mackerel_sky Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I'm just glad I'm not in the bullseye 7 days out!! That always works out great as well! ;( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 You actually said 7 and someone else said 5. So let me clarify, if it's showing warm past 7 days discard, if a storm shows up then just hope it sticks? I made another post after that saying futile was the wrong choice of words, but that I doubt any warm ups the models show at 10 days because they have yet to materialize that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 You actually said 7 and someone else said 5. So let me clarify, if it's showing warm past 7 days discard, if a storm shows up then just hope it sticks? Sticks??? What about sun angle?? Soil temps??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Sticks??? What about sun angle?? Soil temps??? With a new moon tomorrow, by Black Friday we should only be at about 30% moon coverage. That should limit some of the night time sun effects on our snow. Should allow temp to cool a bit more as well overnight. It would be a shame to get a storm during a full moon. The reflective elements of the sun against the moon are really stout in November. NTMEI = Night Time Moon Effect Index I'm going with a 3/10 on my NTMEI meter for the potential storm. Little to no effect anticipated from said index, this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 With a new moon tomorrow, by Black Friday we should only be at about 30% moon coverage. That should limit some of the night time sun effects on our snow. Should allow temp to cool a bit more as well overnight. It would be a shame to get a storm during a full moon. The reflective elements of the sun against the moon are really stout in November. NTMEI = Night Time Moon Effect Index I'm going with a 3/10 on my NTMEI meter for the potential storm. Little to no effect anticipated from said index, this time. I think they sell NTMEI meters on a late night infomercial! Early Christmas present? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Dave Shcwartz ! One of the best TWC ever had!!! Glad to see him back!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 *looks at 18z GFS* The trend is your friend Temps falling nicely here, 14 degrees in the past 2 hours, 58 ~ 4pm, now 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 *looks at 18z GFS* The trend is your friend Temps falling nicely here, 14 degrees in the past 2 hours, 58 ~ 4pm, now 44. Somebody needs to post a map for Brick to repurpose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I expected this place to be on fire with that 18Z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I expected this place to be on fire with that 18Z GFS run. Surface temps look crappy for you guys, if it was January I'd be somewhat excited since it does have a progressive look that you southerners like, but the airmass is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Surface temps look crappy for you guys, if it was January I'd be somewhat excited since it does have a progressive look that you southerners like, but the airmass is not good.I don't like progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Surface temps look crappy for you guys, if it was January I'd be somewhat excited since it does have a progressive look that you southerners like, but the airmass is not good. Sadly BL can be a problem down here in Dec, much less Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I'm trying to remember a time when this area got screwed out of a decent storm due to BL temperatures and I'm coming up empty. I know we've missed out on some marginal events due to a torching BL, but I'm not so sure about a major storm. It can still be a problem in that 33F/snow doesn't accumulate nearly as well as 29F/snow, of course. It's almost assuredly happened, but I can't think of a time since I really started following weather more closely in 2009. People might say January 2013, but this area got 3.5" of heavy, wet snow from that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Question.. what are BL temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I'm trying to remember a time when this area got screwed out of a decent storm due to BL temperatures and I'm coming up empty. I know we've missed out on some marginal events due to a torching BL, but I'm not so sure about a major storm. It can still be a problem in that 33F/snow doesn't accumulate nearly as well as 29F/snow, of course. It's almost assuredly happened, but I can't think of a time since I really started following weather more closely in 2009. People might say January 2013, but this area got 3.5" of heavy, wet snow from that one... I think we're good to go if the temps aloft are what's advertised, very cold air in the heavens , still need to look at the bufkit, curious to see how some areas are showing pellets instead of rain/snow. Bout sums up the weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Question.. what are BL temps? Boundary Layer = temps near the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Got it. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I don't like progressive. Progressive systems, progressive thought, or just progressives in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Progressive systems, progressive thought, or just progressives in general? 3 for 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Progressive systems, progressive thought, or just progressives in general? lol.. nailed it, mostly all three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Winter cancel!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Winter cancel!!!!!!!! blasphemy!!!!!!!! When the 0z GFS comes a knockin', the board will come a rockin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 blasphemy!!!!!!!! When the 0z GFS comes a knockin', the board will come a rockin'! I'll bet some folks are staying up for the Euro tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I'll bet some folks are staying up for the Euro tonight. Staying up? I don't sleep until April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I'll bet some folks are staying up for the Euro tonight.No, people will be drunk and depressed after the GFS , passed out for the euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I'll bet some folks are staying up for the Euro tonight. LOL, you lightweights. I'll be up for the 06z GFS, just like every other real weather enthusiast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Look at this insane heat island in Atlanta. This is at 1030pm it changes every 15 minutes. But it is 51 in the center of ATL, but it seems when the temp is lower at the 38 degree mark just south of the 51 reading, KATL reports the warmer one (51). When theoretically is should be 38. http://www.griffin.uga.edu/aemn/cgi-bin/AEMN.pl?site=AAAA&report=XT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Look at this insane heat island in Atlanta. This is at 1030pm it changes every 15 minutes. But it is 51 in the center of ATL, but it seems when the temp is lower at the 38 degree mark just south of the 51 reading, KATL reports the warmer one (51). When theoretically is should be 38. http://www.griffin.uga.edu/aemn/cgi-bin/AEMN.pl?site=AAAA&report=XT huh? it's reporting the airport weather station temp only.. similar effect here at Chattanooga Lovell Field, only on a smaller scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Heat islands FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 We actually have warmer temps at higher elevations around here.. guess there's an inversion tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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