November Banter

[Hvward]

Very cool, can you tell me me what kind of equipment and technique you used?

 

Fantastic work, Hvward!  Beautiful pictures, good choice in music, and a good length.  Your time lapses are superb, and I like how you do the slow zoom as well.

 

 

Thanks guys!!  Marietta I have a typical DSLR camera(Nikon D3100 very entry level), a fantastic lens (Tokina 11-16mm), and a great program called Panolapse that complies the time-lapses and puts the zoom on so I don't have to buy or carry around rails to get the moving effect.  I like to do 4 second intervals and very my f stop but usually have the shutter open for at least 1/4 seconds because it puts a neat effect on the clouds.  The sunset at the beginning is 10 sec intervals though but that is the only one that isn't 4 I believe.  Usually I set my camera up and put my intervalometer on 4 secs and leave it for about 20 minutes.  That gives me 300 pictures which equates to a 10-sec time-lapse @30 frames per second.  If you guys have any other questions or want to do attempt it, I would be more then happy to help.  I just started less then a year ago and anyone can do it, it just takes a lot of patience.  It is truly the best way imo to remember the places you have been!

[FLweather]

Not good for NC. But if so guess that guy is at one of the best hospitals to be treated for Ebola.

http://www.wral.com/patient-at-duke-hospital-being-monitored-for-possible-ebola/14141848/

[featherwx]

Not good for NC. But if so guess that guy is at one of the best hospitals to be treated for Ebola.

http://www.wral.com/patient-at-duke-hospital-being-monitored-for-possible-ebola/14141848/

I live less than a mile from Duke Hospital. Luckily though I haven't bought into the media's hype, so I can continue to sleep easy tonight.

[mackerel_sky]

Not good for NC. But if so guess that guy is at one of the best hospitals to be treated for Ebola.

http://www.wral.com/patient-at-duke-hospital-being-monitored-for-possible-ebola/14141848/

They haven't released a name or age, has anyone seen Brick lately?????

[FallsLake]

First fantasy snow storm (more SC snow???):

 

Looks like a nice storm for SC & NC

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=384&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141103+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=77

 

There would be more accumulations in central NC if the model went out to day 17 (ha ha)

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=03&model_init_hh=06&fhour=384&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[Cold Rain]

First fantasy snow storm (more SC snow???):

Looks like a nice storm for SC & NC

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=384&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141103+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=77

There would be more accumulations in central NC if the model went out to day 17 (ha ha)

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=03&model_init_hh=06&fhour=384&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Sun angle FTL?

[mackerel_sky]

Sun angle FTL?

I only got to 27 this am due to Columbia snowpack!

[FallsLake]

Sun angle FTL?

...and surface temps, ground temps, web bulb temps, 850 temps, strength/placement of high, time of year, and etc. I think we're a lock for this storm.  

[buckeyefan1]

I only got to 27 this am due to Columbia snowpack!

It looks like CAE bottomed out at 30 although mby did drop into the upper 20's early this morning   

 

 

btw......I still can't believe CAE recorded a T of snow on November 1st    

[burgertime]

Just saw on facebook that big upgrades are coming to the GFS (probably old news here). SV has access to it so I'll be checking it out to see how it differs from the current GFS. 

[Shawn]

Just saw on facebook that big upgrades are coming to the GFS (probably old news here). SV has access to it so I'll be checking it out to see how it differs from the current GFS. 

It's supposed to be great.  I believe it goes operational on December 17th?  Wxbell and tropical tidbits have it also.  Tropical tidbits being the best free source I know of.

[packfan98]

Just saw on facebook that big upgrades are coming to the GFS (probably old news here). SV has access to it so I'll be checking it out to see how it differs from the current GFS. 

 

It seems like every time a model has an "upgrade" it still has the same biases and still ranks the same when compared to the other models.  Does anyone have the link handy that shows how the models have been performing recently.  It's usually Euro, GFS, UKMET, Canadian, right?

[Shawn]

Well, this is out in LALA land but, wtf?  Another?

 

[Brick Tamland]

First fantasy snow storm (more SC snow???):

 

Looks like a nice storm for SC & NC

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=384&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141103+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=77

 

There would be more accumulations in central NC if the model went out to day 17 (ha ha)

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=03&model_init_hh=06&fhour=384&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

 

That would be awesome to get a little snow in November. Just a preview of what's to come this winter.

[burgertime]

Well, this is out in LALA land but, wtf?  Another?

