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November Obs


jburns

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Still hanging In the 40s with full sun and right at the peak heating hour. Remarkable for 1st day of November. Glad to see mack and the upstate crowd get pAid back for all the dangling carrots that showed up on models last year putting them in the bullseye chasing storms, only to have it yanked out as the storm unfolded.

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Holy low dewpoints batman!! I  just noticed something rather impressive. I noticed that a few stations around highlands, brasstown reported dewpoints early this morning of -15 to -25F around 3000 feet. At first I thought it was an error..but several stations showed similar dewpoints. Well checking the observed soundings from EET, FFC, TLH, etc..dewpoints from 850mb to 925mb were as low as -40c! Now it's not unusual to have really low dewpoints at 850mb but to have -40c  as low as 935mb along the gulf coast seems incredible. the nam even shows -50c dewpoints at 925mb as you can see below over the gulf coast! 

 

On top of that, and I guess this has to be an error, twister is showing the gfs and nam with 850mb dewpoints of -77c at 850mb. I looked at another source and it shows dewpoints more along the -40 go -50c.  Either way, I don't think have never seen dewpoints that low at those levels before, even way up in canada and the northern plains.

 

I know this isn't the most exciting thing in the world but to me it's pretty damn amazing to see such an extremely dry airmass, especially as low as 925mb.

 

Here is the twister sounding data for southern alabama for example. Throwing that out as error though, check out the maps. Just an incredible pocket of dry air.

GFS Text Sounding | 06 UTC Mon 03 Nov 2014 | Latitude: 32.0000 | Longitude: -87.0000
PRES	HGHT	TEMP	DWPT	RELH	MIXR	DRCT	SKNT	TWTB	TVRT	THTA	THTE	THTV
1019.0	77	5.6	-2.4	56	3.2	66	7	2.5	6.1	277.2	286.1	277.7
1000.0	232	8.6	-4.3	40	2.8	70	15	3.5	9.0	281.7	289.8	282.2
975.0	442	10.2	-9.5	24	1.9	75	21	3.0	10.5	285.4	291.1	285.7
950.0	657	10.2	-17.1	13	1.1	79	21	1.6	10.3	287.5	290.8	287.7
925.0	879	12.1	-42.7	1	0.1	80	20	0.6	12.1	291.6	292.0	291.6
900.0	1108	12.8	-42.3	1	0.1	81	18	0.7	12.8	294.6	295.0	294.6
850.0	1586	11.7	-78.2	0	0.0	78	14	-0.7	11.7	298.3	298.3	298.3
800.0	2090	10.2	-43.9	1	0.1	57	14	-1.6	10.2	301.9	302.3	301.9
750.0	2623	7.2	-8.4	32	2.7	40	19	0.5	7.7	304.4	313.1	304.9
700.0	3187	4.2	-5.0	51	3.8	25	21	-0.1	4.9	307.1	319.1	307.8 

GFS_3_2014110306_F06_DPTC_850_MB.png

 

Nam 925mb dewpoints. -50 over the gulf!

 

NAM_221_2014110306_F06_DPTC_925_MB.png

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Here is shreveport's observed sounding from yesterday showing -38c at 930mb. In contrast, the 12z observed sounding today is an incredible 46c warmer at 8c! I don't know what's more impressive...the actual dewpoints at that level or the difference between the dewpoint at 930mb and the surface. Again, I know dewpoints at levels like 850mb can get really low but on average I think the coldest I have ever noticed was -30c to -40c but that was during the winter and certainly not this time of year and certainly not -50c as the nam/gfs showed as far south as cuba yesterday lol

 

Maybe I'm wrong and it happens more often than I've noticed but either way I'm impressed.

 

GFS_3_2014110212_F12_DPTC_850_MB.png

72248 SHV Shreveport Reg Observations at 12Z 02 Nov 2014

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
   PRES   HGHT   TEMP   DWPT   RELH   MIXR   DRCT   SKNT   THTA   THTE   THTV
    hPa     m      C      C      %    g/kg    deg   knot     K      K      K 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1019.0     79    3.8    0.5     79   3.91    140      2  275.5  286.3  276.1
 1017.0     95    4.2   -0.8     70   3.56    138      4  276.0  286.0  276.6
 1000.0    237    5.0   -2.0     61   3.32    125     19  278.1  287.5  278.7
  991.7    305    5.7   -3.6     51   2.96    125     21  279.5  288.0  280.0
  986.0    352    6.2   -4.8     45   2.73    125     20  280.5  288.4  280.9
  958.0    588    6.8   -6.2     39   2.52    125     14  283.4  290.8  283.8
  955.5    610    7.4   -9.6     29   1.94    125     13  284.2  290.0  284.5
  949.0    666    8.8  -18.2     13   0.97    139     13  286.2  289.2  286.4
  943.0    718    9.4  -33.6      3   0.24    151     12  287.3  288.1  287.4
  930.0    833   10.8  -38.2      2   0.15    179     11  289.9  290.4  289.9
  925.0    878   10.8  -38.2      2   0.15    190     11  290.4  290.9  290.4
  921.0    914   10.7  -38.3      2   0.15    195     11  290.6  291.1  290.6
  889.0   1208    9.8  -39.2      2   0.14    229      8  292.6  293.1  292.6
  887.8   1219    9.8  -39.2      2   0.15    230      8  292.8  293.3  292.8
  855.8   1524   10.5  -38.5      2   0.16    215      2  296.6  297.2  296.6
  852.0   1560   10.6  -38.4      2   0.16    212      2  297.0  297.6  297.1
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One more thing to show how impressive this is. Gfs dewpoints world wide at 850mb.

 

Also, over at twister the nam, gfs, and ruc are still showing dewpoints of -70s at 825 to 875mb over the southeast with Rh of 0%. If you go to plymouth, even though it has 850mb dewpoints of "only" near the -38 to -40c..it is showing Rh values at that level of  0.0000100%. Some of this has to be in error but if so, why these extremely low dewpoints are making it into every run and on every model is a bit baffling to me. I don't see anything from ncep about it on the model/upper air ingest page.

post-12-0-91981100-1415046174_thumb.gif

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:lmao: ...RECORD DRIEST OCTOBER ON RECORD AT TONOPAH AIRPORT, NEVADA...

NO PRECIPITATION WAS RECORDED AT TONOPAH AIRPORT, NEVADA DURING
OCTOBER 2014. THIS TIES THE RECORD FOR THE LEAST AMOUNT EVER
RECORDED DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. NO PRECIPITATION WAS
PREVIOUSLY RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF OCTOBER DURING 1999, 1995,
1967, 1966 AND 1954.

RECORDS AT TONOPAH AIRPORT EXTEND BACK TO 1954.

 

And FYI... I have my own EMWIN receiver and I get these Record Event Reports (RER) from all over the country and have them emailed to me (as well as posted on my FB page automatically). If anyone else would like to get them, PM me with your email address, and you can try it out. If you don't like it, I can take you off the list, it's that easy. It's kinda cool seeing what records are getting set on a daily basis around the country.  

 

Just got another couple:

 

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT CHEYENNE WYOMING...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.74 INCHES WAS SET AT CHEYENNE WYOMING ON
NOVEMBER 2. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.45 SET IN 1889.

 

 

 

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT QUILLAYUTE WA AIRPORT...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 4.2 INCHES WAS SET AT QUILLAYUTE WA AIRPORT
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 3.33 SET IN 1971.

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