don't think it will be all that difficult. We can quickly go from a cold pattern to a warm one and vice versa. We can also take a long time to do so. The one thing that seems very likely is a period of moderation heading into December. Everybody can probably agree with that. It might take all month to get back to a cold pattern. It might happen quickly. Very difficult to tell which at this point. Nice post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Major torch today. Even 62 degrees in the High Country. We've had cooler days in July! Let's hope this bad pattern does not settle in for a long while. It is going to be a bit difficult to get back to the pattern we had in November. Who knows how long it will take as it could easily be January. A warm Advent and Christmas season is the last thing wanted. When did a one or two day warm up become a "Pattern Change"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I can't believe we're not seeing seeing wall-to-wall cold all winter! I expected to not have a single above average day from November until early April! Winter cancel!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nice post. Thanks. Here are a couple of posts from the MA crew, talking about the LR. Obviously, the standard LR model caveats apply but anyway.... 12z GEFS mean looks very nice in the long range with the Aleutian low/-EPO combo with a mean trough over the eastern CONUS reestablishing post Day 12. Yea, euro ens last night continue to show the progression of low heights building underneath the aleutian ridge and the scand ridge reasserting. From the looks of things right now, the mild period will be broken up with a couple fronts. Certainly not a snow pattern during the first week of Dec but not wall to wall warm. My wag is a cold outbreak in the center of the country kicks off the transition to a better pattern sometime during the 2nd week of Dec. PNA looks to go positive. One missing thing is the NAO but we're used to that. Maybe a repeat of progressive flow with frequent cold shots and brief moderation in between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 For what it's worth, neither the latest GFS nor the Euro have us torching for any extended period through the end of their respective runs. There may be a warm day or two, but if anything, I would expect seasonal to at times slightly above normal. Certainly not a cold pattern, but no locked in torchy pattern either. Bouts of precipitation and high pressure traversing the northern tier and off the eastern seaboard should keep things pretty seasonal. All in all, not bad as far as pattern relaxations go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I happens every year, and it still surprises me. Why is there a general sense of doom if December isn't wire-to-wire cold? December in the SE always (you know what I mean) features a few warm days. It is common to encounter 70+ degrees days. I can't remember the last time I didn't have some of those riddled within the first MET winter month. How can anyone know WTH kind of "pattern" we'll be in 15+ days from now? Personally, I don't think there will be an established pattern by then. Was it last December that was toasty, and winter doom was proselytized throughout the boards? How can we determine the LR with any certainty when the seasonal transition is so volatile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I happens every year, and it still surprises me. Why is there a general sense of doom if December isn't wire-to-wire cold? December in the SE always (you know what I mean) features a few warm days. It is common to encounter 70+ degrees days. I can't remember the last time I didn't have some of those riddled within the first MET winter month. How can anyone know WTH kind of "pattern" we'll be in 15+ days from now? Personally, I don't think there will be an established pattern by then. Was it last December that was toasty, and winter doom was proselytized throughout the boards? How can we determine the LR with any certainty when the seasonal transition is so volatile? Last Dec was toasty, Jan was cold, Feb finished avg and winter overall for the SE (DJF) was average for temps. But this winter, a lot of people were expecting this historic/cold/snowy winter with all the variables falling into place. And we still may get that, but getting extreme winters is very difficult which is why I never bought into it. Though I do think we have our typical period of better than average chance of getting snow events, mid-Jan to mid-Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Last Dec was toasty, Jan was cold, Feb finished avg and winter overall for the SE (DJF) was average for temps. But this winter, a lot of people were expecting this historic/cold/snowy winter with all the variables falling into place. And we still may get that, but getting extreme winters is very difficult which is why I never bought into it. Though I do think we have our typical period of better than average chance of getting snow events, mid-Jan to mid-Feb. Most winters usually have peaks and valleys of cold/warm, good pattern bad patterns. I'm used to that. However I have to admit that all the good indications of cold have me expecting a longer than normal conducive pattern for snow Dec-Feb. While I do not expect wall to wall cold and snow, I would like to see it colder than average for the three months and over my average snowfall. I'm not the least bit worried about the winter right now. However if I'm being honest, if we're in this not so great pattern still in mid December I'd be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Been away most of the day, let me see if I have the gist, in a brief synopsis: No snow under 3000' per Marietta Cold rain for everyone else Nobody saw the 70s today for GA per Max Torch for two weeks Things looking up for last half of Dec! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Been away most of the day, let me see if I have the gist, in a brief synopsis: No snow under 3000' per Marietta Cold rain for everyone else Nobody saw the 70s today for GA per Max Torch for two weeks Things looking up for last half of Dec! Sounds just about right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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