 

 

 

 

I've always noticed that GFS seems to default to ULL systems in the LR that are always overly amped up. It's like the computer just says, "well it's a long way off there will probably be an ULL somewhere". 

[superjames1992]

First fantasy snow storm (more SC snow???):

 

Looks like a nice storm for SC & NC

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=384&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141103+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=77

 

There would be more accumulations in central NC if the model went out to day 17 (ha ha)

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=03&model_init_hh=06&fhour=384&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

 

I'll make the thread when I get home later.

[frazdaddy]

I'll make the thread when I get home later.

How much for Moncure ? Do I have time to hook up the plow?

[FallsLake]

How much for Moncure ? Do I have time to hook up the plow?

Oh man the 12z GFS lost our day 16 storm. Who would have guessed..... 

[frazdaddy]

Oh man the 12z GFS lost our day 16 storm. Who would have guessed..... 

Too late I hitched up anyway. I'm like Linus in the pumkin patch.

[superjames1992]

Oh man the 12z GFS lost our day 16 storm. Who would have guessed.....

It always does this then brings the storm back a week out. We're still on track for a blockbuster historic snowstorm in a couple weeks.

[frazdaddy]

It always does this then brings the storm back a week out. We're still on track for a blockbuster historic snowstorm in a couple weeks.

I knew it, I'm gonna just sit on my tractor and wait.

[FallsLake]

It always does this then brings the storm back a week out. We're still on track for a blockbuster historic snowstorm in a couple weeks.

Then lose it again at day 5 to then slowly bring it back up to the event.  I only half joke...it seems the models (or at least the GFS) always has a problem around day 5.

[Solak]

Here's some off the wall banter for y'all! Raleigh area folks will appreciate it.

 

Earlier this afternoon, I had to take my wife out for a routine post-op Dr. visit. From here, 6 miles East of Clayton, through town on Bus. 70, on to 40/440, up and around the Beltline to exit 5, down Lake Boone Trail, 2 blocks past Rex Hospital. Never hit a red or yellow traffic light, never had to bring the car to a complete stop the entire trip!!! 32.4 miles in 41 minutes!!!

 

Downside, we ended up 25 minutes early for her appointment, so she had to sit and squirm in her wheelchair in all that extra time Good news, though - the surgeon doesn't want to see her for another year as long as things continue well for her

[mackerel_sky]

Tonight's sunset, sideways !

[Isopycnic]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[mackerel_sky]

So , we are inside two weeks from the DD2 get together! What's the haps? Is it gonna be snowed out ? That would have to be one of the most ironic situations ever! A wxgeek gtg gets postponed or cancelled due to snow in CLT , in November, cue Alanis Morisette!! .

The cold appears to be here about then, just need the moisture!

[Cold Rain]

Here's some off the wall banter for y'all! Raleigh area folks will appreciate it.

Earlier this afternoon, I had to take my wife out for a routine post-op Dr. visit. From here, 6 miles East of Clayton, through town on Bus. 70, on to 40/440, up and around the Beltline to exit 5, down Lake Boone Trail, 2 blocks past Rex Hospital. Never hit a red or yellow traffic light, never had to bring the car to a complete stop the entire trip!!! 32.4 miles in 41 minutes!!!

Downside, we ended up 25 minutes early for her appointment, so she had to sit and squirm in her wheelchair in all that extra time Good news, though - the surgeon doesn't want to see her for another year as long as things continue well for her

That's amazing. The only time I've pulled something like that off was late at night. Even then, one or two lights may have been "questionably not red"

[tnweathernut]

Brick,  you are being extremely reasonable and optimistic this year.  You won't be winning, or even in the running for, weenie of the year this year if you keep it up, but just wanted to say congrats.  I have actually liked your posts so far this year.  Keep it up.

[jburns]

( Good news, though - the surgeon doesn't want to see her for another year as long as things continue well for her

Good news. I remember well my first, "see you in a year" after a period of monthly doctor visits for my heart issues. Feeling so good these days, I wouldn't go back at all if the SOBs wouldn't cut off my prescriptions.

[LithiaWx]

It sure does for Atlanta. I'd say that's plenty of samples.

 

It's not scientific, period.  The current ESNO is not even weak nino yet, it may end up there but are we basing this on the current state or weak nino?  Also what constitutes a normal or cold November or a normal/cold/warm winter?  The stats don't prove anything.  I hate to be that harsh but they are of no predictive value as you can manipulate those numbers a bunch of different ways and come out with a different look.